The Indians' pitching is almost as good as advertised. Their lineup is unimaginably bad

There are so many reasons the Yankees could be on their way home by Wednesday night.

The Bombers are on the road in Cleveland, dealing with 35,000 cardboard printouts staring them down, completely unfazed by their star-power. They’re in a playoff round built on winning two of three coin flips. Maybe some Cleveland diehards pose as bellhops wherever the Yankees stay, then plant midge larvae on Gary Sanchez’s catching gear? Anything to coax an extra passed ball or two.

Look, it’s 2020: Anything can happen.

But for the more grounded Yankee fan, the bigger fear is getting shut down by an elite Cleveland pitching staff led by Shane Bieber, and an efficient, rangy defense that makes big plays while refusing to beat itself.

For those who place unwavering faith in the adage that good pitching beats good hitting, the thought of facing the excellent Bieber-Carlos Carrasco-Zach Plesac trio in a short series is daunting. And it is. But it shouldn’t make Cleveland the favorites, or lead anyone to see it as the worst possible matchup for the Bombers outside of Tampa.

Cleveland’s offense is bad.

Let’s start with an illustration, and, to be entirely honest, a backhanded compliment. Jose Ramirez should be the American League MVP based on his yearlong excellence and late-season heroics.

This says as much about Ramirez’s excellence as his teammates' offensive ineptitude.

Ramirez, behind his career-best .993 OPS and top-tier third base defense, led all AL position players in Wins Above Replacement.

But what separates him from a crowded field — one that includes his teammate, Bieber — is the last word of that stat. Cleveland’s entire lineup, cumulatively, is miserable on offense. The Indians hit .228/.317/.372, which is about as bad as it looks. (Fangraphs rates their offense 14% worse than the league when factoring in their ballpark and the league, which as a whole hit .245/.322/.418.)

That makes Ramirez overwhelmingly better than anything they could substitute him with, and vital to his team’s run production in a way very few other hitters are.

With Carlos Santana falling off a cliff from 2019, the Indians might have three respectable bats (Francisco Lindor, Franmil Reyes and Cesar Hernandez) besides Ramirez.

Here’s another illustration, and again, backhanded compliment.

Were you at any point frustrated by Mike Tauchman’s (.242/.342/.305 in 2020) struggles, cussing under your breath while his 2019 pop evaporated and he was overmatched by 92 mph four-seamers in the zone? Well, Tauchman, who will be fortunate to get a plate appearance in this postseason, had a better OBP than every single outfielder on Cleveland save for Bradley Zimmer, who got on base 36% of the time, but negated it with a punchless .162 average.

The Yankees have forgotten more about hitting than this Cleveland team can remember. But don’t listen to me, listen to Mike Freeman, aka, the should-be MVP’s non-theoretical replacement level:

Cleveland’s pitching is great (but less great than you think.)

Yes, Cleveland allowed the fewest runs in the league, and 61 fewer than New York, leading to an ERA nearly a run lower than the Yankees, 3.29 to 4.35. We’ve been over Bieber, who leads MLB in every meaningful pitching category, from ERA (1.63), strikeouts (122) and wins (8). Carrasco and Plesac posted sub-3 ERAs too, while Gerrit Cole (2.84) was the only Yankees starter to do so.

Even still, the Yankees present — with exception to the dangerous, lefty-mashing White Sox lineup, by far Cleveland’s greatest test this year. Though the Yankees don’t have an MVP favorite, they’re stacked with killers up and down the lineup. DJ LeMahieu and Luke Voit won the batting title and home run crown, respectively. From breakout stars like Clint Frazier, success stories like Gio Urshela, and two of the most feared power bats in the league in Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees are to offense what Cleveland is to pitching.

But, because of the coronavirus-related travel restrictions, teams only played opponents in their region, which means none of the typical division cross-mingling we’re used to in the modern game. This makes who a player faces a real factor when understanding surface stats, and one that narrows the gap. Eight of the bottom 15 teams in OPS, including Cleveland, played in the Central.

Opponent strength is true on either side of the ball, of course, and there’s some chicken and egg at play. Great pitchers can drive down hitters' stats just as poor hitters can juice pitchers' stats.

But lucky for us, there is a stat that endeavors to account for pitchers that get to feast on the Pirates instead of the Blue Jays. Baseball Prospectus' Deserved Runs Average (DRA) accounts for not only ballpark and defense, but opponent quality to churn out a number on an ERA scale. DRA- uses 100 as a league-average baseline, so the lower the better. (Full disclosure: I co-host a Baseball Prospectus podcast.)

Assuming J.A. Happ’s tremendous late-season run slots him into Game 3, check out both teams' expected rotations. (Ironically, Deivi Garcia and Jordan Montgomery edge out Happ in DRA.)

Your eyes didn’t deceive you; Bieber still had the best DRA in the league among starters. And Cleveland’s projected rotation to no one’s surprise, ranks better than the Yankees'. Just not as overwhelmingly as individual Topps cards might insinuate.

Cole had the third-best DRA among starters in 2019; given more time in 2020, the $324 million man wouldn’t be a mismatch against Bieber. Plesac outdoes Happ, but Tanaka and Carrasco are a virtual wash.

Meanwhile, lest you were worried that the Yankees ranked better because they feasted on awful AL and NL East pitching, BPro’s Deserved Runs Created Plus (DRC+) does for offense, what DRA does for pitching. According to DRC+, the Yankees have eight hitters at 110 or more, meaning, they’re at least 10% better than league average even if they got a little fat off the reprehensible Red Sox rotation or risible Phillies bullpen. But Cleveland, per DRC+, has just two Lindor (121 DRC+) and Ramirez (147) above that 10% threshold, with Santana a shade worse.

Again, Cleveland’s pitching is better than the Yankees' and I am without question cherry-picking numbers. But over a three-game stretch, the talent gap is not so egregious as to rule the Yankees out.

Do the Yankees want to battle Shane Bieber in Game 1? Besides the innate pride any athlete carries from playing and beating the best — probably not. However, try flipping that question around: Would Bieber want to face a lineup that might bat Clint Frazier (.905 OPS, 117 DRC+) seventh? This wild card match is a tough one, as it should be, because it’s the playoffs. But game recognize game, and Cleveland has way more to fear at the plate than the Yankees do on the mound.

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