Iowa Poll: Sen. Joni Ernst’s job approval rating ticks up, despite conservative pushback

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Ron Dickerson stepped up to the microphone at a recent meeting of the Dallas County Republican Party to demand answers from U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst for a series of votes she took late last year that have troubled some Republicans across the state.

Dickerson wanted to know why Ernst voted for the Respect for Marriage Act, “which many feel directly went against the platform of the Iowa Republican” Party.

He wanted to know why she supported sending additional money to Ukraine “when our own southern border is being invaded.”

And he wanted to know why she voted for the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, which he worried had “triggered red flag laws” that might impinge on 2^nd Amendment rights.

All of it has earned her a D rating from the Conservative Review’s Liberty Score, which tracks congressional members’ votes.

“The question is, ma'am, how do you rank the importance of the priorities of your constituents when deciding how to vote on a bill?” Dickerson concluded.

More: Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst defends gay-marriage vote as GOP county groups move to censure her

The exchange encapsulated the surge of conservative angst that has bubbled up across the state in the wake of those votes, dogging Ernst at events and triggering more than a dozen votes of condemnation or censure by local GOP chapters across the state.

Despite those broad shows of frustration, Ernst’s job approval rating has actually ticked up since last year, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows, suggesting the backlash is contained to a relatively small but passionate minority.

Even so, Ernst’s approval ratings and favorability numbers lag those of her Republican colleagues, U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley and Gov. Kim Reynolds, among several key constituencies.

Kelley Koch, chair of the Dallas County Republican Party, said Ernst’s votes on marriage and gun laws were “very tense, heated issues” for her members last fall.

She invited Ernst to speak at one of the party’s meetings in January to address members’ concerns directly — a meeting that was, at times, combative. But Dallas has not been among the county parties to approve any kind of formal reprimand.

“People are now looking more forward to presidential (politics) and maybe not so much backward,” Koch said. “I don't think they'll forget (these votes). But I think the emphasis is now focused on Joe Biden and the White House.”

Dickerson told the Register he would support a primary opponent running against Ernst in 2026.

“I don't have any feeling one way or another towards Joni Ernst, other than the fact that I feel that she has let conservatives down over the last year and a half,” he said.

More: 18 GOP senators helped pass a $1.7 trillion spending plan. Why Grassley and Ernst voted no

Sen. Joni Ernst’s job approval ticks up, even as GOP county parties condemn her marriage vote

Since October, Ernst’s approval rating has ticked up by 3 percentage points.

Now, 47% of Iowans approve of Ernst’s job performance — up from 44%. And 39% now disapprove — down from 45% last year.

Another 15% are not sure.

Selzer & Co. of Des Moines conducted the poll of 805 Iowa adults March 5-8. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

“Being a conservative myself, I like her values,” said John Zobeck, a 60-year-old Adel resident and poll respondent. “And the laws that she votes on and stuff align with my family and my family's values.”

Although Zobeck said he disagreed with Ernst’s same-sex marriage vote, he still broadly approves of the job she’s doing in Congress.

“I think overall, when you take the whole spectrum of her voting record and what she stands for, I think overall she's doing a good job,” he said.

The rise in approval stands in contrast to the shows of dissatisfaction from some members of the party that followed Ernst’s vote for the Respect for Marriage Act last November.

Ernst was one of 12 Republicans to join with Democrats in voting for the legislation, which requires states without marriage equality laws to recognize same-sex marriages from other states. It does not codify the right to same-sex marriage in federal law, and it includes protections for religious institutions.

Grassley opposed the bill.

Since then, at least 17 county parties have voted to condemn or censure Ernst over the vote. Page County Republicans this month called for her resignation and promised to oppose her in a primary if she does not step down.

“I would say that those two votes, in particular, have bothered a lot of people that have supported her in the past, and they are hoping that she will find her way back to the GOP policies of Iowa,” Page County Republican Party Chair Bryan Whipp said.

The state party platform says marriage is between a man and a woman, and it says the party supports public policy that reflects that belief.

Whipp said the Page County vote is intended to communicate members’ frustration to Ernst, since she is not up for reelection for several more years.

“I think it's basically a wakeup call that we would like to see some more conservative viewpoints coming from our senator,” he said.

Ernst has repeatedly defended the vote.

"I don't agree with the censure," she told reporters in December. "But I will say that I stand by my vote, and I hope that more people will actually read the bill and understand we have just improved upon religious liberty protections, not just in Iowa, but across the United States."

She’s downplayed the effects it will have on Iowa, where gay marriage has been legal since a 2009 state Supreme Court case established marriage equality.

“It does not require a state to provide for same-sex marriage, and it does not provide a federal right of same-sex marriage,” she said in Dallas County. “That is state law.”

