Insider: Here's a look at the potential 2022 Indy 500 field six months from race day

With calendars nearing December, we’re now closer to the celebratory milk chug of next year’s Indianapolis 500 champion than Helio Castroneves’ party on the front stretch this past May.

You know what that means?

It’s time for a way, way too early look at the prospective field for the 106th running of the Greatest Spectacle in Racing. At the moment, 23 drivers have been announced, including six rookies, with as many as 15 more drivers (and likely another rookie or two) still to go.

Here’s where things stand (future rookies are listed in ALL CAPS).

Confirmed Indy 500 entries

Though several of these don’t have a driver attached to them yet, we know, barring truly unforeseen circumstances, the respective teams will be running these entries with someone come May.

Honda (16)

Chip Ganassi Racing (5): Scott Dixon, Alex Palou, Marcus Ericsson, Tony Kanaan, JIMMIE JOHNSON

Andretti Autosport (4): Colton Herta, Alexander Rossi, ROMAIN GROSJEAN, DEVLIN DEFRANCESCO

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing (3): Graham Rahal, Jack Harvey, CHRISTIAN LUNDGAARD

Meyer Shank Racing (2): Helio Castroneves, Simon Pagenaud

Dale Coyne Racing (2): TBD, TBD

Chevy (11)

Team Penske (3): Josef Newgarden, Will Power, Scott McLaughlin

Ed Carpenter Racing (3): Ed Carpenter, Rinus VeeKay, TBD

Arrow McLaren SP (2): Pato O’Ward, Felix Rosenqvist

A.J. Foyt Racing (2): KYLE KIRKWOOD, TBD

Juncos Hollinger Racing (1): CALLUM ILOTT

Notes

>>No, we haven’t been given the press release on Johnson making his 500 debut, but Chip Ganassi told the Associated Press earlier this month that the 46-year-old would run the race as expected, giving CGR five cars at the 500 for the first time since 2015.

More: Johnson will run 2022 Indy 500 with Ganassi, according to report

>>Though DCR is yet to announce either of its full-season drivers, it’s been widely expected around the paddock for several weeks that 2021 Indy Lights runner-up David Malukas and two-time 500 champ Takuma Sato will fill those seats.

>>With the loss of U.S. Air Force sponsorship, ECR’s third seat is far more wide-open than previously believed. It would take a lot for previous front-runners Conor Daly and Ryan Hunter-Reay to land it without USAF backing, and it paves the way for drivers already with funding, like Stefan Wilson or Max Chilton.

More: Carpenter loses Air Force sponsorship, leaving Daly's future with the team uncertain

Wilson is backed by Don Cusick, who helped fund his 2021 Indy 500 ride with Andretti. Cusick has aspirations of eventually fielding a team full-time and is believed to have the funding in place to back more than just an Indy 500-only ride for Wilson in 2022. Chilton’s IndyCar future, as well as his team of several years (Carlin), is muddy at best, though there’s reason to believe his family would have the funds to place him in a seat again if he desires. Wilson and Chilton would make logical sense to run the entire road-and-street (plus 500) program for ECR in 2022.

>>As he’s said for several months, Larry Foyt expects Dalton Kellett to return to his full-time role in the No. 4 in 2022, leaving that fourth ‘TBD’ on the list a relative formality.

Likely Indy 500 entries

Here’s where we start to see the effects of the heavy disparity between Honda and Chevy in full-time engine programs. With one notable exception, if you’re a driver without a full-time ride and you’re wanting to make a run at the Indy 500 next year, you’re almost certainly talking to a Chevy team. Entries on this list range from those that have been spoken about publicly by teams to those we expect at the race year after year.

Each team listed would have one (or one more than listed above) entry in these scenarios.

Honda (1)

Andretti Autosport: Michael Andretti is presumed to run an additional entry for his son Marco, which the latter tweeted last week is the plan at the moment. A driver in the paddock currently without a ride recently told IndyStar he believed Andretti would be maxed out at five cars for May, meaning the younger Andretti would be the team's only one-off addition to go with its two-car technical alliance with MSR and four-car full-season program.

Chevy (6)

Arrow McLaren SP: Team officials have said multiple times in recent months that AMSP plans to field a third full-time entry starting in 2023. To do so, they may follow a similar path toward ramping up RLL ran earlier this year in fielding another car most of the second-half of the year. That would almost certainly include a third car for the 500, which they’ve done in recent years when a third full-time car wasn’t in the picture.

A.J. Foyt Racing: Given Foyt said earlier this month that a third full-time car is within the realm of possibilities, it would stand to reason the team that attempted to qualify four cars for last year’s 500 and has run a third in six of the last seven 500s would do so in 2022.

Insider: With Foyt, Kyle Kirkwood's IndyCar future hangs in the balance

Dreyer and Reinbold Racing: The team has been a mainstay at the 500 since 2000, and after finishing 7th with Sage Karam this year, there’s no reason to think that’ll stop any time soon.

Paretta Autosport: Since the team’s debut in 2021, aided by a technical alliance with Team Penske, Beth Paretta has been working to continue to build this team’s foundation. Though they have nothing set yet, it would be prudent to expect them to return to IMS in 2022.

Top Gun Racing: Despite not making the field in their debut at last May’s 500, TGR owner Bill Throckmorton and his team have continued to push full-steam ahead to create some sort of partial-season program for 2022. With RC Enerson as their driver, expect them to make another attempt to qualify for the 500.

Marotti Autosport: The team’s partially fan-funded ‘Spirit of Speedway’ entry has raised nearly $60,000 at the time of writing as owner Will Marotti eyes partnering with another already-established team for May or going alone.

