Indiana getting less snow, but why?
Feb. 17—ANDERSON — The widespread perception that Indiana's winters are becoming less snowy carries with it a degree of truth backed up by recent historical data.
But according to several climatologists around the state, understanding that data in context is necessary in order to gain a fuller picture of the potential environmental consequences.
"Snow is a very difficult parameter to measure," said Beth Hall, director of the Indiana State Climate Office at Purdue University. "I think that folks are ready to hear the answer of, 'Oh, climate change is driving it.' But I wouldn't be so quick to attribute climate change to any of this, necessarily."
According to a recent study by Climate Central, a nonprofit organization that conducts scientific research on issues related to energy consumption and climate change, snowfall rates nationwide have declined dramatically over the past 50 years.
This year, portions of Indiana are on track for one of the least white winters in their history. Prior to Friday Indianapolis, for example, had seen only a little over 4 inches of snow so far, which would be the third lowest total since the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration began keeping such records 122 years ago.
Other cities — especially in the northern part of the state, which historically receives up to three times as much snow as other areas — may still be recording relatively robust snowfall totals, but those numbers have also plummeted. South Bend, near the southeast corner of Lake Michigan, stands at 22.2 inches for the season, but that number would be nearly 50 inches below the city's average annual total during the 2010s.
Combined with a steady increase in average temperature — the state has grown 1.2 degrees warmer since 1895, and that number is projected to be 5 to 6 degrees by mid-century, according to a report from the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment — climate change is a logical, if imperfect, scapegoat, Hall said. Recent data she has studied reveals "more of an oscillation pattern," she said, characterized by a "natural variability" in snowfall totals.
A greater concern, many experts note, lies not in how much snow the state is getting, but when it's getting it. The Climate Central study also documented significant decreases in snowfall during the fall and spring — parts of the year some climatologists refer to as the "shoulder seasons." The six Indiana cities profiled in the study — Evansville, Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, South Bend, Lafayette and Terre Haute — have seen, on average, about 2 inches less snow in the fall months and roughly 3.3 fewer inches in the spring.
"In the spring and especially in the fall, we are seeing more events that don't have access to as much cold air aloft," said Micah Mitchell, a North Anderson resident who has studied forecasting and weather patterns for nearly 50 years. "The result is more cold rain events, rather than snow events."
The forms of precipitation, rather than the amount, carry more far-reaching implications for the environment, as well as several sectors of the economy dependent on it.
For farmers, soil with just the right amount of moisture is vital for taking advantage of ideal planting season windows. That moisture, however, can come from slow trickling snow melt or from wind-driven rains, which experts note can degrade soil composition and hasten erosion.
"When the soil is saturated and you get a hard driving rain, you're going to get a lot more erosion than if you get 6 inches or a foot of snow that will melt off more gradually and not create a lot of erosion," said Cory Bohlander, president of the Madison County Farm Bureau who farms about 750 acres in and around Elwood.
Bohlander noted that for his main inventory of corn and soybeans, moisture levels need to be fairly low. With less snow melt and more springtime rains, soil can remain too wet for too long, which can adversely affect those crops.
Another consideration, Hall said, is infrastructure. As temperatures fluctuate above and below freezing during increasingly milder winters, stress on the materials used in the state's roads and bridges becomes more pronounced — which means more money is, and will continue to be, needed to repair them.
"I have a feeling that now, with different climates and us hovering much closer to the 32-degree point as opposed to well below it or well above it, it's causing more problems with our infrastructure," Hall said. "We're going to have to rethink the materials that are going to be replacing some of our infrastructure that way."
Follow Andy Knight on Twitter
@Andrew_J_Knight,
or call 765-640-4809.
