It's been a good week for Investis Holding SA (VTX:IREN) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 7.6% to CHF79.40. It was a curious result overall, with revenues coming in an incredible 23% below what the analyst had expected, at CHF188m. Statutory earnings per share beat analyst models by 21% to hit CHF13.59. Following the result, the analyst has updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimate to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Investis Holding

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Investis Holding's one analyst is for revenues of CHF198.4m in 2020, which would reflect a satisfactory 5.8% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to nosedive 69% to CHF4.24 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analyst had been anticipated revenues of CHF213.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF4.58 in 2020. The analyst are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

What's most unexpected is that the consensus price target rose 7.3% to CHF88.00, strongly implying the downgrade to forecasts is not expected to be more than a temporary blip.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Investis Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 5.8% increase next year well below the historical 9.1%p.a. growth over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 6.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it's pretty clear that Investis Holding is still expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analyst reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Investis Holding. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates sales are expected to perform better than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analyst believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2022, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Investis Holding (1 is significant!) that you need to be mindful of.

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