IUS Economic Outlook breakfast sees brighter 2024

Libby Cunningham, The Evening News and the Tribune, Jeffersonville, Ind.
·2 min read

Nov. 15—NEW ALBANY — Indiana University Southeast, along with the Indiana University Kelley School of Business, held its Futurecast: 2024 Economic Outlook breakfast on Wednesday.

Key takeaways from the event, which featured a panel of business and finance experts, are that higher interest rates probably aren't going anywhere for a while and if there's a recession in 2024, it won't be extremely dire.

IU Kelley School of Business Assistant Dean Kyle Anderson; Kelley School of Business Associate Professor of Finance Kristoph Kleiner; IU academic journal Business Horizons Associate Editor Phil Powell, and Sanders Chair of Business at IUS Uric Dufrene all spoke as part of the panel.

All four hold doctorates and are well-versed in the field of finance and economics.

"We are feeling pretty good," Anderson said, adding that the unemployment rate next year will likely be a little over 4%, but interest rates will still be higher than normal.

"What we are looking for in 2024 is what we have accomplished," he said. "The proverbial soft landing."

Nationally some of the 2024 forecast highlights show that employment growth will slow and moderate job loss is possible. Despite large increases in interest rates over the past year, the economy did outperform expectations, however demand from consumers is expected to decrease next year.

Kleiner said that when it comes to the financial sphere now, it's all about the interest rate.

"Inflation peaked at 9 to 9.5% a year ago," he said. "(It's at) 3.2% as of a day or two ago."

He said those rates probably aren't going to go anywhere in either direction for a while.

"I think we will likely see maybe a minor recession," he said. "Nothing major."

Powell addressed the economy in Indiana, noting that although Southern Indiana is part of that, Clark and Floyd counties are also part of the Louisville Metro economy as well.

"We are kind of getting back to normal post-pandemic," he said.

He said capital-intensive manufacturing, as opposed to labor-intensive manufacturing, is also coming back.

"Manufacturing is coming back to Indiana," he said. "We are experiencing a renaissance."

Dufrene talked about the economic outlook close to home and said that he's not expecting a recession in 2024, but if there is one, it will be minor.

He said that higher interest rates are expected to weigh on consumers next year, which may cause consumers to pull back on spending.

Next year the unemployment rate in the region is expected to be around 4.5% and about 8,000 jobs will be added.

"Recession didn't occur in 2023," Dufrene said. "(Next year) we may escape a full-blown recession."