Ira Winderman: How recency bias and playoff success could change the face of the Heat

DENVER – A former NBA executive this past week referred to it as the NCAA Tournament effect, a few shining moments over a matter of weeks impacting the longstanding perspective on a player.

A current NBA scout equated such snap judgements to the Jeremy Lin Effect, greatness with the risk of a rapid expiration date.

The context of the discussion was the Miami Heat’s unexpected rise to the NBA Finals as viewed through the prism of NBA talent evaluators.

Because nothing is more dangerous in such a process than recency bias.

And yet, with what is happening now, as the Heat compete against the Denver Nuggets on the league’s largest stage, that recency bias could go a long way toward determining what the Heat look like next season and in coming seasons.

In particular, the impact and the increased exposure, mostly in a positive light, on:

– Gabe Vincent.

– Max Strus.

– Caleb Martin.

– Duncan Robinson.

Until this postseason breakthrough by the Heat – Thursday’s Game 1 loss to the Nuggets notwithstanding – it would not have been a stretch to consider the quartet The Expendables, ancillary contributors on a 44-38, seventh-place team.

Now, as the Heat play into June, the calculus has changed, with Vincent and Strus impending unrestricted free agents, with Martin eligible for free agency in 2024, and with Robinson adding value with a heretofore largely unseen off-the-dribble game.

Gabe Vincent: Earning an NBA-minimum $1.8 million this season, Vincent emerged as a full-time starter when Kyle Lowry was sidelined in February by knee soreness.

Now, amid a solid postseason that included 19 points, with 5-of-10 3-point shooting, in Game 1 against the Nuggets, the price point has escalated.

“If you asked me back in February, I would have said, ‘Hey, probably part of the mid-level,’ ” ESPN analyst and former Brooklyn Nets executive Bobby Marks told the Sun Sentinel this past week. “I think Gabe can now get the full mid-level somewhere, which is $12.2 million.

“I mean, you go down the list of teams that need point guards, I think he’s the third best point guard on the board behind Kyrie [Irving] and I guess you could put [James] Harden up there. I think he’s shown his toughness; he can make big shots in big games. He could fit off the bench. He could start for you.”

A veteran NBA scout, not at liberty by league rule to publicly discuss impending free agents still under contract, agreed.

“The full mid-level? That’s in the ballpark,” the scout told the Sun Sentinel. “He’s had a very good run. I think he’s a backup; I cannot get to him as a starter.

“But you know what? That’s what quality backups are getting in this league, the full mid-level. He’s a combo guard in the best sense of the word.”

Max Strus: The playoffs also have reshaped the thinking on Strus, his 0 for 10 in Thursday’s Finals opener notwithstanding, a starter since the outset of the postseason.

“I think he’ll get that $12.2 number from the Heat or someone else out there,” Marks said, noting he has Strus valued at a slightly lower number.

“I don’t see one of these cap-space teams coming in and giving him like four for $60 million. Like I don’t see Orlando, who needs shooting, coming in all a sudden giving him $15 million. $16 million a year.”

The veteran scout said the full mid-level also might be a stretch for Strus, but not because of a single off night such as Thursday.

“I think it’s an overreach to say, ‘I’m going to pay this guy and he’s going to be my starting small forward,’ ” the scout said of Strus, who is earning $1.8 million this season. “He’s a solid backup. You still got to guard him. And he’s got a little more game than catch-and-shoot threes. He’s not a bad defender.”

Even with a return to the Heat, it could be difficult to view Strus as a starter, in light of Tyler Herro next season beginning his four-year, $130 million extension.

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Caleb Martin: No, not an impending free agent. And yet based on this playoff breakout, there already has to be future thought.

With Martin already considered at a price point beyond his $7.1 million player option for 2024-25, it means the Heat having to be prepared for such a jump in 2024 free agency.

And that could create pause when it comes to locking in Vincent and/or Strus this summer for two seasons or beyond at significant raises, even with Lowry coming off the books after next season.

“I think the one thing that Miami is going to have to be careful of is Caleb has that player option,” Marks said. “I still think you want to see more of a body of work. But you have to be prepared.”

Having a season to further assess should be helpful in the Martin deliberations.

“He’s gone up two levels, three levels,” the scout said of Martin’s postseason breakout. “He hasn’t gone up just one standard deviation higher. Sometimes you have to be careful with that.”

Duncan Robinson: No, Robinson isn’t hitting free agency any time soon, under contract through 2025-26,

But with these playoffs shedding new light on Robinson’s ability to play off the dribble, his value has moved closer to the $18.1 million he will earn next season.

