India's Covid excess death toll nearly 10 times higher than official estimates

There could have been as many as 4.9 million excess deaths in India since the start of the pandemic, 10 times the official toll, research has shown.

Although not all the excess deaths in the US-based Center for Global Development (CGD) study are believed to be from coronavirus, its findings appear to confirm what has long been feared in India - the country’s official pandemic death toll has been grossly underestimated.

The CGD combined data from three different data sources: a civil registration system that records births and deaths across seven of India’s 29 states, blood tests that compared the prevalence of the virus in India to global Covid-19 fatality rates and an economic survey of almost 900,000 people, which is completed three times a year.

The study concluded there were between 3.4 million and 4.9 million excess deaths in India between January 2020, when the country reported its first Covid-19 cases, to June 2021, compared to the same period in previous years. The country’s official Covid-19 death toll currently stands at 414,000.

“What is tragically clear is that too many people, in the millions rather than the hundreds of thousands, may have died,” the report said.

The research mirrors mortality data released by several Indian states in this year. In the northern state of Bihar almost 90,000 more people died during January and May 2021, compared to the same period in 2019.

More than half of this increase occurred in May, when India’s second wave was at its peak. Bihar’s official Covid-19 death toll for January to May was 7,717.

During India’s second wave, crematoria across the country reported Covid-19 fatalities far in excess of official figures. In the northern city of Lucknow, for example, the number of Covid-19 cremations at individual crematoriums regularly exceeded the official city-wide death tolls during April.

India has one of the world’s most underfunded and understaffed public healthcare systems and thousands of Indians died in their homes or waiting outside hospitals, without being tested for Covid-19.

Many Indian states only recorded Covid-19 deaths when the victim had no other diseases, to reduce panic and point score against other states.

There is also believed to have been a spike in fatalities as resources were diverted to the fight against Covid-19 and away from illnesses such as heart disease or malaria.

Meanwhile, India's second wave continues to show signs it has subsided. On Tuesday, the country reported 30,093 new daily cases - its lowest tally in four months.

There also appeared to be good news from the Indian government’s latest nationwide serosurvey, which found that two-thirds of the 29,000 people swabbed had developed Covid-19 antibodies. India could experience a third wave in the Autumn, according to public health experts.

While official figures suggest just over 30 million Indians have been infected with the virus, it is widely accepted that this is a fraction of the true number.

Extrapolated to the population as a whole this prevalence rate would suggest over 900 million Indians have already been exposed to the virus.

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