ISW analyses battle for Marinka

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has stated that the potential capture of Marinka is not a sign of an operationally significant advance for the Russians.

Source: ISW

Quote: "Russia's likely capture of Marinka in Donetsk Oblast represents a limited Russian tactical gain and does not portend any operationally significant advance unless Russian forces have dramatically improved their ability to conduct rapid mechanised forward movement, which they show no signs of having done."

Details: The ISW estimated that Russian forces were likely controlling most, if not all, of Marinka, despite the fact that there was no visual evidence of the full capture of Marinka by Russian forces as of 26 December.

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the capture of Marinka would allow Russian troops to drive Ukrainian combat units away from occupied Donetsk and create a wider operational space for Russian troops.

Many Russian military bloggers have hailed the capture of Maryinka as a tactical victory and stated that it would allow Russian forces to launch offensives towards settlements up to 15 kilometres west of Marinka in the coming weeks and months, posing a threat to nearby Ukrainian ground lines of communication.

The ISW reiterated that Russian forces had been attempting to capture Marinka since 2014 and have been conducting daily direct attacks on the settlement since the start of the full-scale invasion, intensifying these attacks in early October 2023.

Both Russian and Ukrainian officials have admitted that the fighting has completely destroyed Marinka, a small settlement that was home to about 9,000 people before the invasion.

Quote: "A small and completely destroyed settlement does not offer Russian forces a secure operational foothold from which to launch further offensive operations.

Marinka is located less than a kilometre from the pre-invasion frontline and Ukrainian forces have long fortified many of the surrounding settlements, which Russian forces have been similarly struggling to capture."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 26 December: 

• Russia's likely capture of Marinka in Donetsk Oblast represents a limited Russian tactical gain and does not portend any operationally significant advance unless Russian forces have dramatically improved their ability to conduct rapid mechanised forward movement, which they show no signs of having done.

• Localised Russian offensive operations are still placing pressure on Ukrainian forces in many places along the front in eastern Ukraine, however, and can result in gradual tactical Russian advances.

• Ukrainian forces conducted a successful missile strike that destroyed a Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) vessel and potentially damaged port infrastructure in occupied Feodosiia, Crimea on 26 December.

• Russian forces struck a train station in Kherson City where civilians were waiting for evacuation on 26 December.

• Russian forces have reportedly decreased the tempo of their operations on east (left) bank Kherson Oblast, likely in connection with decreasing Russian aviation activity after Ukrainian forces recently shot down several Russian aircraft.

• The Ukrainian government continues efforts to systematise and increase the sustainability of Ukrainian mobilisation over the long term.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to portray himself as a gracious Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces, while contrasting his apparent attention to the Russian irregular forces’ with the Russian Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) incompetence.

• Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) member states met during a series of meetings in St Petersburg on 25 and 26 December.

• Russian actors seized on ongoing protests in Serbia against Serbian President Alexander Vucic to blame Western actors for causing instability in Serbia, which Russia perceives as a long-term European ally.

• A prominent Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Finland is becoming a "second Ukraine," creating rhetorical parallels between Russian narratives about Ukraine and Finland, further suggesting that Russia maintains future ideological and territorial objectives that far exceed the war in Ukraine.

• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Kupiansk, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Robotyne as positional engagements continued along the entire line of contact.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a series of laws on 25 December to help further bolster Russia’s force generation capacity.

• The Kremlin further formalised avenues to coerce residents of occupied Ukraine to receive Russian passports using maternity capital payments.

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