And that could come into play as soon as next month, should the Heat look to free cap and luxury-tax space to address the free agencies of Vincent and Strus, or even take a long view with Martin.

“I think the days of having to attach draft picks to get rid of him are over,” Marks said of a possible Robinson trade. “I don’t think that applies anymore.”

The NBA scout wasn’t quite as certain.

“He’s shown he’s clearly more than a shooter in the playoffs,” the scout said. “He moves well without the ball, drives to the basket. But still he’s got to make shots, and he has. I’d say the sweetener could be a little less sweet now. But you still might have to toss something in to get off that contract.”

In an either/or scenario, the scout said he would move off of Robinson if it meant being able to accommodate retaining Strus in free agency.

“Strus is a better player,” the scout said. “I think Robinson is a specialist. when you get down to it. You’d rather have a rotation guy.”

IN THE LANE

THE RILEY WAY: Ahead of the NBA Finals, Nuggets coach Michael Malone said he took a page from the Pat Riley playbook by issuing a quiz to his team. That test came hours before Riley, in his role as Heat president, was at Ball Arena for Game 1 of the series. “I remember reading something about Pat Riley,” Malone said, “and he talked how he would quiz his players often. You think the main reason you’re quizzing them is to see if they are locked in, focused and paying attention. That’s part of it. But I thought the second part of Pat Riley’s reasoning for doing that was really – what stuck with me is that it also allows you to see if you’re doing your job as a coach. If they don’t know the answers, you’ve failed, not just them.” Malone’s players clearly had the answers in the series opener. For his part, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra, who has worked under Riley for decades, said he was unaware of Riley’s quizzical approach. “I’m glad Pat has never given me a quiz,” Spoelstra said with a smile. “I probably would have failed.”

RESPECTS PAID: The face of the Heat-Boston Celtics rivalry certainly has changed toward the more civil since the days of Riley-Danny Ainge sniping (also known as the STFU Era). That had Celtics President Brad Stevens taking time to praise the Heat’s victory in the Eastern Conference finals when he held his postseason state-of-the-team media session Thursday. “The competition is real; the competition is tough,” Stevens said of the seven-game loss in the series. “Miami played a terrific series. The Miami series was a lot harder. They went small fast and spread us out and were running great action. They made it tough for us to defend those guys on the perimeter. They made a ton of shots from a lot of different places from a lot of different people.”

JOY OF DEFEAT: Among those who took particular pleasure in the demise of the Celtics in Game 7 against the Heat was Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green, who found himself the subject of profanity at TD Garden during the 2022 NBA Finals. “I must say, it did not hurt me to watch the Boston Celtics fans suffer,” Green said on his podcast. “Those people were really rude to me last year and I like to see them suffer.” Green said he sensed Celtics arrogance after tying that series 3-3 from a 3-0 deficit. “I texted a friend and told him it would not shock me if Boston goes out here and chokes,” Green said. “Because they’re going to go back home and they’re going to feel like they won already. If I’m on Miami’s team and I saw the way they were celebrating and the things they were doing after Game 6, I’m immediately showing this to my teammates like, ‘Look at these dudes. They think they already won something. Let’s go smack them.’ ” Which the Heat did, 103-84.

THANKS OFFERED: In his 15th season, Nuggets forward Jeff Green at Finals Media Day cited Heat forward Udonis Haslem as a reason for his longevity. “He’s been a good mentor, friend of mine for a while. Watching him from afar, seeing how he’s went about his business,” Green said of the Heat captain who is retiring after this 20th season. “Also, I live in Miami, so seeing his work from afar, studying that, allowed me to get in this position. I just took it and put it to my use, now I’m in the position I am in today. I just try to relay that message to the young guys to be in this league for a long time.”

NUMBER

3.Times the Heat have won an NBA championship, the franchise’s only titles, after losing Game 1 of the NBA Finals, which they did on Thursday night to the Nuggets. In 2006, the Heat lost Game 1 in Dallas 90-80; in 2012, they lost Game 1 in Oklahoma City 105-94; and in 2013, they lost Game 1 vs. San Antonio 92-88. In their only other three previous NBA Finals appearances, which they lost, the Heat won Game 1 vs. Dallas 92-84 in 2011; they lost Game 1 in San Antonio 110-95 in 2014 (the “air-conditioning game”); and lost Game 1 against the Lakers 116-98 in 2020 in the Orlando quarantine bubble.