Inflation is at a 40-year high. What that means for candidates, voters in Georgia's primary election

Every American has felt the recent inflation surge. From gas to chicken wings, rising prices are a burden on everyone’s wallet. And election candidates know it.

One of incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp's main talking points on the campaign trail is steering the state through the COVID-19 years, taking credit for this year's record-setting $3.7 billion in surplus and touting a state income tax cut. His opponent, David Perdue, is pushing for the total elimination of Georgia's income tax.

Meanwhile, Senate challenger Herschel Walker is echoing broad Republican claims that the Democrats, including his likely general election opponent Sen. Raphael Warnock, are responsible for the spike. Control of the evenly divided Senate is on the line this November, and the Walker-Warnock race is considered one that could swing power to the GOP.

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There's plenty of talk on both sides about the issue, but according to Savannah-based economist Michael Toma, voters should consider more than just the rhetoric when it comes to which candidates will have the greatest effect on lowering consumer prices. Toma listens for what they aren't saying, as inflation is a complex issue, not something that can be boiled down to a 30-second TV advertisement.

“There’s no magic bullet” to stop the recent inflation surge, said Toma, Georgia Southern's Fuller E. Callaway Professor of Economics “It would be nice if there was just one simple answer that we could point to and say, ‘if we solve that one problem, inflation would go away. Unfortunately, the world and the economy do not work like that."

He says inflation comes as a result of a number of things, many of which are out of the hands of any political officeholders.

How can politicians stop inflation?

Elected officials can enact policies and exercise other measures to lessen the effects of the price spike, but much of the current crisis is due to a supply side shortage that is beyond their control.

China's workforce, responsible for producing approximately 20% of U.S. imported goods, has been hit by the country's strict COVID measures. The products they build take longer to ship because of supply chain issues, raising costs here. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has spiked the cost of gas, with countries resistant to using Russian oil.

Toma says it's very difficult to solve supply-side inflation with demand-side policy. He points instead towards listening for supply-side solutions — policies that encourage businesses to reengage in production and make it easier for them to do so. Cutting a payroll tax would be a good example, he said, because such a measure would make it less cumbersome for businesses to hire workers.

“What is the politician saying about how they can encourage businesses to hire, encourage businesses to produce more output for consumers or other businesses? How does that policy or proposal remove a barrier for a firm, a company, a business, both small businesses and large businesses, how does that remove a barrier to their operations? How does it make it easier or more efficient for that firm to produce more output?” he said.

Inflation rates stayed elevated in April but eased off the 40-year high, which some experts say could signal a peak in the surge in consumer prices since last summer.

The consumer price index increased 8.3% from April of last year, down from 8.5% in March, as a drop in gasoline prices offset a continuing run-up in food, rent and other costs, the Labor Department said Wednesday. March’s yearly advance marked the fastest since December 1981.

April’s pullback in the annual reading was the first since last August and halted five straight months of 40-year highs. But that’s just the year-over-year numbers. Overall, consumer prices edged up 0.3% from March.

Will inflation be a platform issue for the midterms?

Inflation has been perhaps the biggest bipartisan complaint of the Biden administration. President Joe Biden’s approval rating and the inflation rate reflect each other: as the inflation rate has climbed, his approval rate has dropped.

For Republicans, it’s a clarion call for voters in November, and example of what happens when the other party is in power. For Democrats, it’s a problem caused by factors outside their control, but it’s still a concern for voters, and thus, a campaign talking point.

Sen. Raphael Warnock made a vow to “lower the cost of consumers” almost immediately after he qualified in March. In a social media post, his likely general election opponent, Herschel Walker said “It is getting expensive to be an American! Look at your grocery, gas, and energy bills — they just keep going up!”

Chatham County resident Carlton Westbrook, who plans to take a Republican ballot for the primary, says inflation is “something everyone should be thinking about” when they go to the ballot box. But he says it won’t change any of his votes in the primary.

Westbrook says he’s planning on picking Kemp for governor, pointing out that the incumbent’s handling of the pandemic “earned his vote” by keeping Georgia’s economy afloat.

“Kemp earned my vote when he opened the state back up. Everybody was saying it was too early, but the reason Georgia doesn’t have it as bad as a lot of other states right now is because of that decision by Kemp.”

Westbrook says he hopes the inflation rate will have come down by November but he isn’t hopeful that Biden and the Democratic-controlled House and Senate will be able to do so before then.

“I think what you’re gonna see is a lot of Democrats start thinking about voting for fiscal conservatives. Maybe not in the governor’s race because of how popular Stacey Abrams is, but everybody is feeling this price increase, doesn’t matter what party you vote for.”

Chatham Democrat Molly Knutson says she makes the effort to be a thoughtful voter, researching the candidates on the ballot and the promises they’re making.

“Every time I go to the polls, it does not matter if it's a local or a federal election, I do a ton of research on all of the candidates, with really two questions in mind: How is this person going to impact my immediate community that I want to live in? And is this person going to have a positive or negative impact on future Molly?” she said.

Knutson likes to check if a candidate has ever run a business, or if he or she has any kind of financial or economic education. While Knutson says a candidate’s economic plan plays a role in her decision, social issues typically take up the lion’s share of her candidate consideration process.

Knutson said candidates that lean heavily into campaign promises to lessen the effects of inflation are gunning for “raw, emotional votes,” noting that “one person simply can’t do it alone.”

“I have never gone to the polls to vote for somebody simply because they were strong in just one thing I believed in. I think that's reckless,” Knutson said. “You gotta look at the whole candidate. And you gotta look at everything that you that matters to you. Do the pro and con math, and vote accordingly.”

Will Peebles is the enterprise reporter for Savannah Morning News. He can be reached at wpeebles@gannett.com and @willpeeblessmn on Twitter.

This article originally appeared on Savannah Morning News: GA Election 2022: Candidates campaigning on inflation, economy