Iowa Poll: Most likely Republican caucusgoers disagree with Trump’s 6-week abortion ban comment

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Former president Donald Trump holds a commanding lead among likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa, even though most Iowa Republicans disagree with his comment that a six-week abortion ban is “a terrible mistake.”

In a September “Meet the Press” interview, Trump said a Florida law, signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis, that bans nearly all abortions after six weeks of pregnancy was “a terrible thing and a terrible mistake.”

Iowa lawmakers passed a similar six-week ban earlier this year, although it has been temporarily blocked from taking effect during a legal challenge.

A Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll asked likely Republican caucusgoers whether they agreed with Trump that a six-week abortion ban is a terrible mistake. A majority, 52%, disagree with Trump.  About one in three, 36%, agree. Twelve percent aren’t sure.

Even many of Trump’s supporters aren’t aligned with him on the issue: Among Republicans who say Trump is their first choice, just 40% agree that a six-week ban is a mistake.

The Oct. 22-26 poll of 404 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2024 Republican caucuses was conducted by Selzer & Co. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Trump supporters say they’re willing to overlook abortion comments

Forty-one percent of likely Republican caucusgoers say abortion restrictions are an extremely important issue as they evaluate which candidate to support. Another 38% say the issue is important.

But follow-up interviews with poll respondents reveal a willingness to overlook Trump’s comment on the six-week ban.

Poll respondent Kimberly Shady, a retail employee living in Clinton, fondly recalls Trump’s first term.

“His policies work, and we felt safe the whole four years he was in office,” said Shady, 61, in a follow-up interview with the Des Moines Register. “He’s done what he said he was going to do.”

But Shady is also a firm believer that abortions should be illegal after cardiac activity is detected in an embryo, which happens at about six weeks of pregnancy.

“When there's a heartbeat, that is a living being,” Shady said.

When asked about the disconnect between Trump’s stance on abortion and her own, Shady replied, “Everybody has a right to their own beliefs.” She still plans to caucus for Trump next year.

Poll respondent Levi Wielenga, a 39-year-old trucker from Sioux City, is another staunch Trump supporter who disagrees with the “terrible mistake” comment. Wielenga said he hadn’t seen the context for Trump’s statement, but he speculated it was meant primarily as an attack on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

“I don't think he really means that,” Wielenga said. “I think (Trump) just gets so blinded by his inability to decipher issues versus people, or sin versus sinner. Anything Ron (DeSantis) does is evil and bad, you know?”

Wielenga said he wants state governments to decide abortion laws without federal interference.

On the other end of the spectrum are poll respondents such as Cammie Pohl, a 54-year-old tour manager from Davenport.

Pohl’s top priority for 2024 is preventing Trump from becoming the party’s nominee. She was “very disappointed” that Trump did not accept that he lost the 2020 election, and she said Trump is not a good representative for the party.

But Pohl, a self-described moderate Republican, said she opposes laws “against women’s bodies” — and she agrees with Trump’s dismissal of a six-week ban.

“I definitely agree with that. It is a terrible mistake,” Pohl said. “Women are not just willy-nilly going out and having abortions because they are fun. If you ask anybody that has to make that decision, it's quite a difficult decision.”

Even so, it’s not enough to make Pohl a Trump supporter. She plans to caucus for former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson or South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

And if Trump becomes the nominee, Pohl said, “I guess I’ll be voting for Biden.”

What is Donald Trump’s stance on abortion?

On “Meet the Press,” Trump avoided giving specific answers about his plans for abortion.

He said he would find an abortion limit that everyone could agree on — but he wouldn’t say whether he would support a federal abortion ban after 15 weeks, as some Republicans have proposed.

“I think they’re all going to like me. I think both sides are going to like me,” Trump said.

On the campaign trail, Trump has called himself “the most pro-life president” in history after appointing three conservative Supreme Court justices who ultimately rejected the constitutional right to an abortion that America lived by for decades.

But Trump also stated that abortion can be a losing issue for Republicans .

"This issue cost us unnecessarily but dearly in the midterms,” Trump said at a September campaign event in Dubuque. "It cost us dearly, really, and unnecessarily."

Republican primary opponents have targeted Trump for his lukewarm stance on abortion. A pro-DeSantis PAC launched an Iowa ad campaign Monday focused on Trump’s dismissal of a six-week ban. Scott told Iowans that he would back a 15-week ban federally, while Trump would “walk back away.”

Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds defended Iowa’s abortion law on social media, writing: “It’s never a ‘terrible thing’ to protect innocent life."

Brianne Pfannenstiel and Galen Bacharier contributed to this story.

Katie Akin is a politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at kakin@registermedia.com. Follow her on Twitter at @katie_akin.

About the Iowa Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 22-26, 2023, for The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 404 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2024 Republican caucuses.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 3,028 randomly selected voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect their proportions among voters in the list.

Questions based on the sample of 404 voters likely to attend the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom is prohibited.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Most likely GOP caucusgoers split with Trump over abortion ban comment