Ira Winderman: Heat need tax haven or it’s off to free-agency lockdown

MIAMI — The clarion call comes as a constant from the fan base, even during the best of times, “The Miami Heat have to do something with this roster.”

The difference this time around is that the urgency has less to do with upgrading than the complex math created by the NBA’s new collective-bargaining agreement.

No, the NBA has not gone to a hard cap similar to those of the NFL and NHL.

But for teams with high-end payrolls, it’s about to feel that way.

Debate, if you choose, whether the Heat have spent enough, are spending enough, or will spend enough, but appreciate that the rules of the game no longer solely are about how deep into his pockets Micky Arison is willing to go to sate Pat Riley, Erik Spoelstra or the outsiders who always want more.

Appreciate, as well, that the Heat will, barring an unimaginable selloff that might not even be possible, pay into the NBA luxury tax next season, the second time in five years that will be the case.

But with the NBA changing the rules, this is about more than the punitive luxury tax, of which the Heat have paid more than $50 million since the tax’s inception in 1999. Instead, with the addition of a second luxury-tax tier, it also impacts a team’s ability to construct a roster.

At the moment, in the wake of selecting UCLA forward Jamie Jaquez, the Heat payroll for next season, including salary-cap holds for roster spots yet to be filled, stands at about $178 million.

Now the perspective:

— The 2023-24 salary cap has been set at $136 million. In other words, no salary-cap space, as usual for the Heat.

— The 2023-24 luxury-tax line has been set at $165 million. So, yes, the Heat, as things stand, will have to cut a sizable check to the NBA as part of the pool paid to teams below the tax.

— The first “apron,” which also is a hard-cap figure in certain situations, has been set at $172 million. Above that figure, as the Heat are, means only a smaller mid-level exception is available.

— The second “apron” has been set at $182.5 million in total team payroll. And that now stands as accounting armageddon.

So for a moment, put aside the math, and consider the second-apron ramifications that go into place ahead of the upcoming personnel period:

— No mid-level or any other exception to sign outside free agents.

— Banned from sign-and-trade acquisitions.

— And therefore, because of those factors, no ability to sign any free agent above the NBA minimum salary. (Allow that to marinate: No ability to sign a single outside player above the league minimum.)

— Not allowed to sign players during the season from the buyout market (precluding the type of acquisition the Heat made this past season of Kevin Love, as would be the case with that size contract when above the first apron).

Other elements also are in play for teams in such a position above that second apron, with the restrictions becoming even more draconian starting in the 2024-25 offseason, as the new collective-bargaining agreement becomes more fully implemented.

Therefore, this arguably is less about money spent into the tax pool by the Arison family than how working with an excessive payroll could hamper and hinder Riley and general manager Andy Elisburg.

So where do the Heat stand?

They stand nominally below that second apron if nothing more is done at the moment, including bypassing the team’s ability in free agency to re-sign Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and Omer Yurtseven. Essentially, letting all walk for nothing in return.

That would leave a roster, below the second apron, of Jimmy Butler ($45.1 million 2023-24 salary), Bam Adebayo ($32.6 million), Kyle Lowry ($29.7 million), Tyler Herro ($27 million), Duncan Robinson ($18.2 million), Caleb Martin ($6.8 million), Love ($3.8 million, if he agrees to this maximum-possible Heat offer), Jaquez ($3.5 million), Nikola Jovic ($2.4 million) and Haywood Highsmith ($1.9 million).

From there, the only way for the Heat to fill out a required 15-man roster (not counting three two-way contracts, which do not count against the cap or tax), would be to sign four additional players at the $2 million veteran minimum (or undrafted players for slightly less). Also, the Heat with this math would have to waive-and-stretch Victor Oladipo by the end of August.

Granted, a blockbuster trade (Damian Lillard?) would change the calculus, but that would come with the awareness of locking in a roster in championship-or-bust mode.

Otherwise, it would appear the best way for the Heat to get out of luxury-tax jail (and the accompanying punitive measures) would be to sell off high-end contracts for little or nothing in return, with the focus there likely starting with Lowry and Robinson.

But even moving on from Lowry now still would not alleviate future concerns if Vincent and/or Strus are signed to multi-year contracts.

A franchise known for changing the rules of the game on the court through Spoelstra’s coaching now has an even more complex challenge off the court.

In the balance is the ability to avoid gridlock at Friday’s start of free agency — or accepting an expensive place on the sidelines.