Investors in Aemetis (NASDAQ:AMTX) have made a massive return of 861% over the past three years

·3 min read

Some Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMTX) shareholders are probably rather concerned to see the share price fall 43% over the last three months. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been spectacular. Over that time, we've been excited to watch the share price climb an impressive 861%. As long term investors the recent fall doesn't detract all that much from the longer term story. The thing to consider is whether there is still too much elation around the company's prospects. We love happy stories like this one. The company should be really proud of that performance!

So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

Check out our latest analysis for Aemetis

Aemetis wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.

Aemetis' revenue trended up 0.5% each year over three years. Considering the company is losing money, we think that rate of revenue growth is uninspiring. So we're surprised that the share price has soared by 113% each year over that time. A win is a win, even if the revenue growth doesn't really explain it, in our view). Shareholders would want to be sure that the share price rise is sustainable.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. You can see what analysts are predicting for Aemetis in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Aemetis shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 187% over one year. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 45%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Aemetis is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 3 of those are a bit concerning...

But note: Aemetis may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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