Inside the Missouri Valley: NDSU looks to well-used recipe in search for next FBS win at Arizona

Sep. 13—FARGO, N.D. — North Dakota State's trip to Arizona on Saturday night marks the first time the Bison will take on a Football Bowl Subdivision opponent since their 2016 win over Iowa.

The national powerhouse in Fargo has won nine of the last 11 Football Championship Subdivision national championships, with its worst finish coming in a quarterfinal loss in 2020 to the eventual champions Sam Houston.

The Bison are the class of the FCS and the title goes through Fargo nearly every year, but NDSU's dominance isn't limited to just FCS schools. In its last six games against FBS opponents, NDSU is 6-0, with wins over Power 5 opponents in Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas State, Minnesota and Kansas, and the last FBS loss for the Bison came in 2009 in the form of a 34-17 defeat at the hands of Iowa State during a season where NDSU went 3-8 overall.

When NDSU has had success against FBS opponents, they've done an excellent job stopping the run. During the six-game win streak, only Iowa State in 2014 and Minnesota in 2011 ran for more than 100 yards and only Minnesota had more rushing yards than the Bison. In 2016, Iowa only ran for 34 yards, Kansas State only had 41 yards on the ground in 2013, Colorado State posted 72 in 2012 and Kansas had 96 in 2010.

However, in the 2009 loss to Iowa State, the Cyclones posted 204 yards on the ground.

The Bison also converted on a relatively high clip of third downs against FBS teams in wins, including a 6-of-9 showing against Minnesota in 2011. In those six games, the Bison converted on third downs at a 49% clip, but that number includes the 2010 win over the Jayhawks where NDSU went 2-of-13. In the loss to Iowa State in 2009, though, NDSU was only 5-of-14 on third downs.

The turnover battles have also swung in the favor of the Bison when they've taken down FBS foes. The only time during the current six-game winning streak that NDSU didn't win the turnover battle was in 2016 when the Bison and Iowa each had one turnover. Other than that, NDSU has been good at forcing turnovers defensively and limiting turnovers offensively.

NDSU has forced 12 turnovers in the six games and only given the ball away four times and has never coughed the ball up more than once in a game, but in the 2009 loss, the Bison surrendered two turnovers.

The key for the Bison will be to keep up the things that have made them successful against FBS teams in the past. This season, Cam Miller hasn't thrown the ball a ton, in part because he hasn't needed to, but NDSU has rushed the ball for 423 yards over the first two games and surrendered 243.

Arizona only has 202 yards on the ground through its first two games and has turned the ball over five times. The Wildcats have been good at stopping teams on third downs, only allowing a 30.4% conversion percentage, while NDSU has converted 11 of its 19 third-down chances.

But in many ways, NDSU is starting over. Matt Entz wasn't the head coach in 2016 when the Bison stunned Iowa, and none of the players on the current team were on the roster at Kinnick Stadium that day. As Bison players, they've played big games but never a road FBS contest.

The FBS recipe for success, though, is there and even with different personnel, NDSU has a great chance to extend its winning streak against FBS schools to seven.

Thursday, Sept. 8

Missouri State 35, UT Martin 30

Saturday, Sept. 11

South Dakota State 24, UC Davis 22

Montana 24, South Dakota 7

North Dakota State 43, NC A&T State 3

North Dakota 29, Northern Iowa 27

Minnesota 62, Western Illinois 10

Purdue 56, Indiana State 0

Youngstown State 49, Dayton 16

Southeast Missouri State 34, Southern Illinois 31

Illinois State 28, Valparaiso 21

One top performance from the conference for the week:

Missouri State's Jason Shelley had just as many incompletions as touchdown passes, throwing five touchdowns and 297 yards on 19-of-24 passing in a 35-30 win over No. 14 UT Martin on Thursday night.

Shelley tied a program single-game record for passing touchdowns in a game, including two in the fourth quarter, with the first coming on fourth-and-1 from the 7-yard line down 28-24.

Rankings are from Stats Perform FCS Top 25. FBS Associated Press Top 25 rankings are denoted by asterisk.

Saturday, Sept. 17

Youngstown State at *No. 9 Kentucky, 11 a.m.

Southern Illinois at Northwestern, 11 a.m.

No. 3 Montana at Indiana State 12 p.m.

Cal Poly at South Dakota, 1 p.m.

No. 22 North Dakota at Northern Arizona, 3 p.m.

Southern Utah at Western Illinois, 3 p.m.

No. 8 Sacramento State at UNI, 4 p.m.

No. 5 Missouri State at *No. 10 Arkansas, 6 p.m.

Butler at No. 2 South Dakota State, 6 p.m.

Eastern Illinois at Illinois State, 6:30 p.m.

No. 1 North Dakota State at Arizona, 10 p.m.

One Missouri Valley game we're eager to watch this week:

Missouri State at Arkansas: There's a lot of solid games on the Valley slate this week but no other contest has the storylines quite like this one. Former Razorback head coach Bobby Petrino heads back to Fayetteville for the first time since 2012, when the former coach was fired amid scandal.

For now, both sides are taking the high road on Petrino's return, with Arkansas coach Sam Pittman crediting Petrino for having the success at Arkansas — 34-17 in four seasons, including an 11-win season and a trip to the Sugar Bowl — that the Razorbacks continue to recruit from.

As Wyatt D. Wheeler of the Springfield News-Leader writes,

Petrino is attempting to keep the focus on the field.

"I think we'll see when I get there," Petrino said. "Right now, I'm just going to think about the week and the preparation and what our players need to do. I'm sure there will be some feelings and emotions when I step into the stadium but it's not really about me. It's about our football team. Since June, we've been the same team dedicated and working hard together. It's really about our players."

In year three for Missouri State, Petrino has a talented roster, led by Shelley, who is one of 26 transfers from the FBS on the Bears' roster and used to be on the Utah and Utah State squads. Arkansas, however, has been revitalized under Pittman and dynamite quarterback K.J. Jefferson.

But for all of the FBS-FCS upsets in Valley history — including 12 Valley wins since the 2014 season — only one has come at the expense of a top-25 FBS team, with NDSU's win over Iowa coming at the hands of the then-No. 11 Hawkeyes. Never has a victory been claimed over a top-10 team and the Bears have a decent chance on Saturday night against the Razorbacks, who have contests with Texas A&M and Alabama looming in the next two weeks.

* One of two MVFC starting quarterbacks in the NFL, NDSU's Carson Wentz got his career with the Washington Commanders off to a good start with a 28-22 win over the Jaguars. Wentz went 27-for-41 passing for 313 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions, becoming the first Washington quarterback to throw for 300-plus yards and four touchdowns in a single game since 2015. His final touchdown of the day went to rookie wide receiver Jahan Dotson to give the Commanders the lead with just 1:46 left in regulation.

* The other Bison starting under center, Trey Lance got the nod for the 49ers. Lance struggled in a loss to the Bears, going 13-for-28 through the air with no touchdowns and an interception, while rushing for 54 yards in a 19-10 loss at Soldier Field.

* Former Illinois State and current Jacksonville Jaguars running back James Robinson carried the ball 11 times for 66 yards and a score and added a 3-yard receiving score in a 28-22 loss at the Commanders.

* Green Bay's second-round rookie wide receiver from NDSU, Christian Watson, hauled in two passes for 34 yards and tacked on a run for seven yards in a season-opening loss to the Vikings.

However, the former Bison dropped a deep pass from Aaron Rodgers on the Packers' first offensive play of the season.

* South Dakota State's Dallas Goedert started his season off with three catches for 60 yards for the Eagles during a 38-35 win over the Lions.