ISW: Putin unlikely to deploy troops from routine spring conscription cycle to Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on March 30 setting out the routine spring conscription campaign, calling 147,000 citizens up for statutory military service.

Russia conducts two conscription cycles per year with the spring conscription cycle usually conscripting 134,000 people.

The Institute for the Study of War said in their latest update that Russia may use Belarus’ training capacity to support the increase of 13,000 conscripts from previous years.

The new conscripts will not increase Russian combat power in the short term, as Russian conscripts must undergo months of training and service before they see combat.

"Putin remains unlikely to deploy newly conscripted troops to participate in combat in Ukraine due to concerns for the stability of his regime," the ISW said.

Putin did not deploy conscripts from the spring 2022 conscription cycles in response to Ukraine’s September 2022 counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast but instead mobilized reservists to stabilize collapsing frontlines.

"This decision indicated Putin’s policy preference for mobilizing reservists rather than committing conscripts to battle — likely for political reasons — even though conscripts entering the final months of their annual service obligation might fight more effectively than civilian reservists," the ISW found.