As inflation hits 8.5% nationally, it's even higher in Arizona. Here's what to know

Cars, food, gasoline, housing. No matter what you spend money on, there aren't a lot of places to hide these days. Almost every consumer item has risen in price, underscored by a national annualized inflation rate that just hit 8.5% in March, the highest rate in 41 years.

The rate is even higher in metro Phoenix, at 10.9%, with spikes in housing costs responsible for a significant portion of that.

Americans are griping more, and many are having a much harder time making ends meet. The inflation spiral also has widened political divides, with many Republicans blaming President Joe Biden for the uptick while others point to a much more complex set of catalysts — some political, others not.

The discussion also is turning much more carefully around what inflation is, what causes it and how it might be controlled.

Here are answers to some common questions:

Q: Inflation is rising, but what does that mean?

A: "Inflation is a general, sustained upward movement of prices for goods and services in an economy," according to a definition from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. "A 2% annual inflation rate means that — on average — a dollar buys 2% fewer goods and services than it did the year before."

Moderate inflation is normal, desirable and certainly better than the reverse — deflation. The latter is a condition where prices are dropping and people stop buying many goods and services, partly because they think they will become cheaper down the road. Deflationary periods are associated with reduced economic activity and recessions.

Q: Why is inflation in the news now?

A: Because the rate of price increases has accelerated, stoking anxiety that this condition could get out of hand. The latest 12-monthly inflation reading through March was 8.5%. For all of 2021, it was 7%. In 2020, a recession year, inflation ran just 1.4%.

Sharp inflationary increases raise anxiety over possible problems including shortages, hoarding, higher interest rates and, possibly, a recession. The Federal Reserve often starts increasing interest rates to cool inflation, and that's happening now. Rising interest rates sometimes are a precursor to recessions.

Q: How is inflation tracked?

A: The Consumer Price Index, also known as the CPI or CPI-U for all urban consumers, is the most widely followed inflation measure in the U.S. Working under the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, data collectors track monthly prices for thousands of items — about 80,000 overall. Certain categories such as food, gasoline and housing are given a greater weighting or importance compared to others, reflecting the spending patterns of most Americans. of

The national CPI-U report released April 12 that measured an 8.5% rise over the past 12 months also showed a 1.2% gain just from February to March of this year, indicating a recent acceleration. Higher prices for gasoline, shelter and food led the way, the BLS said.

There are different inflation measures. For example, Social Security cost-of-living increases are based on a slightly different gauge called the CPI-W, for urban wage earners and clerical workers.

Inflation's impact in Phoenix: As inflation climbs, construction projects in metro Phoenix feel the sting of high prices

Q: How high is inflation in Arizona?

A: Of late, metro Phoenix has had some of the hottest numbers of any large urban area, with a 12-month inflation rate of 10.9% through February. In specific categories, some price increases are eye-popping, including gains of 43.8% for gasoline, 38.5% for used cars and trucks, 17.2% for natural gas, 16.2% for meats/poultry/fish/eggs and 12.4% for housing (including rents). All of those numbers reflect Phoenix-area changes from March 2021 through February 2022, as tracked by the BLS.

Sharp housing price hikes around metro Phoenix are responsible for much of that 10.9% overall inflation increase, Hoffman said, while also citing high gasoline prices here that reflect a reliance on high-cost California refineries and the need to include pollution-fighting additives.

More: Here's how Arizona's congressional delegation would lower gas prices

In addition, metro Phoenix residents are more dependent on both gasoline and vehicles than people in many other big cities because of our longer commutes and comparative lack of public transportation, Hoffman added.

Q: Have many items dropped in price?

A: Not lately, among the major categories, though some prices are rising more slowly. Around the Phoenix area, restaurant meals rose a comparatively modest 5.9% over the 12 months through February 2022, cereals/baked goods increased 5.5%, alcoholic beverages rose 1.4% and education/communication services were up 1.2%.

Longer term, computerization is seen as a disinflationary or deflationary catalyst because people and businesses can get so much more done through automation than previously, often for less money. So, too, for the graying demographic trend, since older adults typically don't consume as much as younger households, easing pressure on new homes, cars, furniture, clothing and so on.

Q: How do incomes factor in?

A: In many ways, inflation is relative. Analysts compare current figures to past readings, and they contrast inflation numbers in different locations. Also, inflation often is evaluated in connection with incomes, which also have risen over time.

"Most high school students in 1964 didn’t drive a 1964 Mustang because, even though the $2,320 (car) price sounds low, students earned only $1.25 an hour (on average)," continued the St. Louis Fed explainer.

If people are making more money, higher prices shouldn't cause much stress. Personal incomes have risen, including in Arizona, but they haven't gained ground for everyone or at the same pace as inflation. When the Social Security Administration last fall announced a 5.9% COLA on benefits for 2022, it was ballyhooed as the largest increase in four decades. But it doesn't look so great now against an 8.5% inflation rate.

Who is spending your money?: Use these tools to track taxpayer cash in Arizona

Q: Can individuals blunt the impact?

A: Yes, at least some of it. But many inflation-fighting tactics require planning, effort, patience and sacrifice.

For example, when driving, consider slowing down, accelerating more gradually, combining trips and using price-comparison apps. When shopping, clip coupons and substitute lower-cost items for more expensive ones. Also, you can wear your shoes a little longer, go a few extra days between haircuts, wash your clothes when electricity rates are off-peak, join shopper-rewards programs and so on.

Also when shopping, be wary not just of prices but of quantities too, as food manufacturers and other suppliers often reduce package sizes at times like this, to avoid overt price increases — a tactic known as "shrinkflation."

Examples cited by Edgar Dworsky, editor of Consumer World and recounted by the Consumer Federation of America, include M&M packages that shrunk to 9.75 ounces from 11.3 ounces previously and Cottonelle mega toilet rolls slipping to 312 sheets from 340.

“Since manufacturers are increasingly choosing to make their products smaller as a sneaky way to pass on a back-door price increase, shoppers have to become net-weight conscious and not just price conscious," Dworsky said.

Q: Who, or what, is to blame for this?

A: White House occupants take some heat when economic policies sour, and that certainly has been the case in recent months as inflation has accelerated.

James Carter, director of the conservative Center for American Prosperity, called the inflation surge "a problem of the (Biden) administration’s own making through reckless fiscal, energy and foreign-policy decisions."

Merrill Matthews, a scholar at the limited-government Institute for Policy Innovation, blamed Biden for canceling the Keystone XL pipeline, imposing more restrictions on building new pipelines and creating additional roadblocks for oil drilling, both offshore and on public lands.

But others view the inflationary spiral as more complicated and less political. They cite catalysts including the COVID-19 pandemic and lavish federal payments to individuals and businesses to blunt the economic fallout — policies that started under President Trump and continued under Biden. That's in addition to supply-chain disruptions including factory closures in China and the lingering semiconductor shortage.

More recently, with the Great Resignation, millions of people have exited the workforce, leaving 11 million jobs unfilled and pushing up wages for those who remain. Then there's the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has upset the oil market and likely will lead to higher food prices given Ukraine's position as a major wheat exporter.

"With all the stimulus out there, there has just been too much money chasing too few goods," said Dennis Hoffman, an Arizona State University economist. "This has been a pandemic-induced experience."

Reach the reporter at russ.wiles@arizonarepublic.com.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Inflation in Arizona is higher than U.S. average. Here's what to know

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