Here are the issues and debates that will mold South Carolina politics in 2024

Against a contentious campaign for president, a recurring theme will play out among voters when South Carolina begins its new legislative session: What's the best option for us?

The entire Statehouse is up for election and most political watchers will be watching to see how the makeup of the body will change. Will relatively moderate Republicans see successful challengers from their right? Will Democrats, who have yearned for a breakout moment for decades, bolster enough support to make dents in districts they feel they can flip?

Moreover, local Democrats are grappling with the question of whether they're losing popularity with Black voters who lean Democrat.

In 2023, a Republican supermajority successfully banned abortions after six weeks with exceptions for rape, incest, and a danger to a mother's life. Based on the pre-filed legislation, it is likely that the body will next target transgender minors and gender-affirming healthcare.

Then there are the two major presidential primaries that are likely to dictate how the rest of the year unfolds.

Former S.C. Gov. Nikki Haley, whose reluctance to directly name slavery as the root cause of the American Civil War in New Hampshire and was widely criticized, is up against former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in her home state.

President Joe Biden, whose 2020 campaign was given a new lease on life by South Carolina voters, will be hoping to boost his efforts for a second White House term in the Palmetto State. The polls show that Biden's popularity has suffered due to a psychological disconnect between voters and his economic messaging, as well as his administration's response to Israeli military action in the Palestinian regions of Gaza and the West Bank.

Here are the top issues that are likely to shape state politics in 2024.

Legislative debates on economic issues, LGBTQ+ care expected

Last year, the abortion debate dominated the halls of the legislature. This year, Bathroom bills targeting transgender minors in schools, nixing gender-affirming care as well as reforming the state's liquor liability insurance requirements to help small businesses stay afloat are some of the top issues expected during the legislative session.

Lawmakers had several meetings after the session ended to discuss insurance issues that were causing entertainment venues and restaurants that sell alcohol to close. In 2017, the legislature passed a law requiring businesses that sold alcohol after 5 p.m. to maintain liquor liability insurance of at least $1 million. This was so that businesses had insurance to pay for damages victims suffered in alcohol-related accidents. But insurance coverages have only skyrocketed since then and stressed out businesses that rely on sales from alcohol.

Meanwhile, new pre-filed bills from the House show attempts to revive the issue of the anti-transgender bathroom bill that could force transgender minors to use school restrooms catering to the sex they were assigned at birth. Another move to ban gender-affirming care lies in wait in the Senate.

As for abortion, lawmakers are in no rush to push for a stricter ban after successfully passing a six-week abortion ban last year.

Women in the Legislature: SC abortion ban renews focus on representation in government. 'We held off a total ban.'

Lawmakers associated with the South Carolina Freedom Caucus have already said that they are waiting to see if the Statehouse will begin tilting more to the right. Last year, Spartanburg lawmaker Rob Harris, a freshman policymaker, introduced a bill that could penalize women who have an abortion with the death penalty. Harris ousted longtime Spartanburg lawmaker Rita Allison in the primary elections. He is now facing a new primary challenge from Lyman Town Councilman and former Spartanburg County Sherriff's Deputy Adam Crisp.

More: Former State Senator: Rita Allison's primary loss 'big blow' for Spartanburg County and SC

GOP Primary: Haley, Trump and constitutional questions

What does it mean for the Republican primary process when the party's leading candidate is embroiled in a litany of legal challenges?

Trump enjoys an enormous lead but recent challenges in Colorado and Maine have complicated the race.

Colorado’s Supreme Court and Maine’s secretary of state found Trump ineligible to serve under a provision of the 14th Amendment that bars people who took an oath to uphold the Constitution and then took part in an insurrection from serving again.

A similar challenge is stuck in a federal court in South Carolina, the Post and Courier reported.

It is unclear if the court will even pick it up and if the case can dim Trump's influence in the state. Previous legal challenges have only boosted the former president's popularity. The question is how Trump's legal challenges will affect his campaigning in South Carolina and other states, and if that will give his competitors a rare opportunity to make a dent in his poll numbers.

As for his challengers, Haley has seen the most consistent growth in the presidential race. Debate after debate, the former S.C. Gov. and U.N. Ambassador edged out her competitors and found more donors turning their attention toward her. Yet, Haley is still struggling to make her home state her safest bet to succeed.

Why is Nikki Haley not leading in SC? Nikki Haley was once wildly popular in SC. Does she stand a chance against Trump there?

Moreover, Haley's reluctance to name slavery as the root cause of the American Civil War while campaigning in New Hampshire as well as South Carolina's history as the first Confederate state to secede from the union has opened her campaign to extensive criticism.

In its declaration of secession, the state expressed its desire to leave the Union due to "increasing hostility on the part of the non-slaveholding States to the institution of slavery."

