Jaguars improved from last year, still deserve below-average grades in first half of 2022

Few seasons in Jaguars history have compelled fans, players and coaches to play the "what-if" game like the first half of 2022.

The maddening outcome of absorbing six losses by one-score margins — squeezed around dominant wins over the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers in Weeks 2 and 3 — makes it a little more difficult to assign proper midterm grades for this snake-bitten franchise.

Does the Jaguars’ 2-6 mark, currently tied for the third-worst in the NFL, reflect a struggling team that had the same record at this point last year under the disastrous Urban Meyer?

Or are losses by 6, 8, 7, 7, 6 and 4 points — holding fourth quarter leads in four games and being tied midway through the fourth in another — a sign that Doug Pederson’s team is pretty good and on the verge of a breakthrough in the second half of the season?

There’s no definitive answer on that. The Jaguars so far have done the opposite of playing complementary football. Both sides of the ball are taking turns letting the other down at closing time.

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When it needs the Trevor Lawrence-led offense to put together a game-winning or game-tying drive in the last two minutes, the quarterback struggles to get it done.

And in those instances when Lawrence does deliver a go-ahead score in the fourth quarter and the Jaguars put the outcome in the hands of the defense, opposing quarterbacks Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson have connected on deep-ball completions to snatch victory from defeat.

“I think we just need to learn how to finish and put opponents away when we’re in position to do it,” said receiver Christian Kirk. “There’s been so many games where we take the lead late and we just can’t put them away. We’ve shown how good we can be in the two wins we had.

“That’s the frustrating part, is not being able to get back to that football. The fact that it’s there, it’s encouraging because we know we can play up to that level. It’s just finding that groove again.”

Many might say the Jaguars are the unluckiest NFL team, being 0-6 in one-score games after eight weeks. But the reality of a parity-driven league is close games are the norm, so the Jaguars are hardly alone being victimized in cruel fashion.

According to Elias Sports Bureau, this kind of misery is fairly common. The NFL single-season record for most one-score losses is nine, last done by the 5-11 Los Angeles Chargers in 2019 and equaled by 16 other teams since the 2-14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers first did it in 1983.

Two of the more excruciating Jaguars’ setbacks was the offense going limp in a 13-6 home loss to the woeful Houston Texans in Week 5. That was followed by the offense redeeming itself in marching 84 yards for 27-26 lead with 2:48 left at Indianapolis, only to have since-benched Colts QB Ryan answer on a 32-yard TD pass to rookie Alec Pierce to win the game 34-27 with 17 seconds remaining.

Adding to the Jaguars’ pain is they couldn’t hold double-digit leads of 14-0 at Philadelphia, 14-3 at Indy and 10-0 to the Denver Broncos in London, plus frittered away a 22-14 advantage in the final 10 minutes at Washington.

Of the Jaguars’ 480 minutes of football, they have held the lead for 234 minutes and one second, more than twice as long as the opposition (103 minutes, 59 seconds), yet have lost six times. Last year, the Jaguars only held a lead for 158 minutes, 12 seconds in the season’s entire 1,020 minutes.

Another confounding stat that speaks to the brutal misfortune of Doug Pederson’s team is they have a plus-14 point differential, the only losing team in the NFL besides the Cleveland Browns (+1) in that category, and four games below .500 at that.

Making a second-half turnaround more challenging — besides the fact six of the remaining nine games are against first-place teams or opponents on a playoff track — is both sides of the ball deserve equal blame for putting the Jaguars in this hole.

It’s never any one thing that sabotages the Jaguars. Some weeks it’s an inaccurate or fumble-prone quarterback, sometimes a defensive collapse, sometimes a dumb penalty, sometimes a red-zone blunder and sometimes getting tackled one yard short of the end zone on the final play.

For myriad reasons, the Jaguars can’t overcome their own incompetence or execute in game-deciding moments.

“Obviously everybody knows we haven’t been finishing, I can’t really explain it,” said outside linebacker Josh Allen. It’s about finding a way to make that play that puts us over the top. Until we make that play, it’ll never change.

“None of us are making the play that closes a game. We really could be a team that’s 7-1 or 6-2 right now, but we’re not.”

The Jaguars must find a way to resurrect the team that posted impressive wins over the Colts and Chargers, which is the only thing that kept the offense and defense from flirting with failure on this report card.

Offense: C-minus

Looking at the glass half-full, the Jaguars are a better offense than in 2021, raising their scoring average by about a touchdown from 14.9 points per game to 21.5 points.

The offense has also shown decent improvement on third down, raising its conversion percentage from 36 percent to 41.2 percent.

With Lawrence having the benefit of a Super Bowl-winning coach and former NFL quarterback in Pederson calling plays, there’s been an uptick in his overall performance. Lawrence’s touchdown-interception ratio of 10-6 is way ahead of his rookie year (12-17) and quarterback rating of 84.8 is a significant jump from 71.9 in 2021.

