Insider: 18 things to watch in Colts-Vikings matchup on Saturday

INDIANAPOLIS — A Colts team fighting desperately to avoid playoff elimination is coming off of the bye week to take on a Minnesota team trying to clinch a division title.

Because of a wrinkle in the NFL’s schedule, the Colts and Vikings will open the weekend by playing at 1 p.m. Saturday in Minnesota’s U.S. Bank Stadium, in a game televised by Fox-59 locally and the NFL Network nationally.

Despite the difference in records, the Vikings (10-3) are not as big a favorite over the Colts (4-8-1) as the NFC’s other power teams have been in recent weeks, and it’s because Minnesota has been an opportunistic team that actually has a negative point differential (minus-1), but the Vikings have been exceptional in one-score games, going 9-0.

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Minnesota has a lot of vulnerabilities for a 10-3 team, offering an opportunity for the Colts to break their three-game losing streak.

Indianapolis, of course, has struggled to take advantage of chances all season long, and a loss would put the Colts in jeopardy of being eliminated from the playoffs during Sunday’s games.

Why the Colts can score vs. the Vikings

1. An anemic Colts offense has a chance to put up some points Saturday. Minnesota’s defense ranks 25th in the NFL in points allowed (24.1 per game), 31st in yards per play (6.09) and dead last in yards per game, hemorrhaging 403.7. The last time the Colts played a defense with a profile like that, Indianapolis put up 25 points in Las Vegas and beat the Raiders, the franchise’s only win in the last seven games.

2. Unlike the Raiders, though, Minnesota’s defense has a penchant for big plays this season. The Vikings are tied for eighth in the NFL with 20 takeaways (12 interceptions, eight fumbles), and the Colts remain the NFL’s worst team at protecting the football, turning the ball over a whopping 26 times (14 interceptions, 12 fumbles) this season, four more than any other team in the NFL.

Who do the Colts need to avoid vs. the Vikings?

3. The key players Matt Ryan must avoid in the Minnesota secondary will come as no surprise to long-running NFL fans. Vikings safety Harrison Smith leads the team with five interceptions, and legendary cornerback Patrick Peterson has three.

4. Two more big names are the key to slowing down the Vikings pass rush. Veterans Za’Darius Smith (9.5 sacks) and Danielle Hunter (7) are the two key weapons for a Minnesota pass rush that has been pedestrian overall, recording just 30 sacks all season long and ranking just 22nd in sacks per pass attempt. If Bernhard Raimann can hold up at left tackle and the Colts can give help to Will Fries inside at right guard, Ryan should have time to operate.

5. If Ryan has time in the pocket, he should have opportunities to move the ball. Minnesota has given up more than 300 passing yards in five straight games and seven of the last eight. Defensive coordinator Ed Donatell’s scheme is modeled after Vic Fangio’s two-high approach, but the Vikings have done a poor job of sticking to receivers. Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce and Parris Campbell should have room to work on Saturday.

6. Ryan’s quick-throw approach hasn’t produced a lot of chunk plays this season — the Colts have just three passing plays of 40 yards or more, all to Pierce — but the Vikings give up completions and yards in bunches. Minnesota is giving up 7.7 passing yards per attempt, the worst mark in the league by a tenth of a yard.

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7. Rookie tight end Jelani Woods was given just 15 snaps two weeks ago, even though he was coming off of an eight-catch, 98-yard performance in 41 snaps against Pittsburgh. The team’s best big-play threat at tight end, Woods (17 catches, 205 yards, three touchdowns) should probably play more against Minnesota’s awful pass defense. The Vikings have coverage issues at the linebacker position.

8. As bad as Minnesota has been all season against the pass, the Vikings have recently struggled almost the same way against the run. Five of the last six teams Minnesota has played have rushed for 120 yards or more, and the Colts have been resolute in sticking with Jonathan Taylor in Jeff Saturday’s short tenure. Indianapolis ranks just 26th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (100.2) and yards per carry (4.04), but Taylor’s overall numbers — 861 yards, 4.5 yards per carry, four scores — are solid, given the fact that he missed three games due to an ankle injury.

