What are the Indianapolis Colts' odds of making the playoffs?

With the Houston tie, we have a problem.

Figuring out an NFL team's playoff odds is usually fairly simple thanks to pro-football-reference.com. Put the record in the Team Record Finder tool and it spits out the percentage of teams that made the playoffs. Yes, the NFL going to 17 games and 14 playoff teams changes the equation, but it provides a solid number on a team's chances.

But the Colts tied Houston and there just aren't enough ties to provide useful information. But thanks to math ‒ stay in school, kids ‒ we can still provide a decent estimate of the Colts' chances. Here's what you need to know:

More:Doyel: You know Colts beat Jaguars but did you see Chuck Pagano and a missed conversion?

The Colts would be in the playoffs if the season ended today

Here are the current playoff standings:

1. Buffalo (5-1)

2. Kansas City (4-2)

3. Tennessee (3-2)

4. Baltimore (3-3) ‒ AFC North champion

5. L.A. Chargers (4-2)

6. N.Y. Jets (4-2)

7. Indianapolis (3-2-1)

Cincinnati (3-3), Miami (3-3) and New England (3-3) are next in line.

If the playoffs started today, the Colts would be in Kansas City for the first round. They move into first place in the AFC South with a victory over Tennessee on Sunday and take over the third seed.

What are the Colts odds of making the playoffs?

Though the tie makes it harder to get the odds, we can look at how often teams make the playoffs by winning percentage and extrapolate a formula (with the help of Excel; math is like magic, kids) to provide a decent estimate. It should be noted, this is working under the assumption the Colts will maintain their current winning percentage; it doesn't factor in strength of schedule.

A team with the Colts' .583 winning percentage makes the playoffs 62.9% of the time.

Here are some more complicated projections:

New York Times: 59%

Betting odds: Range from 50% to 54.5% to make the playoffs

FootballOutsiders.com: 31.0%

Stop worrying about tiebreakers

While the tie complicates calculating the Colts' playoff odds, it makes figuring out seeding much easier because tiebreakers don't matter (until another playoff contender has a tie).

The Colts' 1-2-1 record in the AFC South is a problem because it, obviously, is reflected in their overall record. But division record is unlikely to play a factor in who wins the AFC South because overall record is the No. 1 tiebreaker.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Colts: What are the Colts' chances of making the NFL playoffs?