Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett wins third term, beating GOP challenger Jefferson Shreve

Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett will remain in office for another four years after taking a decisive lead over Republican challenger, businessman Jefferson Shreve, in vote counting Tuesday night.

The Democrat is now the first mayor in the past four decades to be reelected to a third term.

As of Wednesday morning., with 99 percent of vote centers reporting, Hogsett had 60 percent of the vote and Shreve had 40 percent, what some experts called a landslide.

The results confirm that Indianapolis has become a solid Democratic stronghold, University of Indianapolis political expert Gregory Shufeldt said, given that even such a well-funded candidate as Shreve could not make a dent in Democratic control.

Hogsett delivered a boisterous election night speech to an exuberant crowd of about 300 people attending his election night watch party at Kountry Kitchen restaurant in the Kennedy King neighborhood.

"In good times and in tough times, it has been the residents of our beautiful city who have kept us focused and energized, and that does not stop today," Hogsett said. "We will need you over the next four years because change can't come from the mayor's office alone.”

In a roughly 10-minute speech, Hogsett listed his accomplishments during the last eight years and laid out his priorities for his final four as mayor of Indianapolis. He counted the city's $1.2 billion infrastructure plan, a reduction in the murder rate and investments in public safety and the passage of seven bipartisan balanced budgets among his many accomplishments.

“We led the nation in the emergence from the pandemic, hosting all of March Madness, bringing hundreds of thousands of fans back to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway and hosting the collegiate National Football Championship,” he said. “We also have the NBA All-Star game, and don’t forget Taylor Swift!”

“Bring Beyonce!” a supporter shouted.

Over the next four years, Hogsett said, there’s work still to be done.

“There are guns to get off of our streets," Hogsett said. "There is affordable housing to build. There are students to support. There are small businesses to empower and $1.2 billion in infrastructure to upgrade major thoroughfares as well as neighborhood and residential streets and roads."

Hogsett also thanked Shreve for waging a hard-fought campaign.

Shreve conceded the race to Hogsett just before 9 p.m, taking the stage at his election night watch party at the Heirloom event hall of N.K. Hurst by Lucas Oil Stadium.

“This wasn’t a head decision. This was a heart decision,” Shreve said in his concession speech on why he chose to run in the first place.

“It’s been an expensive education,” he joked.

Shreve donated $13.5 million of his own money to his campaign, more than double the donations Hogsett received.

The past ten months have seen the most expensive Indianapolis mayoral race ever. Almost $16 million has been shelled out between the two candidates' campaigns this year as of Oct. 13, driving an advertising blitz that experts said has little precedent.

Experts said Shreve had been Hogsett's strongest opponent, at least financially, in the Democrat's three mayoral bids and also been the most visible, as his $14.5 million self-funded campaign allowed him to flood Indianapolis airwaves with dozens and dozens of ads.

Shreve previously served on the Indianapolis City-County Council.

No Republican has won countywide since 2011, when Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard won his bid for a second term.

Shreve ended his speech by stating: "I want people have a good time. The bar remains open. Drinks cocktails, whatever, we can afford this," Shreve said to laughter from his audience.

Indianapolis mayoral election 2023: Everything you need to know about the Joe Hogsett and Jefferson Shreve mayoral race

A setback for Republicans

The results show just how hard it is for Republicans to find a winning strategy in Marion County, after back-to-back years of losses in hotly contested races. Last year, Cyndi Carrasco lost to Marion County Prosecutor Ryan Mears’ reelection bid despite campaigning aggressively on crime.

“It’s been hard for Republicans to find their niche,” University of Indianapolis political expert Laura Wilson said.

This election became a referendum on Hogsett's performance on crime and public safety, Wilson said, and the results show Indianapolis voters ultimately were confident in sticking with him.

Hogsett’s incumbency advantage also cannot be understated, experts said.

“Incumbency is an advantage because people are sometimes afraid of change,” said Andy Downs, an Indiana politics expert. “The devil you know is better than the devil you don’t know.”

