ISW points out Russia's efforts to shape information sphere to justify its aggression in other countries

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War have suggested that the Kremlin continues to rely on the "compatriots abroad" concept to justify possible aggression against the Baltic States and other NATO member-states.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Analysis of available data shows that Russian President Vladimir Putin, self-proclaimed president of the Republic of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko and Kremlin officials said that Russia is enmeshed in an existential geopolitical conflict with an alleged "modern Nazi movement" that extends beyond Ukraine during the celebrations of the 80th anniversary of the breaking of the siege of Leningrad.

"Putin has long tried to construct an ideology for Russia that he can use to support a geopolitical confrontation with the West reminiscent of the Cold War, and the Kremlin may increasingly use existing rhetoric about fighting Nazism to support this effort," the ISW wrote.

The Kremlin has called for the "denazification" of Ukraine in an effort to undermine the current government and has used information operations about Ukrainian "Nazis" to shroud its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in the myths of the so-called Great Patriotic War.

Russian officials had previously also levelled the "Nazi" label against Western states beyond Ukraine, though the likely coordinated rhetoric of Putin, Lukashenko, Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Director Sergei Naryshkin, and Russian State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin on 27 January "suggest[s] that the Kremlin may increasingly label any perceived adversary and possibly the entire West as ‘Nazi’," the ISW wrote.

The ISW report continued: "The Kremlin may have decided that the simple narrative that Russia and other states are fighting a geopolitical Nazi force is a more effective immediate narrative line than Putin’s attempt to appeal to Russian citizens and Russian speakers in the territory of the former Soviet Union and Russian Empire with the ideology of the ‘Russian World’ (Russkiy Mir), which is based on purposefully amorphous ethnic identities that are not agreed upon and that are at odds with Russia’s multi-ethnic composition."

The ISW analysts also stressed that Putin’s accusation that the Baltic States have adopted "Nazism" might be part of the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to set the stage for future Russian aggression against NATO members.

The ISW’s data indicates that Putin has claimed that the Baltic States have designated thousands of their residents "subhuman," are "depriving" them of their "most basic rights", and are subjecting them to "persecution".

The Kremlin has historically used its concept of "compatriots abroad", which vaguely includes ethnic Russians and Russian speakers of other ethnicities, to justify Russian aggression in neighbouring states.

The ISW "continues to assess that Kremlin officials and mouthpieces may be attempting to set information conditions for possible future Russian aggression in the Baltic states – and other NATO members, such as Finland – under the guise of protecting Russia’s ‘compatriots abroad’."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways for 27 January:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, and Kremlin officials claimed that Russia is in an existential geopolitical conflict with an alleged modern Nazi movement that extends beyond Ukraine while marking the 80th anniversary of the breaking of the siege of Leningrad.

• Putin has long tried to construct an ideology for Russia that he can use to support a geopolitical confrontation with the West reminiscent of the Cold War, and the Kremlin may increasingly use existing rhetoric about fighting Nazism to support this effort.

• Putin specifically accused the Baltic states of adopting "Nazism," likely as part of continued Kremlin efforts to set information conditions for future Russian aggression against NATO members.

• Myanmar banks reportedly connected to the Russian System for the Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) banking system, a Russian analogue for the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) banking system.

• Russian forces conducted a limited series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on 26 and 27 January.

• Russian authorities are likely blocking communications in the Sakha Republic for the fourth consecutive day following 24 January protests in support of a Russian citizen allegedly murdered by a naturalised Russian citizen from Tajikistan.

• Russian forces made recent confirmed advances near Kupiansk, Kreminna, and Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on 27 January.

• UK outlet The Telegraph reported on 26 January, citing an unnamed Western official, that Russia is spending roughly 40% of its GDP on the war in Ukraine, more than Russian national spending on health and education.

• Russian federal subjects continue to establish patronage networks with occupied areas of Ukraine.

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