As governor, Haley signed a bill to remove a Confederate flag from the grounds of the statehouse in 2015 in the wake of the Mother Emanuel Church shooting in Charleston. Nine Black Americans were killed by a white supremacist, as per the writings investigators uncovered.  Will this affect her campaign by turning away Independent and moderate Republicans?

Democratic Primary: Biden campaigns on saving democratic institutions

In his bid for re-election, the Biden campaign is revisiting inflection points in American history to cast his campaign as a movement to preserve democratic institutions.

After Biden visits Valley Forge, where he intends on harking back to the Revolutionary War when America's forefathers transformed disorganized militias into a well-oiled coalition in the fight for independence from England, Biden will visit Mother Emanuel Church in Charleston on Jan. 8.

The site of the massacre laid bare the racial tensions in South Carolina and Biden will likely contrast his campaign's messaging on racial tensions with that of Haley's bewildering explanation of the Civil War and Trump's comments about immigrants from Africa, Asia and South America "poisoning the blood" in a Dec. 16 rally. Vice President Kamala Harris and other GOP challengers like former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie have rebuked Trump for his rhetoric and said the former president's language around blood purity was similar to that of Adolf Hitler's.

Meanwhile, the Biden campaign has said that anti-immigrant and racially charged comments were evidence of the GOP's "flirtation with white supremacy."

DNC National Press Secretary Sarafina Chitika released a press statement on Jan. 3 and said that the GOP's refusal to acknowledge the perils of white supremacy was "a terrifying reflection of the full-scale MAGA takeover of the GOP, led by Donald Trump and championed by other 2024 candidates.

"Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy are all competing in a disgraceful race to the bottom, embracing hate and bigotry and abandoning the core values of the American people: equality, freedom, and justice for all," Chitika said in a press statement.

But is there a disconnect between Democrats and their most reliable base?

South Carolina Democrats were overjoyed last year when the Democratic National Convention reworked the early states and put the Palmetto state on the top in the primary calendar.

South Carolina and its Black voters were instrumental in reviving Biden's lagging 2020 campaign, so it was no surprise when current DNC Chair Jaime Harrison, who was also a former South Carolina Democratic Party Chair, as well as U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn advocated for the top spot for the state to reinforce Biden's chances for a second term.

But recent polls by the New York Times and Siena College as well as GenForward at the University of Chicago have shown waning interest in Biden's candidacy among Black voters.

South Carolina Democrats have long yearned for resources to be able to reinvigorate its base for both national, statewide and local races. Earlier in December 2023, the state party announced they will be deploying nearly 50 new staff members, and target all 46 counties for voter outreach. The party also said that they would be launching a statewide bus tour for "reaching voters where they are."

Why is this important?

Political strategists are always preparing for local wins on the back of the presidential race. They do so because they are anticipating that voters may vote straight ticket, especially in a consequential year of the presidential elections.

Locally, the disconnect between the Democratic Party and Black voters has been more apparent. On Nov. 3, days before the municipal elections in Greenville, six prominent Black pastors— Pastor Curtis Johnson, Rev. Stacey Mills, Rev. James Nesbitt, Rev. B.L. Battle, Rev. Vinson Royal and Rev. Phillip Baldwin, endorsed the Republican At-Large City Council candidate Randall Fowler against Democratic incumbent Dorothy Dowe, and said Black voters in Greenville were unlikely to benefit from being a reliable base for any one political party.

Local Democrats: Greenville Democrats remove official from leadership, say he supported GOP candidate

"In making this endorsement we have evaluated the long history of patronizing promises made and broken, of empty gestures made without substance, of spoken good intentions that ultimately rang hollow, and concluded that the change we need will not come by supporting the status quo," they said in the press statement.

Can South Carolina's Democratic base and Biden prove to be beneficial to each other?

Will voters factor in questions about personal issues at the voting booth?

On the congressional side, two embattled congressmen from the Upstate, U.S. Rep. Jeff Duncan and U.S. Rep. William Timmons, are facing political challenges that threaten to bring their personal lives into the mix.

The allegations of extramarital relationships have already prompted a targeted ad. The ad implied that the accusations against them conflicted with the "family values" the two campaigned on.

Social issues and questions of morality have often played a big role in campaigning in the Upstate. Duncan has always had a strong presence as a conservative leader in the region. Meanwhile, Timmons has enjoyed proximity with former President Donald Trump as well as the new House Speaker Mike Johnson.

South Carolina Freedom Caucus Chair Adam Morgan has already thrown his hat into the ring to challenge Timmons.

But will this make a difference to the voters in the Upstate?

Devyani Chhetri covers SC Politics for the Greenville News. You can reach her at @ChhetriDevyani on X or dchhetri@gannett.com

This article originally appeared on Greenville News: Issues and debates that will mold South Carolina politics in 2024