Furthermore, blue-leaning Indianapolis' partisan demographics advantaged Hogsett from the get-go, a fact his campaign and the Indiana Democrats took full advantage of as they mounted attack after attack on Shreve.

Indianapolis mayor election 2023: High homicides, police shootings worry voters as Hogsett and Shreve bid for mayor

Hunter Coey, 25, an Indy resident of three years, voted for Hogsett on the near east side Tuesday, saying he wanted to ensure Marion County remained in Democratic control.

At the end of the day, few issues or policies could shift the fundamental partisan leanings of the city, Shufeldt said.

Hogsett’s victory at the polls, he said, is not necessarily a ringing endorsement of the success of the last eight years, but rather a reflection of Indianapolis being an increasingly Democratic-leaning city.

“I’m of the position that the fundamentals of the race were such that a Democrat, regardless of the name, was poised to likely win,” Shufeldt said.

Nationalization of elections plays out in Indianapolis mayor race

Hogsett and the Democrats had pressured Shreve on abortion issues, his National Rifle Association membership, his stance on Trump, the 2020 presidential election, and the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, and a host of other politically divisive national issues that disadvantage the Republican candidate, experts said.

“You see the tremendous nationalization of issues that the Indy mayor isn’t responsible for but people are upset about and will vote against the Republican party,” Wilson said, citing abortion as an example.

Nationalization of elections: Abortion, national issues prominent in Indianapolis mayor race

Shreve's campaign had aggressively fought to shift the attention from national politics to hyperlocal issues, pledging to donate his salary as mayor to the city's overcrowded animal shelter and calling a press conference to talk about leaf collection methods six days before the election.

Even though Shreve explicitly disavowed Trump, Wilson said, the effect of nationalized partisan divides is so strong that people may have voted against him because they dislike what’s going on nationally in Republican politics.

Matt Hofmann, 49, of Meridian Kessler, told IndyStar he voted for Hogsett because of social issues.

“Women’s rights, LGBT rights, those are important to me,” Hofmann, an IT professional, said. “I wish we were at the point where I didn’t have to vote just to preserve those basic rights, but I fear the Republicans have no interest in doing so.”

Gun violence, crime at forefront of voters’ minds

Shreve had sought to win over voters over the high crime and gun violence Indianapolis has seen in the last eight years, blaming it on Hogsett’s leadership. Some voters were moved by the message, while others wanted to give Hogsett a chance to finish what he’d started.

“It just seems like we’ve got a real big problem with safety, and nothing seems to be working,” said Anna Fender, 71, who voted in Perry Township. “I think our leadership needs to be held accountable.”

But others said they believed Hogsett was the best leader for the job.

“I don’t know about this other guy and what he’s talking about,” James Barton, 70, said of Shreve’s press conference last week during which he demonstrated leaf raking and mulching techniques, a pitch for a more environmentally friendly city leaf collection system.

Jamika Hines, 45, who lives not far from Bethel Park, said the root causes of crime, including the lack of role models for at-risk kids, are what concern her the most. Hines said she voted for Hogsett because she believes he has done a better job at reaching out to the Black community.

Shreve’s gamble on pushing for gun control at the risk of alienating pro-Second Amendment conservatives in his base also may have hurt him, experts said.

Lori Williams, 59, who lives in the Nora area, said she didn’t like either candidate’s crime plans. To get her vote, candidates must prioritize constitutional freedoms, including the Second Amendment right to bear arms, she said.

Central Indiana election results 2023: Live vote tallies here as results are announced

“Honestly I didn’t vote for either because I think they’re both bad,” Williams said.

After an October poll by Indy Politics, Crossroads Public Affairs and ARW Strategies showed Hogsett in the lead but voters split on crime, voters seemed to see the race as a choice between "the lesser of two evils," Wilson said.

"Neither candidate is especially popular or well liked," she said, noting Hogsett had a 46% approval rating yet was leading Shreve by 10 points in the poll a month before Election Day.

Contact IndyStar reporter Ko Lyn Cheang at kcheang@indystar.com or 317-903-7071. Follow her on Twitter: @kolyn_cheang.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett wins third term over Jefferson Shreve