How including Howard in Watson deal would impact Dolphins’ cap. And more Watson fallout

A six-pack of Miami Dolphins notes on a Thursday:

▪ One question we’ve been asked several times this week: Would it help or hurt the Dolphins’ salary cap if All-Pro cornerback Xavien Howard were included in a hypothetical deal for Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson, who may or may not be traded?

The answer: It would help.

But it also would badly damage the Dolphins’ chances of replicating their defensive success in 2020 (sixth in points allowed, first in takeaways, first in third-down defense).

Here’s the short version: If Howard is on the Dolphins in 2021 — under terms of his current contract — his cap hit would be $13.5 million.

But if he’s traded by the Dolphins, his 2021 Dolphins dead money cap charge would be $4.2 million.

So that’s a savings of $9.3 million if he’s traded.

But the savings in a Houston/Miami trade involving Watson and Howard wouldn’t be quite that much for this reason: If Howard is in the deal, it seems unlikely that Miami also would include both its first-round picks (3 and 18). One presumably would be included, but not both.

If Miami keeps the pick at No. 3, that would be a $4.2 million 2021 cap charge on Miami’s books. If Miami keeps the pick at No. 18, that would be a $1.9 million 2021 cap charge on Miami’s books. Miami would have no cap charge on any draft pick that’s traded.

So the cap benefit of trading Howard would be slightly offset by keeping a high draft pick that otherwise would be traded in a Watson deal. Plus, the loss of Howard would be damaging, if not devastating, to Miami’s defense.

So why is the idea of trading Howard even a discussion? At this point, it’s not anything Miami is considering.

But here’s the background: Howard has gone from the highest-paid cornerback in the league (when he signed the five-year, $75 million extension in 2019) to the sixth-highest paid. He will be 11th among cornerbacks in cash payments in 2021.

As a result, Howard plans to ask the team to renegotiate his contract in the coming months, as colleague Armando Salguero reported during this past season and as a source has consistently told us for months.

Whether the Dolphins will acquiesce is dubious. If the Dolphins say no, a trade request from Howard wouldn’t surprise me because of this: Last October, Howard’s former agent indicated to the Dolphins that a trade might be in everybody’s best interests but didn’t formally ask for one. At that time, the Dolphins indicated publicly and privately that they had no interest in trading Howard.

I would be surprised if that changes. Howard indicated late in the season that he’s happy here. But that doesn’t change the fact he wants more money.

It’s important to note that Howard’s camp — led by his new representative, prominent South Florida-based agent David Canter — isn’t discussing the matter out of respect to the Dolphins. They intend to keep this private.

If a Watson deal materializes, and if including Howard in a proposed deal then significantly reduces the draft haul due Houston, it’s something that might be considered. But I don’t believe it’s something the Dolphins should do.

▪ Based on several conversations with people knowledgeable about the situation, I’m convinced the situation with Howard wouldn’t have reached this point if Miami had not given Byron Jones a deal with far more guaranteed money than Howard’s.

This is nothing personal between the two cornerbacks; they like and respect each other, from all indications. But Howard doesn’t believe he should be earning less than Jones, and in theory, he’s right.

Jones is averaging $16.5 million on an annual average while Howard is averaging $15 million. Jones received $46 million fully guaranteed compared to $27.2 million for Howard.

Next season, Jones is due to make $14 million, Howard $12.1 million.

Jones is a quality cornerback, an exemplary person and holds himself fully accountable when he doesn’t play up to everyone’s standards. The defense is better with him.

But ultimately, Miami would have had more cap space and less issues with Howard if they had bypassed Jones in free agency and instead signed a less expensive cornerback such as James Bradberry (three years, $45 million from Giants last summer and had three interceptions in 2020), Kendall Fuller (four years, $40 million from Washington and had four interceptions) or Logan Ryan (eventually took one year and $9 million to play safety for the Giants).

This past season, Jones had a 117.0 passer rating in his coverage area, compared with 70.1 for Bradberry, 72.6 for Fuller and 105.8 for Ryan, who shifted to safety.

Howard’s passer rating against was a ridiculously good 53.0.

