Iowa Poll: Voters prefer Republicans in all 4 Iowa congressional races
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Iowa’s likely voters and those who already have cast ballots prefer Republican candidates in all four of the state’s congressional districts, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll found.
Republicans hold a significant advantage among voters in the newly drawn 1st and 4th districts. They hold a slight edge in the 2nd and 3rd districts.
The Iowa Poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. from Oct. 31 to Nov. 3, asked 801 likely voters or those who have already cast ballots whether they favor the Democratic or Republican candidate for the U.S. House.
Fifty-one percent of voters statewide say they prefer a Republican candidate for House, while 40% of likely voters favor a Democrat.
Among independent voters, 40% say they would vote for the Republican candidate, 39% prefer a Democrat, 10% are not sure; and 8% would vote for someone else.
Statewide, a gender gap prevails. Women give a slight lead to Democratic candidates (47%) over Republican candidates (44%). Men more than make up for that advantage, preferring Republicans 58% to 34%.
For the statewide questions, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. For the congressional districts, the margin of error ranges from plus or minus 6.6 to 7.9 percentage points.
Voters narrowly prefer a Republican in 3rd District
For the first time this year, more 3rd District voters say they lean toward a Republican candidate for the U.S. House.
Forty-seven percent of voters say they would vote for a Republican, while 44% say they would vote for a Democrat. The poll’s margin of error for the district is 6.9%.
In July, 47% of likely voters said they would vote for a Democrat and 44% a Republican. In October, 49% of likely voters favored a Democrat and 48% preferred a Republican.
The 3rd District covers Polk and Dallas counties and extends south. Two-term incumbent Rep. Cindy Axne is the only Democrat in Iowa’s current D.C. delegation. She faces a challenge from Republican state Sen. Zach Nunn.
More:What Iowa 3rd District candidates Cindy Axne, Zach Nunn say on issues like abortion, inflation
Mike Gilbert, an independent voter from Osceola, said he doesn’t know much about Nunn — but he plans to vote for him over Axne on Election Day. Gilbert, a 50-year-old farmer, said he was dissatisfied by the last two years under Democratic leadership.
“Everything has went through the roof,” Gilbert said. “Axne said that she thought we were killing it on the economy. If she is, I don’t know what world she’s in.”
Karen Walter, a Winterset Democrat, said she was impressed by Axne’s performance in office, especially her response to the 2019 floods in western Iowa. Walter, a 73-year-old retired accountant, said she was also concerned that Republicans would restrict abortion or cut Social Security if they regain a majority in Congress.
“I think that we need to have the Democrats hold the House,” she said.
Likely voters narrowly prefer a Republican in 2nd District
Preferences for a Republican or a Democrat in Congress are almost evenly split in the newly redrawn 2nd District, which covers Linn County and the northeastern corner of the state.
Forty-nine percent of likely voters say they would vote for a Republican candidate for the U.S. House. Forty-seven percent would support a Democrat. That 2-percentage-point difference is within the poll’s margin of error of 6.6% for the district.
That’s a shift from the October Iowa Poll, when 48% of likely voters said they would prefer a Democratic candidate and 46% preferred a Republican.
First-term incumbent Rep. Ashley Hinson, a Republican, is running for reelection against state Sen. Liz Mathis, a Democrat.
More:What Ashley Hinson and Liz Mathis say about abortion, inflation in Iowa's 2nd District race
Republican Anita Kabele, a 75-year-old retired small business owner in Cedar Falls and poll respondent, said she plans to vote for Hinson because she likes her “conservative values” and because she disagrees with Mathis on abortion and border security.
“I like Ashley Hinson because she’s got the common-sense attitude, which is what we need,” Kabele said. t.
Jaime Izaguirre, a 23-year-old Dubuque organizer for Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement, said he plans to vote for Mathis because she “is a strong supporter of education.” Izaguirre, a Democrat, criticized Hinson for voting against last year’s infrastructure bill and the Inflation Reduction Act.
“I think the Inflation Reduction Act is probably the biggest piece of legislation in the past 20 to 30 years that is doing stuff for everyday people, and I will not support a candidate that voted against that,” he said.
Republican candidates clear favorites in 1st and 4th districts
In the 1st District, which covers the southeastern corner of the state and extends as far west as Warren County, 49% of likely voters say they favor a Republican candidate for the U.S. House, compared with 40% who prefer a Democrat.
Incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, a Republican, is running for reelection in the 1st District against state Rep. Christina Bohannan, a Democrat.
The northwestern corner of the state, making up the 4th District, shows the widest divide. Fifty-nine percent of likely voters in the district plan to vote for a Republican or already have done so, while 30% prefer a Democrat.
Rep. Randy Feenstra, a first-term Republican, is running for reelection against insurance supervisor Ryan Melton, a Democrat. Bryan Jack Holder is also running as a member of the Liberty Caucus.
Register reporter Francesca Block contributed reporting.
Katie Akin is a politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at kakin@registermedia.com or at 410-340-3440. Follow her on Twitter at @katie_akin.
About the poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted October 31-November 3, 2022, for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 801 Iowans ages 18 or older who say they will definitely vote or have already voted in the 2022 general election for governor, U.S. Senate, and other offices.
Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 1,118 Iowa adults with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data.
Questions based on the sample of 801 Iowa likely voters have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.
Iowa Poll Methodology
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Republicans preferred in Iowa’s congressional races, Iowa Poll finds
