We investigated where Hudson Valley's school enrollment is headed. Here's what we found

For many public school districts in the Lower Hudson Valley, the future looks smaller.

Across the country, school districts are feeling the impact of declining enrollments and the Lower Hudson Valley is no different — over 70% of districts across Westchester, Rockland and Putnam counties have seen declines in recent years or project that declines are coming, according to district-specific enrollment data obtained by The Journal News/lohud.

There are, of course, exceptions. Districts in areas with booming development are anticipating more students from families who move into those communities, as is the case in Harrison and Tarrytowns, where district leaders say they are keeping an eye on the number of new residential units being built.

But for the most part, many Lower Hudson Valley school districts are seeing fewer students. Some districts are reconfiguring how they use their buildings with fewer students or closing schools altogether. Suffern is doing both — consolidating five elementary schools to four and reconfiguring the remaining schools so that two are for pre-K through second grade and the other two for grades 3-5.

Plenty of districts track enrollment projections several years out, though the farther out they go, the less reliable they are.

"On one level, people might argue projections are always wrong. Technically, that's true, but we can still learn a ton from projections and really prepare ourselves for how the communities are changing," said John Sipple, an educational policy expert at Cornell University.

How we measured enrollment at Hudson Valley school districts

The Journal News/lohud analyzed state enrollment data from 10 and five years ago for all school districts in Westchester, Rockland and Putnam counties (not including special-act school districts) and when possible, compared it to the most recent K-12 enrollment data for each district. We also looked at enrollment projections for future years.

Districts that provided projections often work with third party agencies that look at birth rates, housing trends and other factors to determine how many kids the district will see in future years.

Not all districts have enrollment projections beyond the next school year. Some didn't provide any projections, but didn't specify whether that means they use them either.

What are our key findings on Hudson Valley enrollment?

Past enrollment figures publicly accessible from the state Department of Education and available projections paint a picture largely of enrollment decline, reflective of a national trend.

Among the 54 public school districts in Westchester, Rockland and Putnam counties, 30, or 55%, saw decreases in enrollment from the 2012-13 school year to 2017-18, according to state data.

Thirteen saw increases of less than 5%.

Here's a closer look at 43 districts that provided enrollment numbers for 2022-23, compared to 10 years ago:

• Twenty-nine, or 67%, had fewer students enrolled than they did in 2012-13.

• Districts that saw the biggest declines were Somers (-21%), North Salem (-20%), Mount Vernon (-19%), Bedford (-18%) and South Orangetown (-17%).

• Two of the smallest districts saw the biggest gains: Pocantico Hills' saw a 62% increase and Garrison 38%.

• Peekskill and Ardsley saw the next highest gains: 18% and 16% respectively. Ossining's enrollment was 12% higher than a decade ago.

• The other nine districts showed an increase in students in the past decade, but only by single-digit percentages.

Of 16 districts that provided enrollment projections for five years out:

• Eleven of them are projecting declines in enrollment five years out. The biggest projected declines were reported by Haldane with -14%, and Ossining with -12%.

• Five projected increases in enrollment, but all were in the single digits: North Salem (less than 1%); Clarkstown (1%); Byram Hills (4%); Peekskill (4%); Rye (6%). And all saw substantial declines in enrollment in the past decade, with the exception of Peekskill which is up 18% compared to a decade ago.

Irvington projected a 2% increase in four years and Briarcliff projected no change in 2024-25 but they also have seen enrollment declines in the past decade.

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Why the decline?

While the biggest trend among Lower Hudson Valley districts is declining enrollment, each district faces its own unique set of circumstances.

Many districts have seen gradual enrollment declines over the past several years for a variety of reasons. Declining birth rates across the country, along with slow housing turnover have both contributed.

"If this is an attractive area where people are enjoying living there, their kids get older and kids age out of schools, and the parents don't move themselves and free up a house, there's not a house for somebody new to move in," said Sipple at Cornell. People in their 50s, 60s and 70s are staying in their homes longer — a trend that's playing out across the country, he said.

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How affordable communities are for families with children and the availability of jobs, childcare and healthcare all contribute to how attractive a community is to families, Sipple said.

Another factor that affects public school enrollments is the percentage of kids in the district who attend private schools instead. Districts see varying rates of students go to private schools. In Suffern, the district's population is growing but fewer kids are going to the public schools because many people moving there are opting for private yeshivas serving the Orthodox and Hasidic Jewish community.

Contact Diana Dombrowski at ddombrowski@gannett.com. Follow her on Twitter at @domdomdiana.

This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: Hudson Valley NY school enrollment projections: Check your district