Iowa Poll: Gov. Kim Reynolds has a 17-point lead over Deidre DeJear in governor’s race

© Copyright 2022, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.

Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds has entered the final weekend before Election Day with a 17 percentage point lead over her Democratic challenger, Deidre DeJear.

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll found 54% of Iowans who either say they will definitely vote or have already voted support the Republican governor. Thirty-seven percent say they support DeJear, and 4% say they plan to vote for Libertarian Rick Stewart.

Another 3% say they are not sure which candidate they will vote for or do not remember whom they voted for. And 1% said they would vote for someone else, while 1% say they have already voted and do not want to say how.

The poll, conducted Oct. 31 through Nov. 3 by Selzer & Co., surveyed 801 likely Iowa voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The new poll comes as Reynolds and DeJear have been circling the state in the final weeks before the election to make their closing pitches to Iowa voters, often appearing with other candidates from their parties.

Reynolds, who is seeking her second full term in office, is crisscrossing the state on a two-week bus tour ahead of the election and appeared at a Sioux City rally Thursday night with former Republican president Donald Trump.

DeJear has also been traveling and appeared at an event with Doug Emhoff, the husband of Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, on Friday.

Reynolds has led in both polling and fundraising from the outset of the race. From January of this year through Oct. 14, Reynolds has raised more than double what DeJear has. The governor has hauled in nearly $4.3 million while DeJear has raised nearly $1.9 million.

The lead has allowed Reynolds to outspend DeJear on advertising, as well as contribute funding to the state party to assist down-ballot candidates.

An Oct. 9-12 Iowa Poll also showed Reynolds with a 17-point advantage over DeJear. The same October poll showed DeJear was struggling with name recognition. Fewer than half of Iowans knew enough about DeJear to form an opinion of her, while 97% of Iowans had an opinion of Reynolds.

A July Iowa Poll also showed Reynolds’ lead was 17 points over DeJear — 48% to 31%

The latest poll did not measure favorability.

Reynolds leads among independents

Reynolds dominates the Republican vote in Iowa, earning 97%, while DeJear secures 94% of the Democratic vote.

But Reynolds holds a double-digit lead among independents, with 48% to DeJear’s 32%. Nine percent of independents support Stewart.

Among independent supporters is 33-year-old poll respondent Alejandro Munoz, a property manager living in West Des Moines.

Munoz said he researched Reynolds, DeJear and Stewart before deciding the current governor best aligned with his beliefs. He said he is impressed by Reynolds’ handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and her record on government spending and oversight.

“I also feel like she's a fighter,” Munoz said. “I mean, to get to her position — especially being a woman and all that kind of stuff — I think that shows grit, determination.”

He called DeJear and Stewart “competent” but said their views and records did not align as well with his beliefs. He plans to vote for a mix of Republicans and Democrats.

“I felt like having kind of checks and balances in some respect, having a good healthy mix between Republicans and Democrats in our state, would be healthy for us,” Munoz said, “just to kind of force compromise, force us to meet down the middle."

Reynolds’ support is strongest among evangelical Christians, who support her by a margin of 78% to 11% for DeJear; rural dwellers, 69% to 22%; residents of the 4^th Congressional District in northwest Iowa, 64% to 27% margin; and men, 60% to 29%.

More:Where Deidre DeJear, Rick Stewart & Kim Reynolds stand on key issues in Iowa governor race

Women are closely divided in the race, favoring Reynolds over DeJear 47% to 46%.

City dwellers and suburbanites more likely to support DeJear

DeJear performs strongest among likely Iowa voters with no religious affiliation, earning 69% to Reynolds’ 22%; among suburban voters, 51% to 41%; and among city dwellers, 50% to 46%.

One of DeJear’s supporters is 81-year-old poll respondent Barbara Cunningham, a retired high school teacher from Shenandoah, who said she has already cast her ballot by mail.

More:Who's on my ballot in the Iowa 2022 midterm election?

Cunningham said support for public schooling is the most important issue for her in the governor’s race this year and was the deciding factor in her vote for DeJear.

“What I like about her is she’s pro-education,” Cunningham said. “I don’t feel that our current governor is doing that.”

Cunningham noted Reynolds has signed increases of 2.5% or below in per-pupil school aid over the last few years, and she disagrees with the governor's proposal to use public funding to provide scholarships to help parents switch their children to private schools or homeschooling.

She said even though she believes Reynolds will win the election, she doesn’t support her policies.

DeJear has made education a focal point, saying she would seek to raise year-over-year investment in Iowa schools by a minimum of 4% annually. She also has vowed to veto Reynolds’ private school scholarship proposal if it reached her desk while she was governor.

DeJear leads Reynolds among Iowans who have already voted by a 57% to 35% margin. However, that subsection includes only 22% of all likely voters, and Democrats are more likely to say they have already voted.

The Des Moines Register’s Samantha Hernandez contributed to this report.

Ian Richardson covers the Iowa Statehouse for the Des Moines Register. Reach him at irichardson@registermedia.com, at 515-284-8254, or on Twitter at @DMRIanR.

About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted October 31-November 3, 2022, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 801 Iowans ages 18 or older who say they will definitely vote or have already voted in the 2022 general election for governor, U.S. Senate, and other offices.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 1,118 Iowa adults with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data.

Questions based on the sample of 801 Iowa likely voters have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.

Iowa Poll methodology

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Gov. Kim Reynolds keeps lead over Deidre DeJear as Election Day nears