Insider: 22 things to watch as Colts battle Titans for AFC South lead

INDIANAPOLIS — For all the problems the Colts have been trying to correct, they have a golden opportunity in front of them.

A Titans team that has been a stumbling block for Indianapolis is standing in the way.

If the Colts can snap a four-game losing streak to Tennessee at 1 p.m. Sunday at Nissan Stadium, Indianapolis would be in first place in the AFC South despite its awful start in the division, and the Colts would have only one game left against a division opponent, the season finale against the Houston Texans.

But first the Colts (3-2-1) have to beat the Titans (3-2), a team that has won three consecutive games, is coming off a bye and won the first matchup against Indianapolis this season.

“The thing that Tennessee does as well as anybody is they don’t beat themselves,” Colts head coach Frank Reich said. “They’re really good at situational football, they don’t beat themselves., turnover ratio is normally pretty good and they are a very disciplined team. … All roads go through Nashville.”

Can the Colts stop Derrick Henry?

1. Titans star Derrick Henry turned in his best performance of the season in the first meeting between these two teams, ripping through the Colts for 114 yards on 22 carries and adding three catches for 33 yards. Indianapolis did not have defensive tackle DeForest Buckner at full strength in that game, and although Buckner is healthy now, the Colts have to take on Tennessee without the talents of Kwity Paye, the team’s best defensive end so far this season.

2. Indianapolis is coming off of its worst performance against the run this season. Jacksonville racked up 243 yards on 33 carries against the Colts last week, mostly by attacking the perimeter and avoiding the interior tandem of Buckner and Grover Stewart. Making matters worse, Henry is actually at his best on the perimeter despite his impressive size. The Colts are going to need their defensive ends, and defensive backs in particular, to play better in the ground game than they have so far this season.

3. Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley cited unscouted looks as one of the problems that killed the Indianapolis run defense against the Jaguars, and it’s fair to expect the Titans to bring out a lot of wrinkles this week. Tennessee is coming off of a bye week, a week likely spent looking for ways to inject life into the offense.

4. If the Colts can slow down Henry, there’s an opportunity to bring the Tennessee offense to a grinding halt. The Titans are 31st in the NFL in yards per game this season, 27th in yards per carry on the ground and 28th in passing yards per game. Tennessee has also failed to break the 250-yard mark in three of its five games this season.

5. Tennessee has turned it over just six times, and four of those six turnovers came in a blowout loss to the Bills in Week 2. Indianapolis, on the other hand, hasn’t shown this season that it’s the kind of defense that can capitalize on another team’s mistakes; the Colts have forced just six turnovers, 23rd in the NFL, and takeaway machine Shaquille Leonard will miss this game due to continued recovery from the concussion and fractured nose he suffered in the first matchup.

Can the Colts pressure Ryan Tannehill?

6. Protecting quarterback Ryan Tannehill has become a problem for Tennessee. The Titans lost left tackle Taylor Lewan for the season, won’t have starting right guard Nate Davis due to injury and have given up eight sacks in the past two games. If the Colts can force the Titans into obvious passing situations, an Indianapolis pass rush that has 11 sacks in its last three games should have the advantage.

7. Expect the Colts to keep moving Buckner around the defensive line in order to try to get the big tackle more one-on-one matchups. Buckner has rushed from both defensive end spots in addition to his normal tackle spot in recent weeks, and the Titans have a rookie, Nicholas Petit-Frere, at right tackle and a fill-in, Dennis Daley, at left tackle.

8. Yannick Ngakoue has 2.5 sacks this season, but he hasn’t been a consistent pass rush presence yet for the Colts. With Daley on tap again this week, Ngakoue has to start being the dominant edge rusher he was brought to Indianapolis to be.

9. Tennessee’s likely going to rely on the game plan to keep pressure off Tannehill. Indianapolis has struggled with screens throughout the season, and the Titans will likely emphasize Henry in the passing game, as well as play-action rollouts with Tannehill that get him away from the pocket. Fellow Tennessee running back Dontrell Hilliard (12 catches, 132 yards) is actually the team’s second-leading receiver this year.

10. What the Titans have done to offset their lack of total yardage overall is make their good drives count. Tennessee is scoring touchdowns on a remarkable 92.3% of its red-zone trips, the best mark in the NFL. The Indianapolis defense, by comparison, ranks just 24th in the NFL in the red zone, inflating the points the Colts have allowed despite solid overall yardage numbers.

