Insider: 10 bold predictions for the 2022 Colts season

Another season is upon us, and it means it's time to throw out some predictions that surely have no chance of going wrong. I'm taking these bold predictions over from Jim Ayello, who accurately hit on several of his last year, such as Nyheim Hines' drop in production, Bobby Okereke leading the team in tackles, no tight end topping 400 receiving yards and the Colts topping 33 takeaways.

On Wednesday, Joel A. Erickson and I put out our game-by-game predictions for the Colts this season.

These predictions are meant to be spicier.

My goal here is to predict things that are unlikely to happen but that I believe are possible. With those ground rules, here are some events that will unfold in the next calendar year:

Michael Pittman Jr. leads the AFC in receptions

The talk around the Colts this offseason usually starts with Matt Ryan and then extends into questions about whether he has enough to throw to. In these bold predictions, I'll walk through the ways I think he'll get to one of his better statistical seasons, and it starts with feeding another All-Pro player.

Michael Pittman Jr. broke out last year with his first 1,000-yard campaign. It was a big step for a second-year pro, nearly doubling his yardage from the year before, and yet Pittman Jr. wasn't remotely impressed by it when I talked to him the final week of the season. He'd been planning on 1,300 yards that year.

"I didn't really do anything," he said that day.

This is the confidence Pittman Jr. lives with, and it's how the Colts are willing to live right now. They let their other top two receivers leave in free agency in T.Y. Hilton and Zach Pascal. They only added one piece, second-round rookie Alec Pierce, whose role we'll get to soon. The tight ends also got worse with the retirement of Jack Doyle.

With more accurate quarterback play, plus a desire to emphasize the pass more, the Colts are setting themselves up to live through their top receiver. In an offense that's all about matchups, he's the 6-foot-5 athlete who transcends the idea. And when the Colts have to find plays they can trust, he might be the only one they throw to.

MORE: Can Matt Ryan take the Colts back to the playoffs? Insiders predict all 17 games

So here's predicting Pittman Jr. takes another jump and hits the lofty goals he sets for himself. A year after finishing 17th in receptions, he could jump up to the top spot in the AFC -- behind only Cooper Kupp, who lives in a world of his own. The number should be higher than 110, which would be about 6.5 per game. This prediction relies on him staying healthy, but he's shown that durability so far.

Nyheim Hines catches 70 passes

The Colts haven't hidden that they want Nyheim Hines to be more involved this year. He was the player they felt didn't see the "layups" their previous quarterback missed in the offense, and it caused him to fall from a career-high 63 catches in 2020 to just 40 last season.

The desire to get Hines back to his peak played into the decision to acquire Ryan, who has never had the biggest arm or great mobility but who has long taken the layups when he knows they'll be there. That's how Philip Rivers survived at age 39 with Hines in 2020, and it's a method Ryan picked up on immediately in organized training activities, throwing early and often to Hines.

The Colts have tucked many of those plays away for the regular season, but they're coming back. From screens to flares to wheels to dump-offs in the flats to motioning Hines out wide or into the slot and sending him every which way, the variety is aplenty.

At age 25, in his fifth year in Frank Reich's offense, Hines is ready for it. He's hungry after last season's disappointment. He's also never missed a game due to injury. It adds up to the kind of role that will always be there so long as Ryan can see it and exploit it. And it could produce as many as four catches a game for the offense's chess piece.

Parris Campbell plays 15 games and tops 800 yards

If It seems like Campbell never plays in games, it's because that's the one life you've lived with him as a Colts fan. A second-round pick in 2019, he's played in just 15 of a possible 49 games.

But Campbell has been playing football far longer than three years. In the eight years previous, through high school and college, Campbell never missed games to injury -- not as a 1,500-yard rusher against elite recruits in high school or as a 1,000-yard receiver in the rugged Big Ten.

What Campbell has endured in the pros is bad luck, with a broken foot, a broken hand and a torn MCL. They're not injuries you can play through, but they're not the soft-tissue kind tied to a history with the body part.

Campbell has not missed a practice since last season. In a contract year, he's locked into a slot receiver role where he gets to run what he calls the "bread-and-butter" plays that Matt Ryan loves in the middle of the field. For as long as he's out there, he'll be a singles hitter helping to move the chains and string together long drives.

He's due for some good luck on the injury front. Injuries don't just take a player off the field but also halt his momentum. Here's saying Campbell plays 15 games this season and finishes second on the team in receiving yards.

Jonathan Taylor falls 400 yards short of last year's rushing total

Jonathan Taylor is still the Colts' best player. He's still the identity of their offense. He's probably the best running back in the NFL.

