Will new influx of homes be enough?

Dec. 29—Metro Albuquerque may see more new home development in 2022 than in any year since the Great Recession. But experts say it likely won't be enough to ease the city's record-low housing supply.

A handful of new subdivisions are either underway or slated to begin soon in Rio Rancho, Los Lunas, Mesa del Sol and other hot spots in and around Albuquerque. Mackenzie Bishop, past president of the Home Builders Association of Central New Mexico, said he expects to see about 2,800 new home starts around the metro area, which would represent an approximately 12% increase over 2021, already the highest in a single year since before the Great Recession.

"There's definitely been a lot of capital invested in new projects," Bishop said.

However, Bishop said that total would still fall well below annual figures from before the recession, noting that labor shortages and fluctuating commodity prices have kept the market from building enough homes — which he estimated as being between 3,500 and 4,000 annually in metro Albuquerque — to reach a balanced market.

"And we haven't done that for going on 13 to 14 years," Bishop said. "There's a huge balance to make up."

Still, the city's very low inventory of existing houses on the market and rising home prices have prompted several developers to take notice.

Wade Messenger, vice president of operations with Pulte Homes New Mexico, told the Journal that it is planning to begin developing around 900 lots in and around Albuquerque and Santa Fe in the next three to six months, with additional development planned after that. Messenger said the shortage of homes and limited new home construction in recent years convinced the team that it's the right time to move forward on several projects.

"We feel very confident that this is an underserved and under-built market," he said.

Plans call for about 80 lots at Mesa del Sol, 85 lots in Los Lunas, 300 new homes near Santa Fe's southern end and around 450 homes in various subdivisions in Rio Rancho, Messenger said. He added that prices will fluctuate based on the price of lumber and other commodities, but said the Los Lunas homes and the Rainbow Canyon development in Rio Rancho will be aimed at first-time homebuyers, while the Santa Fe homes and other Rio Rancho developments will be more expensive.

Separately, homebuilder D.R. Horton recently acquired about 150 finished lots at 118th Street and Amole Mesa Avenue SW, on Albuquerque's West Side, for the second phase of its Aspire project. Jeffrey Harrison, land development manager for D.R. Horton, said he expects the phase to be built out by the end of 2022. The houses start at $279,990, according to the company.

After a couple of years of preparation, Mesa del Sol expects 2022 to be a big year for new development. Ron Brown, coordinator of residential development at Mesa del Sol, said he expects to have around 600 lots across four different subdivisions ready for development completed in the next six months. The first project, an upcoming phase of Mesa del Sol's Montage project, is slated to break ground at the start of 2022.