Inside the Missouri Valley: A look at each team's playoff chances with season winding down

Nov. 1—MITCHELL — With three weeks left in the season, there are plenty of teams in the Missouri Valley Football Confernece on the bubble for the Football Championship Subdivision playoffs.

While the usual powerhouse MVFC may not send five teams to the playoffs this season, there are still two national championship contenders that call the conference home.

Here's a look at each team's chances to make the playoffs heading into the final trio of weeks.

South Dakota State (8-0, 6-1 MVFC)

The No. 1 team in the country, South Dakota State's only loss came in the first game of the season to Football Bowl Subdivision opponent Iowa. Even if SDSU loses its final two games, it'll still be a playoff team. But taking on Northern Iowa and Illinois State in the final two contests, just one win in the two games would lock up the MVFC title for the Jackrabbits and assure them the autobid to the playoffs. With two wins in the last two games, SDSU will likely be the No. 1 overall seed, but the Jacks could still be in line for a first-round bye even with a loss in one of their final games.

North Dakota State (6-2, 4-1 MVFC)

Still one of the favorites to make a run in the FCS playoffs, North Dakota State's only FCS loss of the season came to now-No. 1 South Dakota State by two points. With three games left against Western Illinois, Southern Illinois and North Dakota, the Bison are almost assured a first-round bye if they win out.

However, even if the Bison slip up, they're still essentially a lock for the playoffs. And even if they lose two of the last three — which would come as a relatively big surprise — there's a possibility NDSU is the lone team with three FCS losses to make the playoffs.

North Dakota (5-3, 3-2 MVFC)

The team most firmly on the bubble, the Fighting Hawks have two FCS losses this season to then-No. 24 Southern Illinois on the road and No. 1 South Dakota State at home.

However, the season hinges on the final game of the season in the Fargodome against No. 4 North Dakota State. A win against the Bison — assuming UND takes down Indiana State and South Dakota in its next two games — all but assures UND a spot in the playoffs. But a loss to the Bison puts the Fighting Hawks' fate into the hands of the committee.

With the Big Sky Conference and Colonial Athletic Association looking like they could take up to three or more at-large spots each, as well as NDSU taking another, it leaves six at-large bids on the table. That raises the question of whether a three-FCS-loss UND would make it over a one- or two-FCS-loss team, which could is a definite possibility but seems up in the air this season.

Illinois State (5-3, 3-2 MVFC)

With two FCS losses, Illinois State closing out the season 3-0 assures it to make the playoffs. The problem for the Redbirds is a trip to Brookings on Nov. 12 awaits. A win for Illinois State would give it its first signature win of the season, but based on past performances this season, it would take a big upset for the Redbirds to pull it off.

Illinois State is 3-2 in the MVFC but each win has been by six points or less and North Dakota State just beat the Redbirds 24-7. Even to get to SDSU with a shot at the playoffs, they have to take down a good Youngstown State team.

There is a path to the playoffs for Illinois State, but it would take a big effort from the Redbirds.

Youngstown State (5-3, 3-2 MVFC)

Youngstown State doesn't have a high-quality win to its name, but a 3-0 end to the season would give the Penguins a fighter's chance at the postseason with just two FCS losses.

A loss in its upcoming game to Illinois State would likely gash YSU's playoff hopes, but a win keeps it in the picture. With Missouri State and Southern Illinois left, — two teams that have somewhat disappointed this season — it would give the Penguins two winnable games against decent opponents to try to prove to the committee they deserve a spot.

YSU hasn't had a ton of opportunities to prove itself, but the two currently ranked teams the Penguins have played have been two losses in back-to-back weeks to North Dakota State and North Dakota. However, the loss to UND was a five-point loss, albeit at home, with the loss to NDSU coming as a 13-point loss despite going down 14-0 after the first quarter.

Northern Iowa (5-4, 4-2 MVFC)

Northern Iowa's biggest chancee to make the playoffs is to beat South Dakota State this weekend and wow the committee. With three losses and its only high-quality win coming over then-No. 20 and now-unranked Southern Illinois, a win over SDSU gives UNI a good chance.

UNI historically plays SDSU tough, with the games alternating winners for the past 10 years, including a 26-17 UNI win in Brookings last season.

It's plain and simple for the Wildcats — a win over SDSU and they have a good chance; a loss and any postseason hope falls into the hands of the committee. Granted, if they win, they'd then have to beat South Dakota at the DakotaDome in the final game of the regular season or the point becomes moot, given UNI would have four FCS losses.