So this is not a prediction about doubting Taylor's abilities. It's a reflection of the reality of today's NFL, of what happens to its best running backs: They fall off in production sometimes. The fall can be steep.

Taylor is going to take a step back from the 332 carries for 1,811 yards he posted in his second season because that's the Colts' plan. They want a more balanced offense with Ryan under center, and they want to save Taylor as much as they can so he doesn't break down like running backs do.

So expect the rushing total to go down by volume and for carries to turn into receptions, where he can make plays in safer physical matchups. He'll still be prolific, busting what should be 10-yard runs into 70-yarders, but the consistency will not be the same after the loss of Jack Doyle's superb blocking.

Taylor might also miss a couple games because that's what running backs do. Derrick Henry was the previous back thought to be an anomaly to durability concerns, and he missed half the season last year.

So this prediction is about the touches going down, the games going down and Taylor still being as electric as possible on the plays he does get.

Alec Pierce does not finish in the top 8 on the team in receiving

If Pittman Jr. is going to lead the AFC in receptions and Campbell is going to catch 800 yards and Hines is going to haul in 70 passes ... well, then a lot of things went right for them. But it would also mean something else had to give.

The one new Colts' receiver arrived as a second-round pick, and given the needs at a position where only Pittman Jr. topped 400 yards last season, that brought expectations. But Pierce has never profiled as a high-volume player. At Cincinnati, he topped out at 52 receptions for 884 yards last season, in 14 games in the American Athletic Conference. He finished his career with 1,852 yards in three seasons. He did average a sterling 17.5 yards per catch, which is why he's here.

Pierce will fill a key role this year as the starting 'Z' receiver who can block well in a Taylor offense and kill a defense with a deep ball if they commit too much to stopping the run. It will be about moments, not volume, and that's fitting for a rookie who has lots of nuances to learn after coming from a lower level of competition. He's run primarily slants and fades in practice because that's what he excels at so far.

So he'll make some plays, but he could fall behind the receiving totals of the following players: Pittman Jr., Campbell, Hines, Taylor, Mo Alie-Cox, Kylen Granson and Ashton Dulin.

It's fun to expect big things from a rookie, but remember that Pittman Jr. only had 503 yards as a rookie on this team. The adjustment can be difficult, and veteran quarterbacks tend to throw to the ones they trust the most. Pierce will need to earn that.

Led by DeForest Buckner, the Colts finish in the top 5 in sacks

Pass rush was not a strength of the Colts under Matt Eberflus, whose defenses did just about everything else the past four years. Last year, that part of the game fell to rock bottom as the Colts managed just 33 sacks. Only six teams had fewer.

But much is changed this year. Gus Bradley is running the defense, which means employing an "attack" style of four-man front that plays two ends in the wide-nine stance so they can explode like sprinters after the ball. Yannick Ngakoue is here to play that spot, and he's posted between eight and 12 sacks in all six seasons so far. He hasn't often played next to a three-technique like DeForest Buckner, who is raving about a scheme he played in in San Francisco, where he posted a 12-sack season.

Beyond that, the Colts should play with plenty of leads, which will play into that "attack" mindset up front. It'll allow players to think less and use their athleticism, which should help second-year players Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo, as well as Tyquan Lewis, who is coming back from a patellar tendon injury. The bump-and-run tendencies of cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Brandon Facyson should allow for some quick pressure without somewhere to dump the ball.

This prediction would require at least 15 more sacks than a year ago. It could come through tying career-highs for Ngakoue and Buckner and a Paye breakout.

Isaiah Rodgers Sr. leads Colts in interceptions

The Colts have some ballhawks on a defense that has finished in the top 10 in takeaways in four straight seasons. Shaquille Leonard, of course, is outstanding in zone coverage and at punching the ball away. Kenny Moore II is also like a hawk in zone. Stephon Gilmore has a cerebral sense of where the ball is going and picked off six passes as the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year with the Patriots in 2019.

And this prediction says they'll all finish with fewer picks than someone who is currently a backup.

Isaiah Rodgers Sr. has the best hands and tracking ability of them all. It goes back to his days as a high school receiver. The way he describes it, he's baiting quarterbacks into seeing a guy open and then running the ball down with recovery speed and catching it from odd angles. It's like playing punt return on defense.

The numbers have showcased it in small samples. Rodgers Sr. picked off three passes despite playing fewer than 50% of the defensive snaps. Against Buffalo in the preseason, the last time he was on the field, he forced two turnovers in nine snaps.

