India slowly shifts from Russian arms and oil, eyeing closer ties with the West

As the world's largest importer of weapons, India is gradually distancing itself from its principal supplier Russia, due to it’s diminished capacity to deliver ammunition and spare parts amid the war in Ukraine, Reuters reported on Jan. 29.

India's careful approach in this distancing is dictated by the desire to prevent closer ties between Moscow and Beijing.

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India is “slowly pivoting towards the West” while the United States aims to strengthen ties in the Indo-Pacific region to counter China's rise and reduce the India’s traditional reliance on Russia.

Russia has supplied 65% of India's weapon purchases totaling over $60 billion over the past two decades, but the war in Ukraine has accelerated the push for diversification, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

"We are not likely to sign any major military deal with Russia," said Nandan Unnikrishnan, a Russia expert at New Delhi think tank the Observer Research Foundation. "That would be a red line for Washington."

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Russia has publicly called on India to strengthen defense ties, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi has focused on domestic production with Western technologies, say experts and officials.

India's defense minister announced plans to spend nearly $100 billion on defense orders over the next decade, Rueters reported.

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Last year, India and the United States signed an agreement with General Electric to produce jet engines in India for its fighters, marking the first such concession by the U.S. to a non-ally country. Plans were also made for the U.S. to "accelerate" technology cooperation and joint production in various areas, from air combat to intelligence.

The intensification of India-U.S. relations heightens concerns over China, as Indian and Chinese troops have faced off along the Himalayan border since 2020, resulting in the deadliest clash in five decades with 24 soldiers killed. The nuclear-armed neighbors fought in 1962, and their over 2,000-mile (3,200 km) border remains disputed, Reuters noted.

India must maintain a balance in its relations with Russia, being the largest buyer of its weapons and, since 2022, its oil. Halting such trade would push Moscow closer to Beijing, the only other major economy it deals with.

"Purchasing weapons buys you influence,” a retired security service official told Reuters. “By distancing from them, you make them more dependent on China,"

Trade with Russia in energy and other sectors helps "keep her as far away from China as possible,” added analyst Unnikrishnan.

Despite such a cautious stance, India increased imports of Saudi oil in December as payment problems drove its Russian oil buys to an 11-month low, Reuters reported earlier. India's oil imports from Russia in December declined between 16% and 22%, while imports of Saudi oil rose by about 4%, according to Reuters’ calculations.

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Despite the war against Ukraine, Russian weapon exports have largely stabilized, though concerns remain. "As the Ukraine war stretches, it raises questions if Russia will be able to give us spare parts," said Swasti Rao, Eurasia expert at the state-run Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. "It is fuelling the diversification.”

India intends to purchase French jet fighters for its newest aircraft carrier and to create submarines using French, German, or Spanish technology, as well as fighters with American and French engines, Reuters sources said.

Russian and Soviet military technology comprises about 60% of India's military equipment, Reuters said. New Delhi would need Russian parts for maintenance and repair for nearly two decades, according to officials.

Last year, the Indian Air Force stated that Russia failed to deliver a major platform, which was not named, and reported a delay of over a year in the delivery of parts for an air defense system India purchased in 2018 for $5.5 billion, according to two Indian military officials.

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