Injuries to Herro, Giannis leave more questions than answers after Heat’s Game 1 win over Bucks

The Miami Heat stole home-court advantage with an eye-opening Game 1 win over the heavily favored Milwaukee Bucks, but injuries to two of the playoff series’ most important players stole the headlines.

After the Eastern Conference’s eighth-seeded Heat upset the top-seeded Bucks 130-117 on Sunday at Fiserv Forum to take a 1-0 lead in the first-round playoff series, the attention during this two-day break leading up to Wednesday’s Game 2 in Milwaukee will be on the injury report and the ripple effect it creates.

Playoff Jimmy delivers, series-changing injuries, takeaways from Heat’s Game 1 win over Bucks

That’s because Heat starting guard Tyler Herro broke his right hand in the final minute of the first half of Game 1 and missed the rest of the contest and Bucks MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo was limited to just 11 minutes in Game 1 after suffering a lower back contusion.

“I hope Giannis is OK. I hope he’s back,” said Heat star Jimmy Butler, who dominated the Heat’s Game 1 win over the Bucks with 35 points, five rebounds, 11 assists and three steals. “And I hope Tyler just stays in high spirits.”

Herro is expected to miss the rest of the first-round series and likely beyond that after breaking two fingers on his shooting hand. As for Antetokounmpo, The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported Monday morning that there’s “optimism” surrounding his availability for Game 2.

Herro suffered his injury while diving for a loose ball in the final minute of the second quarter. He immediately attempted to head to the locker room, but remained on the court for the final seconds of the first half until the halftime buzzer sounded.

At halftime, the Heat announced the unfortunate news of Herro’s diagnosis. A broken hand takes weeks to heal, which means his availability for the rest of the playoffs is in serious doubt.

“Not much more than what you guys know,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said when asked after the game whether he had more information on Herro’s hand injury. “So he’s not going to play the next game and we’ll just figure it out. I got the same diagnosis that you all heard.”

Heat sharpshooter Duncan Robinson replaced Herro in the Heat’s starting lineup to open the second half of Game 1. Robinson played six minutes in the final two quarters, making his only three-point attempt of the game.

Whether Robinson again starts in Herro’s place in Game 2, though, is up in the air. While Robinson’s three-point shooting ability would help create additional space for the Heat’s leading duo of Bam Adebayo and Butler to operate, Robinson’s defensive limitations could force Spoelstra to turn elsewhere for Herro’s replacement.

It’s worth noting that the Heat has been outscored by 15.5 points per 100 possessions in the 316 minutes that Max Strus and Robinson played together in the regular season. Strus is already in Miami’s starting lineup.

“Tyler going down, obviously, that firepower that he brings to the table for us is tough for us,” Heat forward Kevin Love said after Game 1. “Many guys stepped up in his absence, but we’re going to need to find that scoring with him out at least for the series.”

Other options on the Heat’s roster to start in Herro’s spot in Game 2 and beyond include Victor Oladipo, Caleb Martin, Kyle Lowry and Love.

▪ Oladipo was a consistent member of the bench rotation until the final month of the regular season, when he received seven DNP-CDs (did not play, coach’s decision) in the Heat’s final 12 regular-season games. Oladipo, who is known for his defensive ability but shot just 33 percent on threes in the regular-season, did not play in Game 1 of the series even after Herro went out with an injury.

▪ Martin was a fixture in the Heat’s starting lineup prior to the All-Star break, but he has not started a game since after the addition of Love during the mid-February break. Instead, Martin has been a consistent member of the Heat’s bench rotation over the last two months. Martin would help add another option to guard some of the Bucks’ top scorers as a versatile defensive weapon.

▪ Like Martin, Lowry opened the season as a full-time starter but has played off the bench since returning from a left knee injury in mid-March. The Heat already has point guard Gabe Vincent in the starting lineup, but Lowry and Vincent have played a lot of minutes together this season. Miami was outscored by 0.2 points per 100 possessions in the 307 minutes they played together in the regular season.

▪ While Love is not a positional replacement for Herro at guard, he would bring additional size to the Heat’s starting lineup as a 6-foot-8, 251-pound forward. Love also would bring three-point shooting to the starting group, which the Heat needs after losing Herro’s outside shooting. The Vincent-Strus-Butler-Love-Adebayo lineup outscored opponents by 7.1 points per 100 possessions in a very limited sample size of 13 minutes together in the regular season.

Herro closed the regular season as the Heat’s third-leading scorer with 20.1 points per game on 43.9 percent shooting from the field and 37.8 percent shooting on threes. Adebayo and Butler were the only Heat players who averaged more points than Herro.

“You can’t fully make up what Tyler has been for our team all year long,” Butler said. “But guys got to step up, including myself, including Bam and whoever Spo calls upon to do an offensive assignment, a defensive assignment, to bring some energy, to dive on the floor, get a loose ball or rebound. It’s like all hands on deck at all times and now more than ever.”

While Herro is expected to miss the rest of the series and possibly the rest of the postseason unless the Heat makes a very deep run, Antetokounmpo’s status for Game 2 and the rest of the first round is still uncertain. Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer said an X-ray and MRI on Antetokounmpo’s injury came back “clean.”

“I would say he’s still sore, but I think progress,” Budenholzer told reporters Monday. “And he’s getting some more treatment and I think we’ll just continue to monitor him for the next day or two. Probably fortunate that there are two days between games, so I think still mostly positive, mostly optimistic. But we’ll see how he feels over the next day or two.”

Even without Herro, the Heat’s chances of eliminating the top-seeded Bucks suddenly increase dramatically if Antetokounmpo can’t play or is slowed because of the injury.

The Bucks outscored opponents by 7.2 points per 100 possessions with Antetokounmpo on the court this regular season. With Antetokounmpo off the court, opponents outscored the Bucks by 1.4 points per 100 possessions.

The Heat and Bucks are expected to release their official injury reports for Game 2 on Tuesday evening.

The Heat took Monday off after its whirlwind weekend that began with Friday’s playoff-clinching with over Chicago Bulls in the play-in tournament in Miami and ended with Sunday’s Game 1 victory over Bucks in Milwaukee. The Heat will gather for practice on Tuesday in preparation for a desperate Bucks team in Game 2, whether Antetokounmpo is available or not.

“We were able to hold them off and secure one win. That’s it,” Spoelstra said. “That’s all we’re thinking about right now. We got to just figure out and rest and get ready for what we can expect is a very competitive Game 2.”