This is also a prediction of other players falling short. Gilmore should lead the group but has missed 14 games in two seasons and could miss some more. Facyson has to keep his spot with little safety help over top. And Moore II has to find ways to be close to the ball in a defense that de-emphasizes the nickel. Expect the turnovers to go down and for Rodgers Sr. to lead the way.

The Colts receive a top-40 draft pick from the Commanders

The Colts will be monitoring the play of Carson Wentz and not just because he's one of the quarterbacks on the schedule this season. How much and how well he plays will decide what kind of Day 2 pick they'll receive next spring.

If Wentz plays at least 70% of Washington's offensive snaps this year, the Colts will receive a second-rounder.

Here's predicting that Wentz will play a lot and play poorly, netting one of the eight worst records in the NFL.

He'll play a lot because he's all the Commanders have. Their backups include Taylor Heineke, who started 15 games last year and prompted the trade for Wentz; and Sam Howell, a fifth-round rookie out of North Carolina.

The Commanders will play Wentz even if he's struggling in order to justify all they gave up. The comments the franchise keeps putting out there, including an impassioned defense against the mean but accurate questions of a TV reporter, feel like they're trying to speak something into existence. Something that has fallen apart with different teams in two straight seasons.

Wentz has struggled with confidence before, and now he's playing in a major market, in the same division as the Eagles, with road games against Frank Reich and Doug Pederson. His team now doesn't have a Jonathan Taylor to pivot to, and if they keep playing him through the struggles, they could lose enough to provide a nice draft pick to the Colts.

The Colts reach the AFC Championship Game ... and lose on the final play

Most of the predictions on this list are positive, which is not how I would have done them a year ago for this franchise. But ceilings change based on the building-wide belief in the quarterback, and Ryan has lifted many spirits so far. He also brings something teammates keep talking up, which is playoff experience: In 10 postseason games, he's thrown 20 touchdowns to 7 interceptions with a rating of 100.8.

That will matter when the Colts get into the playoffs, and I have them going 12-5 to win the AFC South. That will net a home playoff game, which Colts fans will show out for given the time off since the last one. Like the Bengals showed out last year, winning one playoff game can get a young team believing, and that belief mixed with Taylor and a good defense will then help them spring an upset of a team like the Chiefs or Chargers.

The road through the AFC will go through Buffalo this year, and that's about as difficult of a road trip as it gets. Though the Colts destroyed the Bills on that field a year ago, it took a superhuman effort from Taylor to do so, and this Bills defense will be stingier than that one. It'll require Ryan to make some plays, and he will, going blow for blow with Josh Allen in a tight contest.

The Colts will have a chance to send the game to overtime, and on a cold day in front of crazed fans with a Super Bowl appearance on the line, Rodrigo Blankenship will line up for the kick and come up short.

Your strengths get you into the playoffs and your weaknesses get you out. The Colts will be the next to learn how important of a championship ingredient the kicker is.

Indianapolis trades Kenny Moore II after the season ... for Justin Fields

Just in case these weren't bold enough for you, let's extend them into the offseason for one last Hail Mary.

The new approach to this Colts defense has created mostly positive vibes so far, but it's hard not to notice how quiet Kenny Moore II has become. He tried a hold-in for a reworked contract, but that fell on deaf ears and he reported for training camp. He's put his head down and worked, quieter than normal, but he hasn't made too many plays, good or bad.

That's because the scheme is no longer built around the nickel cornerback, something that's usually a patched-together position in Seattle-style defenses. Moore II could break out of those limitations, but late last season showed his own limitations in man coverage or when he doesn't have eyes planted on the quarterback in likely throwing lanes. He might just not be in as many positions to make plays this year.

If that happens, the gulf will widen between how he perceives his value and how the team does. Meanwhile, the Colts have possible extensions to work out with Quenton Nelson and Ngakoue, plus Pittman Jr. and Taylor after that. Ngakoue is in a contract year, and he'll need double-digit millions to return to the most important role on defense.

To clear the space, the Colts trade Moore II to a place that will pay him what he wants. That's Eberflus' team, which badly needs a high-end player to help install the culture after a rough first season. The Bears happen to have a quarterback the Colts loved out of the draft in Justin Fields, and if Chicago is picking at the top of the draft, it could be for his replacement.

Ryan has another year left in Indianapolis, but Fields could need some rewiring after a rough experience in Chicago. A year of learning Reich's offense from a Pro Bowler while subbing in for run packages with Taylor could help create the bridge to the future in a way that's suddenly affordable.

It's risky, but so is every unproven young quarterback, and it's time for the Colts to get bold a year before they need to.

Contact Colts insider Nate Atkins at natkins@indystar.com. Follow him on Twitter @NateAtkins_.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Insider: 10 bold predictions for the 2022 Colts season