Iowa Poll: Nearly half of likely GOP caucusgoers consider themselves 'MAGA Republicans'

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Nearly half of Iowa’s likely Republican caucusgoers describe themselves as MAGA Republicans, an indication of how entrenched former President Donald Trump’s influence has become in the first-in-the-nation caucus state.

According to a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll, 46% of Iowans who plan to caucus for Republicans Jan. 15 say they consider themselves “MAGA Republicans” — a reference to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” campaign slogan, which has become ubiquitous across Republican politics.

At the same time, 23% of poll respondents describe themselves as “anti-Trump,” indicating that roughly a quarter of Iowa’s likely Republican caucusgoers have ruled out supporting the former president.

The poll results provide insight into the makeup of Iowa’s caucus electorate ahead of a consequential 2024 contest that will help shape the direction of the Republican Party.

For now, Trump retains a strong hold on the state, the poll shows, and some political observers say a decisive win in January could help cement his status as the likely Republican presidential nominee.

The 46% of likely GOP caucusgoers who describe themselves as MAGA Republicans parallel the 42% of poll respondents who name Trump as their first choice for president.

The former president leads his closest challenger, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, by 23 percentage points. DeSantis is at 19% and U.S. Sen. Tim Scott follows with 9%.

Rob Roben, a 76-year-old Bellevue resident and poll respondent, said he considers himself a MAGA Republican and says Trump is his first choice for president, though he’s open to other options.

He’s also interested in Scott, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and “the guy with the funny name,” entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.

Roben said he liked Trump’s “tough” approach to immigration and foreign policy, and he has come to associate that “America first” approach with the MAGA brand.

“America comes first. That's MAGA,” Roben said. “We are first. It isn't China. It isn't Russia. It isn't whatever. It's not Mexico. The United States comes first in my book. I'm a patriot. That's part of what MAGA is — a big part of what MAGA is. You love your country. You want to do everything you can do for this country and for the people in it. We don't need to be sharing our wealth until our bills are paid — which, our bills are far from being paid.”

Among those who say Trump is their first choice for president, 72% describe themselves as MAGA Republicans. And among those who say DeSantis is their top choice, it’s 37%.

The poll of 406 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Aug. 13 through 17 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Nearly a quarter of likely GOP caucusgoers say they are ‘anti-Trump'

Overall, 23% say they are anti-Trump. It’s slightly higher among those who say DeSantis is their first choice for president, with 27% saying they are anti-Trump.

Jason Brown, a 51-year-old Norwalk resident and poll respondent, said he considers himself “anti-Trump,” calling the former president “angry, vengeful, vindictive (and) radically self-centered.”

“There's no way we'd even hire him at the business I work at,” he said. “Anyone who showed up like he shows up in life, they wouldn't even make it to an interview. And it wouldn't even matter how successful they are in life because, you know, our first sort of hurdle to get through is kind of like: How do you treat other human beings? How do you show up relationally?”

Brown, an independent voter, names former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie as his first choice for president, though he’s open to others who “have the courage to say, ‘You know what? What (Trump) did was wrong.’”

He said if Trump does get the Republican nomination, he would choose to vote for Democratic President Joe Biden in the general election.

Brown is among the 57% of likely caucusgoers who describe themselves as “moderate.”

Seventy-one percent describe themselves as “traditional conservatives.” Poll respondents were allowed to choose multiple characteristics.

DeSantis supporters are more likely to describe themselves as moderate, 60%,  compared with 46% of Trump supporters.

Eighty-five percent of DeSantis supporters describe themselves as “traditional conservatives,” and 79% of Trump supporters say the same.

Likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers are pro-life, capitalist, anti-woke

A substantial majority — 80% — of Iowa’s likely Republican caucusgoers identify as “pro-life.”

Those beliefs are reflected in their support of Iowa’s six-week “fetal heartbeat” abortion ban. Fifty-eight percent of poll respondents say that law “gets it about right,” while 30% say it imposes too many restrictions. Nine percent say the law has too few restrictions.

Likely Republican caucusgoers also painted a picture of a group dissatisfied with government and political institutions.

Seventy-seven percent each say they are “afraid for the Constitution” and “disgruntled with government.”

About seven in 10, 71%, say they are “exhausted by politics.”

Majorities of Iowa’s likely Republican caucusgoers also describe themselves as capitalists (68%), anti-woke (67%) and gun enthusiasts (59%).

Fifty-five percent describe themselves as being “devoutly religious.” Evangelicals have traditionally proven to be a critical group that can unite to help push candidates across the caucus finish line.

Other than the 23% who describe themselves as “anti-Trump,” the least popular of the 13 descriptions offered was 38% who say they are “feeling passed over.”

Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.

About the Iowa Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Aug. 13-17, 2023, for The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 406 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2024 Republican caucuses.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 2,953 randomly selected voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect their proportions among voters in the list.

Questions based on the sample of 406 voters likely to attend the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom is prohibited.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Nearly half of likely GOP caucusgoers are 'MAGA', Iowa Poll shows