For some investors, a 2nd chance in a volatile market to limit the damage| Retire on Track

Evan GuidoEvan Guido
Evan Guido

In Ernest Hemingway’s “The Sun Also Rises,” a character is asked how he went bankrupt. The response: “Gradually and then suddenly.”

That’s how some bear markets feel. A few percentage points here, a few percentage points there, maybe a bounce back, then a sustained drop.

So the bear market that officially began in mid-June, the 13th since World War II, might have you off-guard. Overvalued individual equities in your portfolio, as well as market-capitalization-weighted index funds that were overly concentrated, might have suffered major declines before you had a chance to rotate out of them.

Worse, you might have known it was time to rotate out of certain holdings and ignored the warning signs. Certainly one these signs – rising inflation – had been in the news for months. Selling stocks that have done well for you is always difficult, but when they become overvalued you need to decide whether it’s time to find a better opportunity.

There are various metrics for determining a stock’s value, but the most widely used is the price-earnings ratio. When you see P/E ratios for a stock that are way higher than normal for that holding, it’s time to find out why. It can be because the price increased a lot, earnings dropped, or a combination of the two. Find out why, because over the long term a stock’s valuations tend to live within a certain range.

Making matters more complicated in many portfolios, during the first half of the year the bond market also was in disarray. Bonds often provide support when stocks decline, but “global fixed-income investors have not endured a rout like this since official data began in 1990,” wrote T. Rowe Price’s Quentin Fitzsimmons in May.

The best time to take care of this portfolio management task was yesterday, but with the recent recovery in the market you have another opportunity to limit the damage. Look over your financial goals and whether your portfolio’s current course and speed will get you where you want to go. Make the necessary changes today so that you aren’t scrambling tomorrow.

Given the many moving parts to today’s volatility, assessing your financial plan likely is more complicated than in the past. The many basic financial planning calculators you see all over the internet probably won’t do the job. A more sophisticated program is probably called for here.

There are several good financial planning platforms, but the type I tend to favor is one based on cash flow. This type of program tracks all the dollars coming into a household and matches them against the household’s spending and saving.

A cash flow-based program requires a deep dive into your finances and might take longer to implement than a goals-based one, which tracks only the funds you allocate toward your financial goals.

The results of a cash-flow program might be overly detailed for some people, but in this environment the more details you can track, the better.

Evan R. Guido is the founder of Aksala Wealth Advisors LLC, a 2018 Forbes Next-Gen Advisors List Member, and Financial Professional at Avantax Investment ServicesSM. Evan heads a team of retirement transition strategists for clients who consider themselves the “Millionaire Next Door.” He can be reached at 941-500-5122 or eguido@aksalawealth.com. Read more of his insights at heraldtribune.com/business. Securities offered through Avantax Investment ServicesSM, member FINRA, SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Avantax Advisory ServicesSM, insurance services offered through an Avantax affiliated insurance agency.  6260 Lake Osprey Drive, Lakewood Ranch, FL 34240.

This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: EVAN GUIDO: Time to consider a cash flow-based investment program?

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