9. Indianapolis play-caller Parks Frazier probably needs to throw the ball more on first down. Since Saturday took over, the Colts have been a heavy-run team on first down, and it’s clear opposing defenses have geared up to stop it. Hit some play-action on first down early and Donatell might have to back his defense off the line of scrimmage, opening more holes for Taylor.

Why the fourth quarter will be important in Colts vs. Vikings

10. How a team plays in one-score games is often somewhat random — a team with a good record in close games is likely due for a regression at some point — but the Vikings are undefeated in one-score games this season because of how they’ve played in the fourth quarter. Minnesota is outscoring opponents 110-66 in the final quarter this season; the Colts, of course, are coming off of a 33-0 fourth-quarter drubbing at the hands of the Cowboys, and Saturday’s most questionable in-game decisions as interim coach so far have come in the fourth quarter.

11. Indianapolis has been awful in the second quarter in 2022, outscored 115-47.

12. Minnesota’s passing game runs through wide receiver Justin Jefferson. The third-year superstar already has 99 catches for 1,500 yards and six touchdowns this season, and he gets an Indianapolis secondary that will likely be short-handed at cornerback, given the absence of an injured Kenny Moore II and the likely absence of fourth cornerback Brandon Facyson. The Colts have dabbled this season in asking Stephon Gilmore to move all over the formation to take on the opponent’s best receiver. Given the injuries at cornerback, this seems like a week to stick Gilmore on No. 18 on as many snaps as possible.

13. Slowing down Jefferson is even more important because he’s essentially been Minnesota’s only big-play weapon in the passing game. Outside of Jalen Reagor, whose 38-yard catch has inflated his yards per reception on just six catches, Jefferson is the only Vikings receiving option averaging more than 10.2 yards per catch. Kirk Cousins is averaging just 6.8 yards per attempt, an ugly number given the weapons the Vikings have at his disposal.

14. Expect Indianapolis to play three safeties together a lot in Saturday’s game. With Moore II out against Dallas, the Colts gave heavy workloads to Rodney McLeod (68 snaps), Julian Blackmon (68) and Rodney Thomas II (58). A similar game plan from Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley would make sense again this week, especially against a Minnesota offense that has gotten 36 catches from tight end T.J. Hockenson in six games since trading for him at the deadline.

15. The best way to slow down the Minnesota passing attack is to get to Cousins early and often. Cousins is averaging a relatively middle-of-the-pack 2.85 seconds from snap to throw, and opponents have capitalized by sacking him 33 times, including seven times in a blowout loss to the Cowboys and four times in last week’s loss to the Lions. Defensive tackle DeForest Buckner and the end tandem of Kwity Paye and Yannick Ngakoue have to make life tough on Cousins in the pocket.

16. Banged up for weeks, the Vikings offensive line is getting healthy just in time to face Indianapolis. Christian Darrisaw is back at left tackle, and Garrett Bradbury should be back at center, solidifying a unit that has struggled in recent weeks.

17. The Minnesota rushing attack is a lot like the one the Colts are bringing North. Star running back Dalvin Cook’s numbers this season — 950 yards, 4.5 yards per carry, eight touchdowns — look pretty good, but the overall attack has been relatively punchless. Minnesota ranks 27th in the NFL in yards per game (95.6) and 22nd in yards per rush, and even with Darrisaw and Bradbury back, the Vikings face a tough test against a Grover Stewart-led Colts run defense that still ranks sixth in the NFL in yards allowed per carry (4.15).

18. The Colts have to be excellent on a play-to-play basis because Indianapolis has been one of the league’s worst teams at creating takeaways without the services of All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard this season. The Colts are tied for 28th in the NFL with just 12 takeaways (five interceptions, seven fumbles) this season, and they’ve forced just three in the past four games.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Colts vs. Vikings: 18 things to watch in Saturday's matchup