IU vs. Maryland What I'm Watching: Offensive line, obviously, and dwindling bowl hopes

BLOOMINGTON – Is this weekend last-chance saloon for IU football’s bowl hopes in 2022? It sure feels that way, after a three-game losing streak that’s seen the Hoosiers outscored 111-55.

This week has not been short of news in Bloomington, which means Saturday won’t be short of storylines. Here are five things I’m watching when Indiana hosts Maryland:

The offensive line

On the week an offensive line coach is dismissed and replaced, it is the inescapable storyline.

Indiana’s offensive line has become the lightning rod for frustration about the direction of its season in 2022. In an operation as large and complex as a college football team, neither success nor failure are ever quite so reducible. But line play remains a primary concern for an offense stuck in first gear, and Darren Hiller’s firing only further brings it into focus.

Rod Carey says he’s not a miracle worker and swears there’s no magic wand to fix what’s broken. Indiana could use at least a little pixie dust, because by almost any measure, the Hoosiers have one of the worst offenses in the Big Ten.

'This wasn't the plan.' How Rod Carey became Indiana's offensive line coach

There are a small handful of positives, like a quiet-but-discernible ability to pop explosive runs on occasion. But beyond the fact it is moving about as fast as any offense in the country, and therefore getting as many plays and as many drives as almost any team in the country, this offense isn’t performing as it’s built to.

One week is an impossibly small window for Carey to make major adjustments. Six weeks isn’t much better. It does feel like Indiana could stand to try some fresh combinations and perhaps a handful of younger, higher-upside players on its line. But the Hoosiers have to give Carey some leeway to handle his new position his way.

Whatever he can do, IU needs, or an initially promising season will fizzle before Halloween.

Settled Bazelak

Talking point No. 2 goes hand in hand with point No. 1.

Bazelak has been sacked 15 times in Indiana’s past three games, and hit countless more. Official box scores credit opponents with 22 quarterback hurries against him in the past three weeks, a number that seems generous to the point of parody.

The results have been what you’d expect the results to be. The player whose starting tight end nicknamed him “Unfazed Baze” now looks visibly uncomfortable behind center. He struggles to hold pockets, appears to rush himself through progressions and can’t keep IU's offense moving consistently.

Is all that on an offensive line? No. Bazelak himself defended his blockers both Saturday and Monday, pointing out ways he could’ve been better. And more broadly, when there are 11 players on the field and the thing is malfunctioning, it’s probably fair to assume no one part of that thing is solely and completely to blame.

Again, this isn’t reducible to single quantities. A lot needs to be better for IU to play better. But there remains a distinct impression we still haven’t seen the best of a quarterback who never finished a season at Missouri completing fewer than 65% of his passes, but is right now converting just 52.5% of his throws in an IU uniform.

The better he is, the better IU plays. Everything everyone’s doing right now needs to put him in position to turn Step 1 into Step 2. All of it is interrelated. A rising tide lifts all boats as surely as a storm sinks them.

Turning over Taulia

Taulia Tagovailoa has a case as the Big Ten’s second-best quarterback behind Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud. He’s currently second in the Big Ten in completion percentage and passing yards, and third in touchdown passes. His completion rate is among the highest in the country among qualified passers, and he captains an offense that’s top-25 nationally in passing success rate and marginal efficiency.

In short, if IU wants to beat Maryland on Saturday, a lot hinges on getting to Tagovailoa.

If there’s a silver lining at all for IU, Tagovailoa is tied for the third-most interceptions in the conference, having thrown five in six games. An IU team that’s fourth in the conference in sacks and tied for fourth in turnovers gained should take some measure of hope from that.

Getting to Tagovailoa won’t be easy. Maryland’s healthy, efficient pass offense keeps the Terrapins on schedule, and they’ve only allowed 11 sacks through six games (Indiana, by comparison, has allowed 19). And his elite-level accuracy speaks to Tagovailoa’s ability to dominate a game through the air when he’s in rhythm.

Still, even if IU can’t force him to make the most catastrophic mistakes, the Hoosiers need Maryland’s quarterback to feel pressure and play uncomfortably. This looks like precisely the sort of game where Tom Allen’s havoc-minded defense needs to pressure an opposing quarterback into mistakes and then pay those off.

3rd-and-long

This might seem antithetical for a team that leads the Big Ten in passing plays of 10-plus yards, and is second in the conference in such plays of 20-plus yards. But Maryland isn’t statistically great in 3rd-and-long situations.

The Terrapins thrive on efficiency and rhythm. They have one of the best passing offenses in the Big Ten, but not the most explosive one (at least not always). It’s built around timing, and Tagovailoa’s accuracy and ability to convert short and intermediate throws quickly and regularly. That keeps Maryland on schedule, pushes defenses back on their heels and avoids 3rd-and-long situations.

Now, it’s worth saying here that few teams are good in 3rd-and-long. Generally, if a team wins with some long third-down distances — as Indiana has done on a couple occasions this year — that’s usually a bug, not a feature.

But Maryland, statistically anyway, is pedestrian here. The Terrapins are No. 69 nationally in 3rd-and-long success rate, and No. 104 in passing-down success rate. Maryland is also No. 120 in the country in passing-down marginal explosiveness.

This all layers together. Maryland wants Tagovailoa in rhythm, and its offense on schedule. Indiana remembers what that looks like — he threw for 419 yards in the Hoosiers’ loss in College Park last season.

Getting Tagovailoa out of rhythm keeps Maryland out of rhythm. That gets Maryland behind the chains. That puts them in obvious passing downs, when IU can try to force mistakes Tagovailoa doesn’t always make but can when forced. The cycle repeats. All of it is easier said than done, but Indiana has to find a way.

Bowl path narrowing

Maybe you’ve given up hope of a football postseason. Maybe you haven’t. In either case, Indiana probably needs to win Saturday for that possibility to remain realistic.

Again, how realistic remains up for debate. At time of writing, the Hoosiers are an 11.5-point underdog per Bet Online, and Bill Connelly’s SP+ projections rate the Hoosiers a 15-point dog. Those bowl hopes feel weak, but for the moment, they remain viable.

With Penn State, Purdue and trips to Michigan State and Ohio State on the November schedule, it’s unlikely Indiana can come out of this month with fewer than five wins and still maintain them. That makes Maryland on Saturday, and then the trip to Rutgers, must-wins.

Can it happen? Possibly. This team has offered glimpses of competitiveness this season, in all three phases. It still feels, however faintly, like there’s a world where Indiana puts that all together and makes a run.

But the Hoosiers need to put that run together starting now, or they probably never will. Saturday is a line-in-the-sand moment.

Follow IndyStar reporter Zach Osterman on Twitter: @ZachOsterman.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Indiana football vs. Maryland: A new OL coach and dwindling bowl hopes