Iowa Poll shows Mike Franken within striking distance of Sen. Chuck Grassley. Could he really win?

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Mike Franken has less than three weeks to do what no one has been able to accomplish in 64 years: defeat Chuck Grassley.

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows he’s within striking distance. Grassley leads by 3 percentage points among likely voters.

“We are right on the cusp, and he knows that,” Franken said of his opponent.

With early voting already underway, Franken is in a stronger position than Democrats could have hoped as he fights to defeat Iowa’s seven-term Republican incumbent.

But holding Grassley to his closest reelection fight in decades is a moral victory. It won’t help Democrats retain control of the U.S. Senate, which they currently hold by the slimmest of margins.

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To win, Franken will need to energize his base, continue converting independents and capitalize on his strong fundraising, political experts told the Des Moines Register.

Meanwhile, Republicans are working to undermine some of Franken’s perceived strengths, including his military record, while highlighting an allegation that he assaulted a former campaign staffer with an unwanted kiss. Law enforcement officials declared the allegation unfounded.

Election analysts are still betting on Grassley, citing the national political climate, his long incumbency and Iowa’s recent shift to the right. They expect him to hold onto his seat for an eighth term.

“Do I think that Chuck Grassley is in serious danger of losing? No, I don’t,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan elections forecaster. “But I also think we’ve seen enough in this race to look at it as maybe being in a different category than … some of the other races in the ‘safe Republican’ column.”

In the wake of the recent Iowa Poll, Sabato’s Crystal Ball is among a handful of election forecasting groups to downgrade Grassley’s chances of winning from a “safe” or “solid” bet to a “likely” one.

It’s a small shift, but even the perception that the race is winnable is critical for Democrats up and down the ballot, some Iowa political operatives say.

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Mike Franken’s military record seen as an asset on the campaign trail

Franken’s baseball cap, with “NAVY” printed in bold letters, is a nearly constant part of his wardrobe, both on the campaign trail and in advertisements.

In his campaign, the retired three-star U.S. Navy admiral has frequently emphasized his military service.

Franken has held a variety of roles in Washington, including as the first military officer on U.S. Sen. Ted Kennedy’s staff, at the U.S. Department of Defense and as chief of legislative affairs for the Navy.

Matt Paul, an Iowa Democratic operative, said Franken’s military service bolsters his credentials with Iowans, including swing voters.

“The fact that he was a three-star admiral, I think, carries a lot of weight with a lot of Iowans who truly might be swing voters,” he said.

The Iowa Poll, which was conducted by Selzer & Co., shows likely voters are reacting favorably to that part of his biography. Fifty-two percent say Franken’s military career spent outside the state would be an asset to Iowa. That includes 84% of Democrats, 55% of independents and 25% of Republicans.

One of those Iowans is David Wolfkill, a 67-year-old poll respondent from Des Moines who has voted for Grassley in the past but plans to support Franken this year.

“I think part of it (is) his military background,” said Wolfkill, a political independent who works as a retail manager. “And he seems sincere about trying to fix things and get back to more of maybe the older style of governing and get away from some of all of this crazy stuff that’s been going on.”

The Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 9-12, included 620 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

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Republicans question Franken’s record on sexual assault in the military

Republicans have questioned aspects of Franken’s military record, including accusing him of not taking instances of military sexual misconduct seriously.

A 2021 investigation by the Intercept, a left-leaning online publication, found 158 instances of sexual crimes involving U.S. military personnel in Africa between 2010 and 2020 — more than double the official Pentagon total of 73. Franken served as the deputy for military operations for U.S. Africa Command from 2015 to 2017.

Kollin Crompton, communications director for the Republican Party of Iowa, shared the article in a news release on Oct. 10.

"Mike Franken needs to tell Iowans what involvement he had in the underreporting of sexual misconduct under his watch," Crompton said in a statement.

Franken said on Oct. 13 that he didn’t know about the specifics raised in the Intercept report but praised the Navy’s training program and its work to eliminate instances of sexual misconduct.

“We’ve got an extensive training program,” Franken said. “And, matter of fact, oftentimes people complain how much time we spend on this, but it’s actually good time because it says we treat everybody equal.”

Franken faced an allegation from a former campaign staffer that he kissed her on the mouth without her consent earlier this year. The former staffer filed a report with the Des Moines Police Department in April, but the case was closed and no charges were filed.

Franken has denied the accusation and said Republicans are raising the issue only for their political advantage.

“I used to talk to every person who served under me and say, ‘These are the standards. We’ve got zero tolerance. Zero,’” Franken said of his time in the military. “What’s happening, though, with this most recent article that they bring forward from the Intercept is a politicalization of something that they’re trying to highlight because they have no other way to come after me.”

Iowa Poll:Chuck Grassley narrowly leads Mike Franken in US Senate race

National Democrats haven’t invested in Iowa, although race forecasters are changing their ratings

Iowa Democrats’ enthusiasm around the Senate race is tempered by the realities of past elections.

The 2020 U.S. Senate race looked competitive throughout the election cycle, and Democrats poured tens of millions of dollars into their efforts to topple Republican Sen. Joni Ernst. But Democrat Theresa Greenfield lost by 7 percentage points — one of several stinging losses that year.

As a result, Iowa Democrats knew going into 2022 that fundraising would likely be a struggle.

National Democrats have shown no desire to spend money supporting Franken, instead focusing on states where they see a greater chance of victory.

Franken has acknowledged the lack of support. But on Oct. 13, before the latest Iowa Poll was released, he suggested things would change if the race appeared to tighten.

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“Iowa’s been a disappointment for the national party and, consequently, they’re reticent to put money in here,” he said. “But when we see the polls dictate something a bit different, I think you’re going to see a big difference.”

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee did not return a request for comment.

According to AdImpact, a data analytics firm, none of the groups aligned with national Democrats or Republicans have made new ad buys in the state following the release of the poll.

Franken has also defended his own campaign’s success in fundraising. The most recent fundraising reports show Franken has outraised and outspent Grassley in the most recent quarter.

Franken raised $3.6 million in total receipts during the most recent fundraising quarter and $8.3 million for the full election cycle, beginning in late 2021. He has spent $6.9 million. That leaves him with $1.3 million in the bank.

Grassley raised $2 million in total receipts during the most recent fundraising quarter and $9.7 million for the full election cycle, beginning in 2017. He’s spent $6.7 million. He has $3.9 million in cash on hand.

Franken’s campaign said it saw an immediate boost in the four days after the release of the Register’s Iowa Poll, tallying $500,000 in new donations.

Dvorsky, the former state party chair, pointed to the message of Franken's very first yard signs, which said in bright blue and yellow font, “I believe Michael Franken can defeat Chuck Grassley.”

Getting Democrats to believe that it’s even possible, she said, is a key piece of the fight.

There are fewer than three weeks to persuade them.

Editor's note: This story has been updated to correct U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst's 2020 margin of victory over Theresa Greenfield. Fundraising numbers for Chuck Grassley and Mike Franken have also been updated to reflect the candidates' total receipts.

Iowa Poll methodology

Stephen Gruber-Miller covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. He can be reached by email at sgrubermil@registermedia.com or by phone at 515-284-8169. Follow him on Twitter at @sgrubermiller.

Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Mike Franken faces big challenge against Chuck Grassley in Senate race