Introducing China Starch Holdings (HKG:3838), The Stock That Dropped 33% In The Last Year

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Passive investing in an index fund is a good way to ensure your own returns roughly match the overall market. When you buy individual stocks, you can make higher profits, but you also face the risk of under-performance. That downside risk was realized by China Starch Holdings Limited (HKG:3838) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 33%. That falls noticeably short of the market return of around -3.0%. However, the longer term returns haven't been so bad, with the stock down 23% in the last three years. Furthermore, it's down 13% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 8.0% in the same period.

View our latest analysis for China Starch Holdings

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Unhappily, China Starch Holdings had to report a 43% decline in EPS over the last year. The share price fall of 33% isn't as bad as the reduction in earnings per share. It may have been that the weak EPS was not as bad as some had feared.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

SEHK:3838 Past and Future Earnings, October 8th 2019
SEHK:3838 Past and Future Earnings, October 8th 2019

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of China Starch Holdings's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of China Starch Holdings, it has a TSR of -28% for the last year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 3.0% in the twelve months, China Starch Holdings shareholders did even worse, losing 28% (even including dividends) . Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 4.3% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Importantly, we haven't analysed China Starch Holdings's dividend history. This free visual report on its dividends is a must-read if you're thinking of buying.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.

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