Possible Indy 500 entries

Should all the above entries matriculate, we will have already guaranteed bumping during the Sunday of qualifying weekend, with 34 cars vying for 33 spots. As we move past that and into the mid- or upper-30s, it becomes increasingly less likely to see additions. Teams and sponsors start to know they’re not guaranteed to make the race, especially weaker teams like Foyt or brand-new teams like Top Gun Racing, who together made up the list of bumped entries in 2021.

For 2022 especially, engine partners Honda and Chevy will be less-inclined to push the limit on the number of engine programs they run in May, the last 500 with the current engine makeup. A Honda official recently told IndyStar the company considers 18 it’s near-max on 500 engine leases, though they could jump to 19 “in a pinch.” Any more, and they’d have to build more engines and hire more people than they’re inclined to. A Chevy official told IndyStar that running 20 cars in May “would be a struggle” from a quality-control perspective, so something in the 17-19 range would be much more likely.

The 34 included above give both Honda and Chevy 17 each, meaning we’ll likely see a couple of these final possibilities, but not all of them. Even still, the 2022 Indy 500 may very well tie or set the mark for the most entries that attempt to qualify for the race in the last decade. In 2011, 40 cars ran during qualifying weekend, and since, only as many as 36 (2019) have done so.

Honda (3)

Andretti Autosport: As said above, this may not be likely unless Michael Andretti is approached with a package too good to refuse. But if Honda were to reach their limit of 18 entries, this seems one of the few possible landing spots.

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing: Bobby Rahal told IndyStar in September the team could run a fourth car in the 500 in 2022, but it’s by no means a foregone conclusion, given RLL’s expansion to three full-time cars this year.

Dale Coyne Racing: Up until this past May, Coyne had run three cars in the 500 eight consecutive years. Whether the past or present will set the precedent for 2022 remains to be seen.

Chevy (3)

A.J. Foyt Racing: It seems unlikely Foyt would attempt a four-car program as they did this year, when only three made the field. The attrition the team saw on crew, engineers and others this offseason has them still hiring to fill out its two full-time programs. Could a fourth car happen? Maybe, but that may be biting off more than the team can chew while maintaining its desired level of competitiveness.

Juncos Hollinger Racing: It’s unclear the extent to which JHR and Carlin have formed any sort of partnership or struck any sort of deal this offseason, after most (if not all) of Carlin’s Indy Lights employees shifted to JHR’s program and the Carlin transporter was seen at JHR headquarters. If Ricardo Juncos and Brad Hollinger, who have aims to expand to a second full-time car for 2023, acquired a significant part of Carlin’s IndyCar assets, JHR may be in position to run a second car at IMS in May.

Insider: Juncos, Carlin may be nearing merger. Here's how both would benefit

Team Penske: Roger Penske and Tim Cindric have scaled back to three full-time Indy cars moving forward as Team Penske reignites its sportscar program in its previously-announced deal with Porsche. Still, it seems reasonable that, for the right driver, the owner of IMS and promoter of the Greatest Spectacle in Racing could put together another team if doing so would elevate excitement around the race (think: NASCAR Cup champ Kyle Larson).

Available Indy 500 drivers (including Kyle Larson)

The free agent market is ripe with talent and names that would be hard to imagine an Indy 500 without. It includes a former winner (Hunter-Reay), former pole-sitter (James Hinchcliffe), last year’s ‘laps led’ leader (Conor Daly), a four-time series champ (Sebastien Bourdais) and a driver who’s finished inside the top-7 in all three of his 500 runs (Santino Ferrucci). Add in other familiar names like JR Hildebrand, Charlie Kimball, Simona De Silvestro, Chilton and Wilson, and we reach a list that, when including the 26 drivers already confirmed (or nearly confirmed) means at least three of this pool won’t make the field come May.

And the pool doesn’t stop there. Teams will, at some level, consider dark horses like Pietro Fittipaldi and Ed Jones, who both ran in 2021, as well as Juan Pablo Montoya, who finished 9th this year in a May-only effort after four years away. Though his sights are set outside of IndyCar for full-time 2022 racing opportunities, Oliver Askew continues to sit on IndyCar team owner radars. Even if she hasn’t run the 500 since 2019, Pippa Mann would be a strong candidate with the proper amount of sponsorship behind her.

Beyond the seven rookies already mentioned (the most since eight ran in 2012), Tatiana Calderon has long been in the conversation for a Foyt IndyCar ride in 2022 (though it’s unclear whether that would include the 500 for the oval novice). Stoffel Vandoorne (Formula E with Mercedes) and Kevin Magnussen (WEC with Peugeot) have their full-time racing plates full in 2022, but both have expressed interest in future IndyCar opportunities and may be on AMSP’s short-list of potential third car options. In addition, Ryan Norman, who made his IndyCar debut in July with Coyne, could use a 500 ride to begin building a foundation for an IndyCar career.

This group wouldn’t be complete without again mentioning Larson, though it does seem as if the hype around him running the 500 has been driven far more by questions he’s been asked than his own desire to run the Greatest Spectacle in Racing. The most recent NASCAR driver to run the 500 while active in the Cup series, Kurt Busch, ran his first IMS oval test more than a year ahead of his 500 debut. There’s no guarantee Larson would have to follow a similar process, but given his lack of open-wheel experience and the level of attention that would follow such an endeavor, he would likely want to be more prepared than simply testing a couple times this spring and showing up in May.

Email IndyStar motor sports reporter Nathan Brown at nlbrown@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter: @By_NathanBrown.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Indy 500 2022: A look at the potential field six months from race day