ISW says attack from Belarus "more likely" in late 2023

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said that, given current Russian military activity in Belarus, an attack from Belarus in late 2023 seems more likely that one earlier in the year.

Source: ISW report from 19 January 2023

Details: Senior Kremlin officials continue holding high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership. This activity could be setting conditions for a Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus, although not necessarily and not in the coming weeks.

The ISW said that the "most dangerous course of action" (MDCOA) of a new Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus in late 2023 seems more likely that an attack earlier in the year.

Meanwhile, Russia’s nationalist military bloggers continue to criticise the idea of Russian forces attacking Ukraine from Belarus.

The self-proclaimed Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko continues to balance against the Kremlin by framing Belarus as a sovereign state within the Russia-dominated Union State. Lukashenko’s readout of his meeting with Russian Defence Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that he and Lavrov had identified unspecified areas of cooperation to "preserve the sovereignty of the two countries in all respects."

This rhetoric is "consistent with Lukashenko's longstanding efforts to avoid ceding Belarusian sovereignty to the Kremlin-dominated Union State structure," the ISW said.

Key Takeaways from the ISW report:

• Senior Kremlin officials continue holding high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership – an activity that could set conditions for a Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus, although not necessarily and not in the coming weeks.

• A new Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus in early 2023 seems less likely given current Russian military activity in Belarus, although an attack from Belarus in late 2023 seems more plausible.

• Ultranationalist Russian military bloggers continue to criticise the idea of Russian forces attacking Ukraine from Belarus.

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attacked the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), underscoring the infeasibility of the Kremlin supporting a third Minsk-type agreement.

• Lukashenko continues to balance against the Kremlin by framing Belarus as a sovereign state within the Russian-dominated Union State.

• The Kremlin continues to falsely promote a narrative that the war will escalate if Ukraine receives weapons with the capability to strike Russian forces in occupied Crimea.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly siding with the enemies of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, likely in an ongoing effort to reduce Prigozhin’s influence in Russia.

• Prigozhin’s continued use of the Wagner Group’s claimed tactical success to elevate his position is likely deepening a conflict with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for influence in the Russian information space.

• Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov may have officially declared that the Wagner Group does not belong in the structure of the Russian Armed Forces and that the Russian military does not collaborate with Wagner despite ample evidence to the contrary.

• Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counteroffensive operations near Svatove, and Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks near Kreminna.

• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Klishchiivka amidst ongoing Russian offensive operations around Soledar, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka.

• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted localised offensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast.

• Russian officials are reportedly continuing to prepare for a second wave of mobilisation.

• Ukrainian partisans may have conducted an improvised explosive device attack in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

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