Is there hope for a diplomatic end to the war in Ukraine?

“The 360” shows you diverse perspectives on the day’s top stories and debates.

What’s happening

Representatives from both Ukraine and Russia have recently expressed optimism about progress made in potential peace talks after three weeks of war.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the two sides were “close to an agreement,” while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia’s demands were becoming “more realistic.”

Their hopeful language stands in stark contrast to the situation on the ground, which has featured relentless Russian assaults on Ukrainian cities even as its ground troops have struggled to advance.

Several European leaders have been involved in brokering negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Although the United States has supplied Ukraine with military support and spearheaded sanctions on the Russian economy, the Biden administration reportedly has no plans to become directly involved in the talks.

Zelensky on Tuesday said Ukraine may be willing to drop its longstanding goal of becoming a full member of NATO, an apparent concession to one of Russia’s top demands. A Kremlin spokesperson said last week that the war could “be stopped in a moment” if Ukraine agreed to stay out of the military alliance, to acknowledge Crimea — the Black Sea peninsula that Russia invaded and annexed in 2014 — as official Russian territory, and also to recognize the independence of two Russian-backed breakaway republics in eastern Ukraine. For its part, Ukraine is seeking a ceasefire, the maintenance of its democratic government, the full withdrawal of Russian troops and security guarantees from Western allies.

Why there’s debate

Whatever steps may have been made toward a ceasefire, there’s still an enormous amount of skepticism that diplomacy can really bring the war to an end anytime soon. “There is very little point of spending the diplomatic capital, I'd say, on efforts that from the other side are designed to be a failure,” Estonia’s ambassador to the U.S. told CNN last week.

Pessimists generally argue that Russian President Vladimir Putin has far too much on the line — his legacy, his ability to hold onto power, perhaps even his life — to accept anything other than total victory over Ukraine. They say Putin’s past behavior, including his bombing campaign in Chechnya in the early 1990s and more recent tactics in Syria’s civil war, show that he is more than willing to endure a prolonged and brutal assault rather than concede ground to his enemies.

But optimists hope that the combined pressures of crippling sanctions and frustrating military failures might convince Putin to end the invasion if given a face-saving opportunity. “You bet that I have to believe it’s still possible,” Rep. Andy Kim, D-N.J., a former diplomat, told Foreign Policy. “Otherwise, then we’re saying it’s only going to be on the battlefield … that this will end.”

Even the most hopeful observers say ending the war is likely to mean acceding to some of Russia’s demands, but they argue that a distasteful compromise is a much better outcome than an unending conflict that could decimate Ukraine or escalate into a larger global war.

What’s next

President Biden is scheduled to travel to Europe next week for a NATO summit, but it’s unclear whether he plans to play a larger hand in negotiations while he’s there. Ukraine’s chief negotiator has said that any peace agreement would have to be finalized through direct talks between Zelensky and Putin, but Moscow doesn't seem as eager for such a meeting to happen.

Perspectives

Optimists

The path to a diplomatic solution is narrow, but not blocked entirely

“The question for Western leaders is how to ensure Putin is defeated while nevertheless providing him with a route out of the crisis and avoiding any missteps that could lead to a wider conflagration. The path along the cliff edge is precarious.” — Tom McTague, Atlantic

It’s important to keep laying the groundwork for an eventual end of the war

“The West must continue to work diplomatic channels. Moscow has indicated no serious intent to negotiate, and as a result, the United States has seen little point in trying to talk. But while the prospect of a ceasefire in the short-term may seem remote, there will come a point where Putin needs an off-ramp. The West can keep applying pressure on Putin while showing him that a negotiated peace is there for the taking.” — Editorial, Irish Times

Good-faith negotiations are needed to create pressure on Putin at home

“An original goal of these sanctions was to persuade Moscow to change course. To accomplish that, the United States needs to offer Russians the prospect of at least some sanctions relief if they withdraw their forces. That kind of offer isn’t likely to change Putin’s mind, but it could help increase pressure on him from his military and his oligarchs, as well as the Russian public.” — Doyle McManus, Los Angeles Times

However far-fetched, every possible path to ending the war must be pursued

“The Russo-Ukrainian war has lasted longer than anyone expected and could go on even longer. But the price that Ukrainians are paying, and will continue to pay as the war drags on, will become increasingly untenable — as, over time, will that of Russia. Washington must leave no stone unturned, not merely to buttress Ukraine’s ability to keep fighting but also to develop a formula that leads to the war’s termination.” — Dov S. Zakheim, The Hill

Skeptics

Putin won’t accept anything other than total victory, no matter the cost

“How can Putin make it any clearer to those Western diplomats who are so convinced that some set of incentives and concessions will convince him to halt the fighting? He doesn’t want an ‘off ramp.’ He isn’t looking for a way to end this war. He just wants to win this war, and he doesn’t care how much he and everyone else has to pay in blood and treasure to achieve his victory.” — Jim Geraghty, National Review

It would be foolish to trust Putin to stick to the terms of a peace agreement

“There are two mistakes we can make about figures like Mr. Putin. One is to underestimate their talent for troublemaking if they don’t get what they want. The other is to believe that by giving in to their demands we can quiet them down. The West has made both mistakes with Mr. Putin in the past. We must try to do better now.” — Walter Russell Mead, Wall Street Journal

Men like Putin don’t compromise

“When you get into this state and you’re obsessed with fantasies of grandeur … you lash out and there isn’t much of an offramp also because autocrats don’t negotiate. They do deals with other autocrats.” — Ruth Ben-Ghiat, historian, to MSNBC

The West must not concede to any of Russia’s demands

“[A compromise] would be ill-advised. It would mean that Putin benefits from his murderous rampage. It would signal that war crimes will go unpunished, and that the West will not stand firm against nations waging war on innocents and against democracy. It would thus invite, not deter, more wars waged by more malevolent nations that are willing to endure short-term pain in hopes of Putin-like territorial and strategic gains.” — Quin Hillyer, Washington Examiner

All of Putin’s actions suggest he’s committed to ending the war on the battlefield

“Putin committed the largest military offensive in Europe since 1945, and he’s unlikely to admit defeat just a week or two into a campaign that he can still hope his better-equipped forces will win. The grim news for Ukrainians is that he’s been doubling down, pounding their cities and raising the alert status of his nuclear forces in the biggest gamble, by far, of his decades in the Kremlin.” — Marc Champion, Bloomberg

Putin has too much at stake to walk away from the fight

“For Putin, I think it’s very difficult to withdraw with nothing — from a regime survival perspective — otherwise, he would be admitting defeat. My suspicion and my fear is that what we’ll see is the use of more indiscriminate violence to make the Ukrainians decide that the losses aren’t worth it.” — Dmitry Gorenburg, Russian politics expert, to NBC News

Is there a topic you’d like to see covered in “The 360”? Send your suggestions to the360@yahoonews.com.

Photo by Ukrainian Presidency/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images