▪ You could make a very strong case that Howard deserves more money, considering he has 22 interceptions since 2017 (by far the most in the NFL since that time), despite missing 15 games. He’s the best cornerback in football and deserves to be the highest-paid corner on the team.

But it would be highly unusual for a team to acquiesce to a request for more money on a contract that was extended less than two years ago and still has four years left.

So I will be surprised if it happens, whether it should happen or not.

That said, there would be one way where Miami could give him more money and lower his 2021 cap hit.

Here’s how: Hypothetically, the Dolphins could tell Howard that they’re reducing his $12.1 million (nonguaranteed) base salary — which would be paid over 17 weeks in 2021 — to $1 million.

To make it up to him, they could immediately give him an $11 million signing bonus to cover the difference. What’s more — as part of my hypothetical — they could throw in another $5 million in that signing bonus to reward him for his good work. So that’s a $16 million signing bonus, including $5 million in new money.

Because signings bonuses are prorated, that would add $4 million to Howard’s cap hit in 2022, 2023 and 2024, but would considerably lessen his 2021 cap hit, which would be $6.4 million in this specific hypothetical ($1 million in base salary, $4 million in proration for new signing bonus and $1.4 million in protection from his original signing bonus).

That would give Miami a greater cushion against the cap in filling other needs this offseason.

The negative to doing that, from a Dolphins perspective: That would be $16 million in cash that Steve Ross would need to pay — in one lump sum — this spring that he wouldn’t otherwise need to pay. (Remember, the $12.1 million base salary that Howard is owed in 2021 isn’t paid until during the season.) Also, it would add money to Miami’s cap in 2022, 2023 and 2024.

▪ It has been fascinating to see the difference in reporting of the Watson story nationally. ESPN’s insiders Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen have warned not to underestimate how angry Watson is, have suggested there’s a good chance he will be traded (while stopping short of saying he definitely would be) and (in Mortensen’s case) repeatedly mentioned the Dolphins as a preferred option.

NFL Network reporters have noted that teams are calling Houston but that there’s nothing to suggest — at this point — that he’s going to be traded.

So somebody watching ESPN and NFL Network likely emerge with entirely different views of how this will play out.

Schefter and Mortensen have built up years of credibility with big stories, which is why I would consider a trade a real possibility, even as others downplay it. Schefter was among those who reported throughout the 2019 season that there was legitimate chance Tom Brady would leave the Patriots, even as others were dismissing that notion.

▪ Schefter said something interesting this week, that the way the Watson story is going to unfold “is going to be an NBA situation. It doesn’t matter who’s offering what. Deshaun dictates where he wants to go.”

But there will presumably be a limit to this. If Watson tells the Texans he wants to be traded only to Miami, the Dolphins can’t expect to get him for a package far below his value for one simple reason: He’s under contract through 2025 and Houston could always call his bluff and tell him he’s not being traded unless Miami meets all of Houston’s trade demands. Watson assuredly isn’t going to hold out until the end of his contract.

Yes, the no-trade clause gives Watson one advantage. But NBA stars Anthony Davis and James Harden had the benefit of having far less time left on their contracts when they asked for trades than Watson does — which compels teams to move more quickly.

Aaron Wilson, the Texans’ beat writer for The Houston Chronicle, reported Thursday that “Miami has a quarterback with upside in Tua Tagovailoa, but that could be a deal-breaker for the Texans. Tagovailoa isn’t regarded as a quarterback the Texans will view as an adequate replacement for Watson, according to multiple league sources.”

▪ We hear the Dolphins’ decision to replace offensive line coach Steve Marshall with Miami’s previous assistant offensive line coach, Lemuel Jeanpierre, was well-received by players. Marshall wasn’t disliked by players. But the message conveyed to us is that Jeanpierre is a better fit with a young offensive line.

Not only is Jeanpierre, at 33, considerably younger than the 66-year-old Marshall, but Jeanpierre played in the NFL for six seasons with Seattle.

“Lemuel is way more relatable, has a contemporary approach,” one team source said. “He did a good job with the rookies.”