Southern Illinois (5-4, 4-2 MVFC)

A tough loss to South Dakota on Oct. 22 put a real dent in Southern Illinois' playoff chances. But to follow that up with a one-point loss to Northern Iowa at home essentially shattered the Salukis' hopes.

Four FCS losses is almost a kiss of death this season for most teams, but if SIU can beat North Dakota State convincingly, there's a greater-than-zero percent chance the Salukis get it. And even with a close loss, based on strength of schedule, the Salukis have a shot, too.

Their FBS win over Northwestern will certainly help their case, and two of their four FCS losses came to teams that seem likely to make the playoffs — or at least be in the discussion — in Incarnate Word and Southeast Missouri in the first two games of the season. The five losses could be difficult to overlook, but some high-quality wins over Northwestern and North Dakota help bolster SIU's case.

Missouri State (3-5, 1-4 MVFC)

At the start of the season, Missouri State looked poised to be a national title contender. Things derailed quickly, though, as a five-game losing streak plagued the Bears in the middle of the season.

With no elite teams left on their schedule, it'll be tough for the Bears to make a good enough impression with four FCS losses to punch their ticket. All Missouri State can do if it wants a shot is blowout its remaining opponents — South Dakota, Youngstown State and Indiana State — hang its hat on a win over Tennessee-Martin early in the season and hope the committee looks past a difficult stretch of losses to South Dakota State, North Dakota, Southern Illinois and Northern Iowa, albeit unlikely.

For South Dakota, Indiana State and Western Illinois, the 2022 season hasn't been kind. USD has been tasked with one of the most difficult schedules in the country, taking on three teams ranked in the top-three at the time of the game, as well as then-No. 14 Southern Illinois. With five FCS losses, the Coyotes are trying to figure out the quarterback of the future.

Indiana State and Western Illinois have six and seven FCS losses this season, respectively, with Indiana State having the lone win between the two schools.

Even if any of the three teams win out, they'll still miss the playoffs. However, playing spoiler is still on the table, with Indiana State and USD both playing UND in the next two weeks, and Western Illinois set to take on Illinois State.

Saturday, Oct. 29

South Dakota State 49, Indiana State 7

Youngstown State 45, South Dakota 24

North Dakota State 24, Illinois State 7

North Dakota 34, Abilene Christian 31

Northern Iowa 37, Southern Illinois 36

Missouri State 45, Western Illinois 14

One top performance from the conference for the week:

Northern Iowa's Theo Day hurled a career-high five touchdown passes and 330 yards on a career-best 84.4% completion rate en route to a 37-36 at then-No. 20 Southern Illinois. The Michigan State transfer found four different receivers for scores and hit Desmond Hutson for the eventual game-winning 5-yard touchdown with under six minutes left in the game.

One top play from this past week's games:

Deion McShane went up over a pair of Southern Illinois defenders to haul in a 27-yard score for Northern Iowa.

This week's games

Rankings are from the Stats Perform FCS Top 25.

Saturday, Nov. 5

North Dakota at Indiana State, 12 p.m.

Missouri State at South Dakota, 1 p.m.

North Dakota State at Western Illinois, 1 p.m.

Youngstown State at Illinois State, 2 p.m.

South Dakota State at Northern Iowa, 4 p.m.

One Missouri Valley game we're eager to watch this week:

Two teams that need a win if they want any chance to make the playoffs, it doesn't get much more important than the contest in Normal, Illinois, this weekend.

Youngstown State travels to Illinois State for a 2 p.m. kick. Youngstown State is coming off a big week over South Dakota, while Illinois State suffered its second FCS loss of the season to North Dakota State last week.

Illinois State gives up 137 yards per game on the ground, but Penguins running back Jaleel McLaughlin is second in the country in rushing yards and averages 147.8 per game.

The winner stays alive for the playoffs, while the loser is likely to find itself on the outside looking in.

* Illinois State's James Robinson tallied five rushes for 17 yards in his first game with the New York Jets after being traded from the Jaguars last week.

* Packers wide receiver out of North Dakota State, Christian Watson, left the game against the Bills with a concussion and did not return.

* Former Jackrabbit Dallas Goedert hauled in six catches for 64 yards in the Eagles' 35-13 win over the Steelers.