More: For first time in decades Iowa has an all-Republican congressional delegation. Here's what they want to do

Ernst has been gaining ground among Republicans since a July 2022 dip in approval

According to the Iowa Poll, Ernst experienced some choppy waters with Republicans in July 2022, just after she voted for the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act — the most significant gun control bill in decades.

The legislation provides incentives to states that adopt red flag laws, which allow authorities or family members to petition the court to have guns taken away from someone who they believe represents an imminent danger. Many Republicans view such laws as an infringement on Americans’ Second Amendment rights.

The legislation does not require states to adopt red flag laws. For states that don’t have them, the funding can be used for other crisis-intervention programs.

Grassley opposed the bill, citing concerns about due process.

Ernst defended that vote in the Dallas County GOP meeting, calling it a "states’ rights bill" that allows states to make their own decisions. Iowa, she said, would likely never enact red flag laws, and the bill does not create them.

In the July 2022 poll, just after that vote, Ernst’s approval rating among Republicans was 70%, dropping from 77% in March of that year.

But she’s been gaining ground back.

In October 2022, her approval rating among Republicans rose to 73% and today it’s up to 75%.

Her approval rating among evangelical voters is also trending upward. In July 2022, 57% of evangelicals approved of Ernst’s job performance. That rose to 62% in October 2022 and to 64% today.

In July 2022, 15% of Democrats approved. That dropped to 12% in October and has now bounced back even higher at 19%.

Among independent voters, Ernst appears to be holding steady.

In July 2022, 40% approved of her job performance. That rose to 42% in October 2022 and returned to 40% now.

Jerry Hale, a 72-year-old Sioux City resident and poll respondent, said he has previously been a fan of Ernst but now counts himself among those who disapprove of her job performance. He often thinks of himself as an independent, though he tends to vote for Republicans.

“I think she waffles on a lot of the issues, and I don't think she's a real dyed-in-the-wool conservative,” Hale said of Ernst.

He said it bothers him “a lot” to see Ernst, who is a member of the GOP Senate leadership team, standing behind Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell at news conferences.

“She seems to follow the lead of … Minority Leader Mitch McConnell down to a T,” he said. “And McConnell definitely doesn't have our best interests at heart.”

Ernst underperforms other Iowa Republicans among GOP base

Even as Ernst is gaining back support, she underperforms both Grassley and Reynolds with Republicans and Evangelicals.

Ernst’s 75% approval rating among Republicans is 6 percentage points lower than Grassley’s 81% approval rating, and it’s 11 percentage points lower than Reynolds’ 86%.

Ernst earns a 64% approval rating with evangelicals — 11 percentage points short of the 75% that both Grassley and Reynolds achieve.

Among Republicans, she is viewed favorably by 71% — down from 75% last October. That number also lags Grassley, who is viewed favorably by 80% of Iowa Republicans, and Reynolds, who is viewed favorably by 87%.

Among all Iowans, Ernst is viewed favorably by 45% — a number that is unchanged since October. She is viewed unfavorably by 44%, down from 45%.

Sen. Chuck Grassley’s approval rating back above water

Grassley saw his worst showing in an Iowa Poll last October, with more Iowans disapproving of his performance than approving. According to that poll, 44% approved while 48% disapproved.

Now, he’s reversed those numbers with 49% approving and 41% disapproving.

Grassley was in the midst of a relatively tough reelection battle last fall. Though he easily won a primary, Republican state Sen. Jim Carlin won more than a quarter of the vote by arguing he was more conservative on issues like the border and the Second Amendment.

Many Iowa Republicans also expressed concerns about Grassley, at 89, seeking an eighth term in office, the Iowa Poll showed.

Grassley ultimately defeated Democrat Mike Franken by a comfortable 12 percentage points, though it was still his closest margin in decades.

FAQs: How is the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted? We answer your top questions.

With the 118^th Congress well underway, Grassley’s approval ratings have bounced back among several demographics.

Among Republicans, 81% approve — better than the 77% who approved in October.

Independent Iowans are now evenly split with 45% approving and 45% disapproving. In October, 36% approved while 52% disapproved.

The share of evangelical Iowans who approve of Grassley’s job performance has risen from 65% to 75%, and the share of Iowans living in northwest Iowa’s conservative 4^th Congressional District who approve has risen from 51% to 64%.

Today, Grassley is viewed favorably by 51% of Iowans and unfavorably by 41%. He was at 47%-46% in October.

Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.

About the Iowa Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted March 5-8, 2023, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 805 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent American Community Survey estimates.

Questions based on the sample of 805 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.

Iowa Poll methodology

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa Poll: Sens. Joni Ernst, Chuck Grassley approval ratings improve