Indiana's 1st District rated 'toss-up' in bad sign for Democrat Mrvan

Sabato's Crystal Ball changed Indiana's 1st Congressional District from "leans Democratic" to a "toss up" Thursday, becoming the second political analysis website to do so in the last couple of weeks. It's the latest sign that U.S. Rep. Frank Mrvan, a Democrat could face a tough reelection campaign in a district that's been a Democratic stronghold for nearly a century.

Last week, Cook Political Report also changed its rating of the northwest Indiana district from "lean Democratic" to a "toss-up."

Mrvan is being challenged by Republican Jennifer-Ruth Green, an Air Force veteran and first-time candidate. She surpassed him in fundraising in the second quarter.

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Mrvan, who was first elected in 2020 after long-time Rep. Pete Visclosky retired, raised just under $357,000 last quarter, while Green raised $626,000. Mrvan has more cash on hand with almost $631,000 compared to Green's $454,000.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, referenced the difference in fundraising when explaining why the news website switched the district to a toss-up.

"This working-class, post-industrial northwest Indiana district has seen its Democratic lean erode in the Donald Trump era, even though Biden still carried it by 8 points," Kondik wrote on the website. "But Democrats have been losing ground in these kinds of districts in recent years, so we’re calling it a Toss-up now."

Of course, a lot can change in the three and a half months until the November general election. State lawmakers, for example, are considering a near-total abortion ban and it's unclear how legislation like that could impact races up and down the ballot come November.

Kevin Hansberger, Green's communications director, attributed the ratings change to Green's strength as a candidate.

"Indiana’s First Congressional District is a tossup because Jennifer-Ruth Green is a strong candidate with a record of service to our nation and Indiana, and fresh ideas to solve problems and find common ground where career politicians like Frank Mrvan have failed," Hansberger said in a statement.

Mrvan's campaign did not immediately respond to request for comment.

Call IndyStar reporter Kaitlin Lange at 317-432-9270 or email her at kaitlin.lange@indystar.com. Follow her on Twitter: @kaitlin_lange.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Indiana's 1st District rated a 'toss-up' in bad sign for Rep. Mrvan