How Iowa could spell the end for Ron DeSantis
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In less than two weeks, the Iowa caucuses will serve as the kick-off to 2024 presidential voting.
Barring a seismic polling error, the result could also essentially end Ron DeSantis’ White House run before it can gain steam.
Nowhere has DeSantis invested more time and resources over the last year. He’s campaigned in all 99 counties, secured the backing of Iowa’s governor and its most visible evangelical leader, and touts 30,000 commitments to caucus on his behalf.
So if Florida’s governor can’t come close to Donald Trump and struggles to hold off Nikki Haley in the early primary state that knows him best, he’s unlikely to strike gold anywhere else, say veteran campaign operatives, political observers and former candidates.
“If Desantis is in third his candidacy is over,” says Newt Gingrich, the former House Speaker who ran for the GOP nomination in 2012. “He has to come in ahead of Haley. The media is working to make her the real alternative to Trump.”
Haley allies are furiously attempting to knock DeSantis into third place in Iowa, in order to reframe the race as a clear two-person contest heading into New Hampshire, where the former South Carolina governor is more strongly positioned. Trump’s Iowa lead over both sits at more than 30 points, according to recent polling.
The Haley super PAC — SFA Fund Inc. — has invested north of $10 million on Iowa airwaves over the last three weeks attacking DeSantis and has an additional $3 million reserved for the final two week run-up to Jan. 15.
Yet even if DeSantis bests Haley in Iowa by a handful of points, he will also be measured by his expected deficit to the former president.
One Iowa Republican tapped into multiple campaigns said DeSantis needs to score in the 30s to show life, and that a mid-to-low 20s total would be close to a deathknell. That expectation mirrors the bar set by DeSantis backer Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who has been campaigning with the governor in the early states.
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“If he is completely crushed in Iowa, from his longevity and legacy standpoint it would make sense to reassess moving forward,” said Alice Stewart, who worked on both of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s presidential campaigns.
Part of the intense pressure on Iowa stems from DeSantis’ dismal standing in New Hampshire, where he’s not running TV advertisements and flirting with a fourth place finish, in competition with anti-Trump candidate Chris Christie.
“He’s bet his whole campaign on Iowa. There tends not to be not much knock-on effect between Iowa and New Hampshire. And then you turn to South Carolina,” said Mark Harris, an adviser to Haley’s super PAC. “Short of him winning Iowa or essentially tying with Trump, I don’t know what that pathway is. He needs to fundamentally reset the dynamics of the race … He has no oxygen all the way through Super Tuesday.”
A DeSantis spokesman referenced the candidate’s own comments that he’s in a long-term race to accumulate a majority of delegates. But DeSantis campaign manager James Uthmeier wrote in a November memo that if Trump wins Iowa big, he’ll be difficult to stop.
Even Haley allies still see DeSantis as the favorite for a second place finish in the opening caucus state. But the fact that he’s not being talked about as a threat to Trump there in the homestretch is a product of a uniquely altered political environment and the stability of the candidacy of the former president among Republican voters.
DESANTIS’ IOWA DREAMS
Iowa Republicans say DeSantis and his super PAC, Never Back Down, initially did many of the right things to put themselves in a position for a victory.
Josie Albrecht, a Republican activist who is publicly neutral due to her work for the state party, said the DeSantis campaign has hit her door five times — far more than Haley or even Trump. She’s heard anecdotes about his apparatus and Never Back Down staffers appearing in far-flung driveways down long, barely traveled gravel roads.
But she said a supercharged field game is insufficient if the product they are pitching is shaky.
“You can have a gazillion door knockers you’re paying money, but if the candidate isn’t catching on …,” Albrecht said before allowing her thought to trail off. “That’s any race — from mayor to president.”
Other Iowa GOPers note that traditional benchmarks the DeSantis campaign is touting matter to media more than voters who can expect to see every candidate in-person and even meet and shake their hand. Hitting all 99 counties snags nice headlines, but getting to tiny enclaves with few caucus-goers sucks up precious travel time. Bob Vander Plaats of The Family Leader, who endorsed DeSantis in November, is a natural go-to for journalists looking for insights on Christian conservatives, but some argue he wields less influence than he did a decade ago due to competition from conservative voices with bigger megaphones.
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Trump’s allies in the state also worked to restrict Never Back Down’s reach, barring them from speaking at certain GOP meetings and restricting their access to party events. Some say those tactics created the illusion the super PAC was acting nefariously, but it’s also a consequence of how heavily DeSantis’ campaign relied on an outside group that is forced to play by different rules.
And, perhaps most significantly, there’s Trump’s enduring political strength over DeSantis, who took time to grow comfortable as a candidate.
Responding to an array of criminal prosecutions against Trump, Republicans not only rallied to the former president, they saw general election polling showing him to be the favorite against President Joe Biden next November, undercutting DeSantis’ case for greater electability.
“There is no clear path for Gov. DeSantis to win the nomination,” said Ed Brookover, who worked for Ben Carson and Trump’s presidential campaigns. “Even if he surprises in Iowa, he is not positioned to defeat President Trump.”
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NOT IF, BUT WHEN
Arguably, even more difficult than the decision to run for president is choosing when to stop.
But if DeSantis loses both Iowa and New Hampshire by massive percentages, as polling indicates he will, he’ll quickly face the question of what he has to gain from further thumpings on more difficult political terrain.
It’s an extremely personal decision that will be influenced by his wife, his pollster and his financiers.
At just 45 years old, DeSantis is a full three decades younger than Trump and will remain the governor of Florida through 2027. While a DeSantis 2028 bid would likely be greeted with genuine skepticism and greater competition, another try for the White House when there’s no incumbent running is not out of the cards.
“All these candidates should think, how is this going to impact my legacy? Do I want to be the spoiler or do I want to read the writing on the wall?,” said Stewart.
Mending the relationship with Trump looks far-fetched in the moment, but a rapprochement wouldn’t be unprecedented for a former president who now counts a handful of his 2016 rivals as his most fervent allies.
To some, it’s less a question of if DeSantis will bow out and get behind Trump than when.
“The Republican presidential primary will officially begin in Iowa in two weeks. But unofficially, it may also end there,” wrote G. Elliot Morris, who conducts predictive analysis on political polling, noting that his models have become even more confident of a Trump victory there.
