'Irene-like' storm expected to dump half a foot of rain, causing widespread flooding

Editor's note: This story has been updated.

As Vermont rides out a storm dumping 7 inches of rain on the area, forecasters are using terms like "catastrophic flooding," "life-threatening" and "Irene-like" to describe what the potential impacts could be. The area only recently recovered from infrastructure and financial impacts wrought from the tropical storm that also took seven lives back in 2011.

Gov. Phil Scott held a press conference at 11 a.m. Monday to update the public on the emergency response and he struck a grave tone.

"What's different for me is Irene lasted about 24 hours," he said, noting this storm is expected to last two-and-a-half days. "This is going on and we're getting this much rain − if not more − and it's going on for days. That's my concern. And it's not just the initial damage, but it's the second wave and the third wave."

Emergency management crews described the geographic challenges Vermont faces getting help to those who need it. Many communities along the spine of the Green Mountains stand to be impacted the most, but the north-to-south mountain range bisects the state, creating a barrier and difficult access, and the east-to-west roadways are flooded.

Learning from Irene, state officials said they had tripled the amount of swift water rescue teams from four in 2011 to 12 today, but that there are never enough for hard-to-reach areas when this much rain has fallen in a brief amount of time. Already, two swift water rescue teams from North Carolina were deployed in addition to the Vermont ones. A 35- to 45-person federal team from Massachusetts specializing in water rescue and search and rescue was expected to arrive by 2 p.m. A group from Michigan was expected, and the state was considering making a request to the state of Connecticut.

By 11 a.m., 19 people had been rescued by boat and another 25 had been evacuated, including some pets. There was one report of a person being swept away by waters in Londonderry early in the morning, but that was still unconfirmed.

In addition to rescues, the teams were hoping to carry out welfare and safety checks to assess needs and address them over the following days.

A state of emergency was declared, FEMA alerted and the National Guard put on notice.

Which areas have been most affected so far

As of 11 a.m., southern and eastern portions of the state had been impacted the most. However, the storm was expected to get heavier over Chittenden County, the most populous area of the state, in the afternoon and into the evening. The Winooski River was expected to crest over its bank around midnight in Montpelier, the state's capital.

Londonderry and Weston were inaccessible by road as of 11 a.m. and Ludlow also had extreme impacts. Rescues had also taken place at a Plymouth state park, in Stockbridge and in Andover. Northfield asked its residents to voluntarily evacuate the town.

There was concern for a dam in Calais, which was being monitored. A dam near Jamaica had been in dam release mode to relieve water backing up near Londonderry, but it was stopped as the waters became a threat to the safety of Jamaica.

Much of the state's Agency of Transportation crews were out blocking unsafe roadways and closing roads. As of 10 a.m., about two dozen state roads were closed and many town roads were closed, including those in the communities of Barton, Bethel, Cavendish, Hardwick, Killington, Londonderry, Ludlow, Middlesex, Mount Holly, Northfield, Orleans Village, Plymouth, Shrewsbury, Stockbridge, Waterbury, West Bridgewater, Weston, Williamstown, Winhall, Woodstock and Worcester. The agency's garage in Woodstock was flooded and its garages in Londonderry and Ludlow were isolated.

Staying safe

Vermont officials say if you have an emergency, call 911. If you need some type of help or information, call 211. VT Alert sends alerts to your phone or email that impact your area. Sign up at vem.vermont.gov/vtalert. Road conditions can be found at newengland511.org. Follow the weather at weather.gov/btv, twitter.com/NWSBurlington, or other local forecasters or weather services.

Dan Batsie, deputy commissioner of Public Safety, said not to drive over flooded roadways, avoid threats of high water including evacuating your home if necessary, and listen not only to state but local alerts. He said if you are using a generator, make sure it is not inside a building and is properly ventilated. And, if you are evacuating your home, turn off the circuit breaker to cut the electricity if it is safe to do so before leaving.

"We want to prioritize life and safety, the rest can be replaced as we've proven with Irene," Gov. Scott said. The good news, Scott said, is that some areas are in better shape than they were in 2011, as a result of Irene and infrastructure improvements.

Catastrophic flooding forecasted for Vermont

Forecasters aren't mincing words, comparing the possible effects to tropical storm Irene that in 2011 dumped 11 inches of rain, caused hundreds of millions in damages and claimed seven lives.

Marlon Verasamy, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Burlington office, said the reason for the austere tone is because they want Vermonters to take this storm seriously.

By 9 a.m. on Monday some parts of southern Vermont had received 5 inches of rain over the previous day and night. A swift water rescue was deployed to bring 10 people out of a flooded campground and Ludlow was completely shut down due to widespread flooding over many of its roadways.

What is expected for Chittenden County

While much of southern Vermont and some of the eastern parts of the state already had significant impacts by Monday morning, the large-scale system was expected to move northward bringing more rain and flooding to Chittenden County into the afternoon.

In eastern Chittenden, east of the Browns River and including parts of Essex and Richmond, a flash flood warning was in effect until 1:15 p.m. In that area 2 to 3 inches of rain was expected to fall during the day, with 1 to 2 more inches over night.

In western Chittenden County, a flood watch was in effect until 8 p.m. This area was expected to receive between 1 and 2 inches of rain during the day, and the same overnight.

For Monday in Chittenden County, localized flooding and ponding on roadways was expected. Verasamy said the National Weather Service was keeping a particular eye on the Winooski River which was beginning to rise and expected to hit flood stage, cresting at moderate flood stage by mid-day Tuesday. So while roads and homes were expected to be affected on Monday, the rivers overflowing their banks was the big concern for Tuesday.

Parts of the county could receive 6 inches of rain over the course of a couple days. As the region has had a good amount of rainfall recently, a higher water table means the flooding risk is greater and more widespread.

What to do and not do to stay safe

For motorists, it's best not to traverse roadways covered in water as the depth and swiftness of the flow can be difficult to determine and risky to attempt. Verasamy cautioned to not take risks and if there is any doubt turn around or find another route. A good source for road closures and status is newengland511.org. On the website you can even put in driving directions to find a safe route that avoids road closures.

For home dwellers, Verasamy said if your home is prone to flooding during regular flooding events, expect it to flood with this event and make plans accordingly. Residents could reach out to local officials if they need to get out and may consider getting to higher ground and staying elsewhere to avoid becoming trapped in their home. This includes people living next to the Winooski River.

For up-to-the-minute forecasts and driving conditions, Verasamy suggests signing up for VT Alert if you haven't already. You can tailor alerts for your specific geographic area and receive notices via email or text.

Verasamy said this is expected to be a widespread, large and impactful event with Irene-like conditions.

This story will be updated as additional information becomes available.

Contact reporter April Barton at abarton@freepressmedia.com or 802-660-1854. Follow her on Twitter @aprildbarton.

This article originally appeared on Burlington Free Press: Vermont receives six inches of rain, catastrophic flooding expected