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Inexperienced Gophers football team faces daunting schedule, lower expectations

andy greder, pioneer press
·3 min read
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When the calendar flips to June, the Gophers football team will hit the final stretch of summer workouts before the 2023 season opener against Nebraska on Aug. 31.

Players will have plenty of external motivation to help them push through the heat and humidity because Minnesota’s revamped roster will be met with headwinds of doubt this fall.

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has been driving down expectations. It projects only 6.5 wins for Minnesota; that means barely bowl eligible for head coach P.J. Fleck and Co. after the U produced nine or more wins in three of the past four seasons.

Schedule strength is a primary reason for the diminished forecast. In September, the Gophers travel to North Carolina, a possible Top 25 team led by star quarterback Drake Maye, a projected early pick in the 2024 NFL draft. The U’s nonconference schedule is rounded out by Eastern Michigan and Louisiana.

Minnesota must face Michigan and Ohio State after avoiding both Big Ten behemoths a year ago. The U’s third East Division crossover game comes against Michigan State.

The Gophers still have six games versus Big Ten West teams, but they have the third-best odds to win the division. Wisconsin, with new coach Luke Fickell, has been given 48 percent odds to win it, followed by Iowa at 20, and Minnesota and Illinois at 12 percent apiece.

Another driving factor in ESPN’s outlook for the Gophers relates to their in-house analytic SP+, which pegs Minnesota at 31st in nation. The U’s defense under successful coordinator Joe Rossi is ranked 9th, while then offense, now led by new co-coordinators Matt Simon and Greg Harbaugh, is ranked 63rd.

On returning production, Minnesota ranks 108th out of 133 programs in the country, with 55 percent of its offense and 52 percent of its defense back.

Given the amount of inexperience, Fleck thought the team was more coach-led when they stared in January and he’s been emphasizing a transition into being player-led.

“Really proud of the guys in the spring,” Fleck said after the spring game April 22. “This has been by far the hardest spring we’ve had from work load to consistency with pads and what we’ve done. … The data backs it up. Hard doesn’t mean bad. It just means we had a lot of work to do. We have to grow up as a football team very quickly.”

On offense, the Gophers will need redshirt sophomore quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis to learn from his debut playing experience last season and use his strong arm to lead a more-balanced run-pass offense without its All-American pair of center John Michael Schmitz and tailback Mo Ibrahim. Schmitz was taken by the Giants in the second round of the NFL draft, and Ibrahim was an un-drafted free agent signing by the Lions.

On defense, Minnesota will need to finally develop a consistent pass rush to help take the load off a transitioning secondary, which saw cornerback Terell Smith and safety Jordan Howden selected in the fifth round of the NFL draft. Linebacker Mariano Sori-Marin and defensive end Thomas Rush also moved on to the NFL.

Senior safety Tyler Nubin — a projected first-round pick in the 2024 NFL draft — will take on an even bigger role this fall.

“It takes guys coming out of their comfort zone,” Nubin said about what’s needed to be a player-led team. “A lot of the things I’ve been talking about with the guys is realizing that their voice is really powerful and it’s valuable to the team.”

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