Iowa Poll: Majority say Trump is best candidate to handle Israel war. Haley comes second

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A majority of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers say former President Donald Trump is the candidate they believe would do the best job of handling the Israel-Hamas war.

In a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll, 52% of likely GOP caucusgoers name Trump as the candidate who would do the best job of handling the conflict, followed by former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley at 22%.

The poll of 404 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Oct. 22-26 by Selzer & Co. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

More likely Republican caucusgoers think Trump and Haley would do the best job of handing the Israel-Hamas war than pick them as their first choice for president.

The conflict began Oct. 7 when Hamas launched a series of attacks on Israel, killing more than 1,400 people and taking more than 200 hostages.

Israel has launched a series of airstrikes in response, which have killed more than 8,000 as of Sunday, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, run by Hamas. Over the weekend, Israel expanded its ground invasion of Gaza.

Stephen Thomsen, a 65-year-old Republican poll respondent from Hiawatha, said Trump’s record as president shows his ability to handle the challenge.

“He’s proven it,” he said.

‘He’s already shown he’s strongly behind Israel,’ caucusgoer says of Donald Trump

While 43% of likely Republican caucusgoers name Trump as their first choice for president, 52% see him as best to handle the war.

Trump’s record on Israel as president included moving the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem; helping broker the Abraham Accords, which normalized diplomatic relations between Israel and several Middle Eastern countries; and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which the international community considers occupied Syrian territory.

Thomsen pointed to that record in explaining his support for Trump’s ability to handle the war.

“He’s already shown he’s strongly behind Israel, which I am,” said Thomsen, an evangelical Christian who works in the aerospace industry. “He’s the only president that moved the embassy to Jerusalem, things like that, and then worked pretty hard at Israeli-Arab relations when he was the president.”

Trump has promised to reinstate his administration’s controversial travel ban on predominantly Muslim nations and broaden it to ban refugees from Gaza.

He told Iowans in Cedar Rapids in October that the wars in Israel and in Ukraine “would not have happened” under his watch.

“We are closer to World War III than we’ve ever been,” he said. “And I’m the only one that will prevent World War III.”

Trump drew criticism from his rivals after the war began by bashing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying Netanyahu “let us down” when it came to helping the United States with an operation that killed Iranian military leader Qasem Soleimani in 2020.

Trump later walked back the criticism.

Thomsen said he heard a little bit about Trump’s comments. Although he said, “I think I can tell his heart,” he added that Trump sometimes says things Thomsen can’t agree with.

“Really that was my real problem with him as president was just flying off saying things when it didn’t seem like he’s really thought them through,” he said of Trump. “And maybe he had, but it seemed like he was shoot, ready, aim sometimes.”

Nikki Haley outperforms her overall support when it comes to handling Israel-Hamas war

Haley is likely caucusgoers’ second choice to handle the conflict, with 22% saying she would do the best job.

Haley has leaned into her foreign policy experience on the campaign trail and has urged Israel to wipe out Hamas. At a town hall at Central College, she recounted telling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “finish them.”

On this question, Haley outperforms her overall support. While 16% say she is their first choice for president, 22% say she would do the best job handling the war.

The vast majority of Haley supporters (86%) say she is the candidate who would do the best job handling the war.

“This seems part of the key to understanding her rise in this poll — the world stage calls her name,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co.

In an August Iowa Poll, Haley was picked as the first choice for president by just 6% of likely caucusgoers. Her 10-percentage-point rise from August to October was the largest of any candidate.

“I really liked her foreign affairs knowledge and I’m really impressed with that,” said Laurie Lee, a 65-year-old poll respondent from Titonka who plans to caucus for Haley. “And I think we really need someone that has the knowledge and the skills to be able to understand other foreign governments.”

Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis have been adamant that they will not accept Gazan refugees and have sparred over the issue.

After DeSantis suggested Haley had said she would accept Gazan refugees into the United States, SFA Fund, the super PAC supporting Haley, released an ad that begins with a narrator saying, “Poor Ron DeSantis. He’s losing. He’s lying.”

Haley has said other Middle Eastern countries should take in refugees from Gaza.

Although Thomsen picked Trump as the candidate best able to handle the war, he also had praise for Haley.

“Truthfully, honestly, I think Nikki Haley would do a great job on foreign policy as well,” he said. “I mean she’s probably got the most experience of anybody, other than Trump, in the field.”

Ron DeSantis, other candidates underperform

DeSantis is named by 9% as the candidate who would do the best job handling the war, a number that falls below the 16% who pick him as their first choice for president.

Just 34% of DeSantis’ own supporters say he would be best at handling the war, while 32% of his supporters say Trump would be best, and 18% name Haley.

Kenneth Kennedy, a 67-year-old Republican poll respondent from Keosauqua, named DeSantis as his first choice for president and Haley as his second choice. But the retired farmer said Haley would do the best job handling the war.

“Well, she was an ambassador, and he was a governor, so I just figure she’s kind of used to dealing with foreign policy,” he said.

Still, Kennedy said DeSantis “would probably do all right.”

“He’d do better than the guy who’s doing it now,” he said.

Three percent say entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy would do the best job handling the war. Ramaswamy has received criticism for his comments on Israel, in part for his stance that new U.S. aid to the country should be contingent on Israel providing a clear outline of its military objectives.

Another 2% pick former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and 2% name U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina.

Five percent say someone else would do the best job — a number that includes those who originally chose former Vice President Mike Pence before he dropped out of the race Saturday. Four percent say they are not sure.

Stephen Gruber-Miller covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. He can be reached by email at sgrubermil@registermedia.com or by phone at 515-284-8169. Follow him on Twitter at @sgrubermiller.

About the Iowa Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 22-26, 2023, for The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 404 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2024 Republican caucuses.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 3,028 randomly selected voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect their proportions among voters in the list.

Questions based on the sample of 404 voters likely to attend the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, NBC News, and Mediacom is prohibited.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Trump, Haley would be best to handle Israel-Hamas war, Iowa Poll finds