What to expect out of the Colts' offense with Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines

11. The return of Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines makes the Indianapolis offense a bit of a wild card this week. Without Taylor or Hines last week, the Colts went pass-heavy, throwing it 58 times and turning in their best performance of the season in the process, but Indianapolis coaches made it clear this week that teams will start catching on to that approach. If the Colts can get Taylor, in particular, going on the ground again, it would put the Titans in a bind defensively.

12. Beset by offensive line problems, Indianapolis is averaging a paltry 3.5 yards per game on the ground, and Taylor is at just 4.0 yards per carry himself, by far the worst mark of his career. Tennessee’s run defense is 19th in the NFL in yards per carry, allowing 4.5 yards per rush, but the Titans are sixth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and shut down the Colts to the tune of just 38 rushing yards in the first matchup. Tennessee followed up that performance by limiting Washington to just 43 yards rushing on 17 carries. Based on the way the Titans have been playing, it might be hard to get Taylor back on track this week.

13. By the same token, Tennessee’s defense has been terrible against the pass, giving up more than 300 yards through the air in each of the last four games. The Titans rank dead last in the NFL in both passing yards allowed per game (287.6) and yards per attempt (7.9). With that in mind, the Colts might opt to put Matt Ryan in the driver’s seat again after throwing 58 passes to beat the Jaguars.

14. The Colts torched the Titans through the air in the first meeting, but Tennessee’s pass rush forced two Ryan fumbles, picked off a Ryan pass and effectively neutralized the impact of 356 passing yards from Ryan. Indianapolis finally kept Ryan clean against the Jaguars with its fourth different offensive line look this season, or fifth, counting Dennis Kelly’s takeover at left tackle after the first two series.

15. Kelly understands this rivalry well. The veteran tackle spent five seasons in Tennessee, and he’ll likely spend most of his day matched up against edge rusher Rashad Weaver, who has four sacks on the season so far.

Will Denico Autry hurt the Colts again?

16. The strength of the Titans’ defense is on the interior of the defensive line. Former Colt Denico Autry whipped Indianapolis in the first matchup, including beating Quenton Nelson straight-up for a sack, and defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons (3.5 sacks) is one of the best in the NFL. Tennessee’s pass rush has been average overall, ranking 14th in the NFL in sacks per pass attempt, but every game for Indianapolis this season is about finding ways to neutralize the other team’s best pass rushers. Nelson, Ryan Kelly and Matt Pryor have to keep Autry and Simmons from wrecking the game plan again.

17. One of the other ways the Titans have made up for their terrible overall numbers this season has been the way Tennessee has dominated third down. The Titans have allowed opponents to convert just 27.1% of third downs; Indianapolis, on the other hand, has risen to 10th in the NFL on third down offensively, helped in part by converting 10 of its final 11 against the Jaguars. When the Colts get to third down, they have to keep Ryan clean enough to attack the Tennessee secondary and linebackers.

18. The Indianapolis tight ends torched Tennessee in the first matchup between the two teams. Knowing that the Titans’ linebackers often attack the line of scrimmage, Mo Alie-Cox, Kylen Granson and Jelani Woods combined to catch 11 passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns on 11 targets, and Tennessee will be missing inside linebacker Zach Cunningham on Sunday.

19. If Tennessee tries to drop back in an effort to take the tight ends away, expect Hines to have a big day out of the backfield. The Colts have emphasized the quick passing game the past couple of weeks to keep people off of Ryan, and running backs caught 13 passes against the Jaguars. Tennessee faces a choice: Come forward and take away Hines, or expose itself to the tight ends again.

Why to expect another big game from Alec Pierce

20. An undistinguished group of Titans cornerbacks is going to need some help against rookie Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce. Pierce is a bona fide deep threat, and if he gets 1-on-1 opportunities against Tennessee, Ryan is going to give the rookie some chances.

21. The emergence of Pierce and Parris Campbell is going to make life more difficult on Tennessee’s secondary this time around. The Titans bracketed Michael Pittman Jr. in the first matchup, limiting Pittman Jr. to three catches for 31 yards. Do that again, and Ryan should be much more comfortable going to his other options.

22. Ball security will likely decide this game once again. Without an ability to beat teams on a play-by-play basis, the Titans have won three consecutive games by being excellent in situational football, and although Ryan kept a clean sheet against Jacksonville last week, he still has 10 turnovers this season. If Ryan can avoid backbreaking mistakes this week, there should be opportunity for the Colts.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Colts vs. Titans: 22 things to watch in AFC South battle