Iowa Poll: Tom Miller holds narrow lead over Brenna Bird in attorney general race
- Oops!Something went wrong.Please try again later.
© Copyright 2022, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.
Democratic Attorney General Tom Miller holds a narrow lead over Republican challenger Brenna Bird as Election Day approaches, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.
Miller leads Bird 47% to 45% among likely Iowa voters. Another 2% say they would vote for someone else, 1% say they would not vote, 5% say they are not sure or do not remember who they voted for and 1% did not want to say.
The poll of 801 likely Iowa voters was conducted Oct. 31 through Nov. 3 by Selzer & Co. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The latest result shows Bird has gained ground from a previous Iowa Poll conducted Oct. 9-12, with support rising among Republican and independent likely voters. In the October poll, taken just before early voting began, 49% of likely voters supported Miller and 33% supported Bird.
Miller, who is seeking an 11th term this year, is the longest-serving state attorney general in the country. His campaign has emphasized consumer protection efforts, state lawsuits against opioid manufacturers and using the law to serve ordinary Iowans.
Bird has touted her endorsements from county sheriffs and promised to “back the blue.” She’s accused Miller of being “retired on the job.”
More:Where Brenna Bird & Tom Miller stand on key issues in Iowa attorney general race
National Republicans see the race as a promising pickup opportunity and have poured money into Bird’s campaign. Her campaign has received $2 million this year from the Republican Attorneys General Association.
Miller has received nearly $1 million from the national Democratic Attorneys General Association.
Miller draws support from independents, some Republicans
Miller’s lead is buoyed by crossover appeal from political independents and a small share of Republicans.
Miller has strong support from his own party, with 93% of Democratic likely voters backing him, as well as backing from 12% of Republicans — a potentially significant share in a close race.
Bird has the support of 83% of Republicans, up from 66% in October. She wins backing from 5% of Democrats.
Miller leads Bird among political independents, 50% to 36%. However, that lead has shrunk since the October Iowa Poll, when Miller led 52% to 23% among independents.
Miller benefits from some ticket-splitting. He has the support of 14% of likely voters who plan to or have cast their ballots for Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, 14% of those who plan to or have voted for Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds and 13% of those who have voted or intend to vote for a Republican candidate for Congress.
Bird, meanwhile, has the backing of just 5% of likely Iowa voters who support Democratic Senate candidate Mike Franken, 3% of those who support Democratic gubernatorial candidate Deidre DeJear and 5% of those who say they have or will vote for a Democratic congressional candidate.
More:Brenna Bird, Tom Miller talk abortion, opioids in Iowa attorney general debate
Miller also leads Bird by a more than 2-to-1 margin among those who have already cast their votes, 64% to 29%. However, fewer early votes have been cast this year than in past elections when Miller was on the ballot. Those who have already voted make up just 22% of the poll’s likely voters. Those who say they have already voted are more likely to be Democrats than Republicans.
Miller ‘doing his job;’ Bird offers ‘some fresh blood’
Katherine Salamon, a 28-year-old Democratic poll respondent from Coralville, said she’s planning to vote for Miller on Election Day. She said she believes Miller has handled his position well, and she remembers instances of Reynolds criticizing Miller for what Salamon said were normal actions by his office.
“I am not the biggest fan of Kim Reynolds,” she said. “And it’s sort of a situation of — if he’s just doing his job and that’s enough for her to criticize him then, well, that’s enough for me to support him.”
Poll respondent Doug Vacha, a 71-year-old Des Moines resident who is a registered Democrat, said he plans to vote for Bird on Tuesday.
“The thing I admire most is she is some fresh blood,” said Vacha, a retired teacher and salesman. “It’s a hell of a long way from 1978, when Tom Miller took office, to today.”
However, Vacha also said he plans to vote for Grassley, who was first elected to the Iowa Legislature in 1958 and to the Senate in 1980.
More:Could this year be Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller's fiercest reelection race?
Miller wins a majority of voters with no religious affiliation (77%), suburban voters (59%), women (55%), city dwellers (54%), those younger than 35 (54%) and those with a college degree (51%).
Bird wins a majority of evangelicals (69%), rural voters (58%), Protestants (56%) and men (52%).
Des Moines Register reporter Francesca Block contributed to this article.
Stephen Gruber-Miller covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. He can be reached by email at sgrubermil@registermedia.com or by phone at 515-284-8169. Follow him on Twitter at @sgrubermiller.
About the poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted October 31-November 3, 2022, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 801 Iowans ages 18 or older who say they will definitely vote or have already voted in the 2022 general election for governor, U.S. Senate, and other offices.
Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 1,118 Iowa adults with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data.
Questions based on the sample of 801 Iowa likely voters have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.
Iowa Poll methodology
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Tom Miller, Brenna Bird close in AG election race, Iowa Poll shows
