IU football vs. Rutgers What I'm Watching: 2 desperate teams who have already axed coaches

BLOOMINGTON – Desperate to break a four-game slide, Indiana finishes its October slate Saturday with a trip to Rutgers.

The Scarlet Knights are fresh from their bye week, but smarting from a string of losses and an offensive staff change. Sound familiar? Here are five things I’ll be watching Saturday afternoon:

What to expect from Rutgers’ offense?

Scarlet Knights coach Greg Schiano began Rutgers’ bye week with a firing, dismissing coordinator Sean Gleeson midseason after Gleeson’s offense mustered just 33 points over his final three games in charge.

Schiano’s decision is understandable. Rutgers has scored just 71 points in five games (14.2 ppg) and broken 20 points in a game only once against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents this season. The Scarlet Knights run the ball alright, but their overall scoring average is propped up by a heavy win against lower-division Wagner, and they’re next-to-last, ahead of only Iowa, in pass offense and total offense among Big Ten teams.

In Gleeson’s place now is interim coordinator Nunzio Campanile, who was also interim head coach following Chris Ash’s firing three years ago. Campanile has been working as Rutgers’ tight ends coach, but he has experience coaching multiple offensive positions.

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Schiano has thrown his support behind Campanile to turn the Scarlet Knights’ offense around. Tom Allen and staff can’t be sure what that looks like until Saturday afternoon.

Campanile has some coordinator experience, but most of that is at the high school level with Don Bosco Prep in New Jersey, where he spent nine years in that job. There’s not a wealth of game tape to pull from to suggest what he might tweak at this level.

And while Evan Simon has the bulk of Rutgers’ passing attempts, yards and touchdowns, he’s also thrown six interceptions this season to just four scores. With the experienced Noah Vedral behind him, Allen can’t even be sure Simon will start.

Saturday is a riddle Indiana is going to have to solve — at least to some extent — on the fly. Rutgers won’t change dramatically in just two weeks, but there will be differences the Hoosiers have to adjust to. How they handle those adjustments will be of paramount importance.

Turnover margin

It’s a simple formula, but often a successful one. The team that wins the turnover battle wins the game.

Right now, neither of these teams can claim a mandate on that.

Rutgers has played six games, gained 10 turnovers and lost 10 turnovers. Indiana has played seven games, gained 10 turnovers and lost 13 turnovers. The Scarlet Knights might at least feel like they’re breaking even, but for two teams with stumbling, inconsistent offenses, big plays on defense are as precious as gold. Not being ahead in the ledger is effectively being behind.

Rutgers can speak for Rutgers. Indiana, however, is built to live off takeaways. Its defense’s primary purpose is havoc plays, and while the Hoosiers need to be better holding onto the ball offensively, they also cannot subsist on their lack of forced turnovers defensively.

Saturday’s opponent has not exactly been charitable with the ball, but the Scarlet Knight’s aren’t a vault either. They can be forced into mistakes. Indiana needs some.

A healthy passing game

Tom Allen said Thursday that D.J. Matthews’ practice workload is increasing without setbacks, as Matthews’ injured hamstring continues to heal.

Matthews returned Saturday against Maryland after three weeks off, catching one pass for seven yards. Having him on the field made a difference. Having him closer to full strength would make a bigger one.

Alongside Matthews, Cam Camper — Indiana’s leading receiver — has slowly worked his way back to full health as well. A non-COVID illness kept Camper out of the loss at Nebraska, and his impact was subdued in his return against Michigan. But six catches for 69 yards and a touchdown against Maryland looked more like the Camper who emerged as Connor Bazelak’s favorite target in the first four weeks of this season.

Speaking of Bazelak … he had a funny game Saturday. His two interceptions proved costly as Maryland won by five while finishing plus-17 in points off turnovers. On the other hand, he threw for 292 yards, his third-highest total of the season, and his three touchdowns and 69% completion rate were both season highs, the latter by some distance.

That came on the heels of perhaps his two worst single-game performances of the season, at Nebraska and against Michigan. Now he faces a Rutgers team that’s one of just six in the Big Ten allowing fewer than 200 passing yards per game.

Rutgers’ offensive futility has overshadowed the fact that the Scarlet Knights have only allowed more than 21 points to an opponent twice this season, and one of those was Ohio State. Schiano’s team is stingier than it gets credit for. A healthy Matthews, a restored Camper and a more-settled Bazelak are all crucial to Indiana’s success this weekend in Piscataway.

Getting to the red zone

Easier said than done, given Rutgers has only allowed 12 red-zone possessions to opponents through six games all season.

(IU, for comparison’s sake, has allowed 30 such possessions in seven games.)

But of those 12, the Scarlet Knights have allowed points on every one, and a touchdown on all but one. Rutgers is stout on the ground and not easily beaten through the air. Schiano’s defense doesn’t necessarily create a lot of penetration or pressure, but it’s one of the Big Ten’s best teams on third downs, and it’s very good at limiting premium scoring opportunities.

Getting the ball inside the 20 doesn’t guarantee points, but past performance suggests it certainly increases your chances against this team in particular. It’s just been difficult to do. IU must sustain quality drives to give itself those opportunities Saturday.

Desperate times

Saturday’s will be a meeting of two desperate teams trying to alter course before their seasons spin beyond their control. Both have already made midseason staff changes trying to correct missteps or weaknesses. Both face difficult Novembers.

One arrives to this game off its bye week, the other knowing its bye is on the horizon. Rutgers is 3-3 with Indiana, Michigan State and Maryland still on the schedule. Indiana is 3-4 with Rutgers, Michigan State and Purdue still on the schedule.

That last game is looking more and more difficult for the Hoosiers by the week, but the fundamental stakes remain constant for both teams. Win now, or slump toward November stuck feeling like your destiny is permanently outside your control.

Who takes some measure of that control back Saturday?

Follow IndyStar reporter Zach Osterman on Twitter: @ZachOsterman.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Indiana football vs. Rutgers preview: What to watch, keys to game