Those numbers upgrades — thanks to a better receiving corps with the additions of Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and tight end Evan Engram, along with the emergence of running back Travis Etienne — add up to the Jaguars being ranked a respectable ninth in total offense (363.0 yards per game).

But when you peel back the whole onion, it’s not entirely a rosy picture. The Jaguars simply aren’t good enough in pressure moments.

Three of Lawrence’s six interceptions came in the red zone. None were more galling than end-zone picks on 2nd-and-1 from the 7 against Houston and 1st-and-goal from the 1 against Denver. Those ill-advised throws took seven points off the board, both gaffes being major factors in close losses.

During the Jaguars’ current five-game losing streak, Lawrence has completed 96 of 166 passes for just 57.8 percent. He has only four TDs and five interceptions, adding up to a pedestrian QB rating of 72.6. Except for being 20 of 22 in the Colts’ loss, his game regressed in October.

While Lawrence’s shaky accuracy on deep-ball throws is a concern, it’s not as critical moving forward as avoiding the killer turnovers. He has to be more consistent in seeing the whole field, which will lead to making better decisions, especially with the offensive line protecting him (12 sacks) much better this year.

Lawrence fluctuates between making some exquisite throws, like the early 22-yard TD pass to Engram over cornerback Kareem Jackson against Denver, and shake-your-head misses. He was off target on several passes that should have been completions last week in London, including a fourth quarter overthrow on a backside screen to JaMycal Hasty that had big gain potential.

For now, Lawrence’s touch as a passer simply doesn’t match his physical gifts, like making a wide open Etienne reach out too much on a short pass on fourth-and-goal at the 3 against Washington. That incompletion was probably a lost TD.

The Jaguars are 15 of 30 in red zone efficiency, tied for 24th at 50 percent. While a quarterback’s completion percentage often goes down in the red area due to a compressed field, Lawrence has to be better than 18 of 42 (.428) if the Jaguars want to flip close-game results in their favor.

No element of the Jaguars offers greater hope for a better second half than watching the explosiveness Etienne brings to the offense. With James Robinson shipped off to the New York Jets, look for Etienne to get a lot more carries than his current 11.5 attempts per game.

The second-year back from Clemson is the NFL’s sixth-leading rusher with 571 yards, despite significantly fewer carries than four of the five backs ahead of him. He averages a robust 6.2 yards per attempt and is on pace for a 1,214-yard season, which would be the Jaguars’ best since Maurice Jones-Drew led the NFL with 1,606 yards in 2011.

The Jaguars must find more ways to get No. 1 the ball since he leads the team with 10 plays of 20-plus yards, including four on catches. In starting the last three games, Etienne has 356 yards and two TDs on 48 carries for a 7.4-yard average.

Beefing up the passing game was an offseason priority. It’s no surprise the Jaguars’ three free agent acquisitions (Kirk, Zay Jones and Engram) account for 101 of the team’s 173 receptions and 1,137 yards out of 1,840 receiving yards. But the receiving corps is still having issues hanging on to balls as the team’s 18 drops, per Pro Football Focus, are the most by a receiving corps for any one NFL quarterback.

Kirk (35 catches, 498 yards, 4 TDs) is putting up similar numbers to his output with the Arizona Cardinals last season, but must do a little more to justify the Jaguars’ massive investment.

As long as the offensive line stays healthy — Tyler Shatley has done a commendable job replacing the injured Ben Bartch at left guard — there's no excuse for the offense and Lawrence to not be more consistent the rest of the season.

With Trevor having more time in Pederson’s system and new players getting accustomed to playing with each other, this offense should step it up in the second half.

Defense: D-plus

Nobody would have envisioned this grade before October rolled around. After three games, the Jaguars were ranked fifth overall in total defense and No. 1 against the run.

Over the past five losses, Mike Caldwell’s unit has slipped to No. 18 in total defense and 12th against the run. No disappointment has been greater than its inability to get stops when games hang in the balance.

At least Lawrence delivered a couple go-ahead fourth quarter touchdown drives in the closing minutes of two games (at Indianapolis, Denver). However, both confidence-building situations were laid to waste because the defense couldn’t keep Ryan and Wilson from connecting on deep-ball passes, one that finished a game-winning drive and the other getting it started.

The same thing happened in Week 1 at Washington. A 22-14 Jaguars’ lead vanished in the final 10 minutes on TD passes of 49 yards to Terry McLaurin and 24 yards to rookie Jahan Dotson.

And if you want to get nit-picky, even when the Jaguars’ defense held up nicely against Houston, it still ended up giving that game away. Tied 6-6 and with the Texans stuck in 3rd-and-20, Travon Walker picked up a dead-ball, unnecessary roughness penalty to ignite the Texans’ game-winning drive.

Those late-game collapses by the defense are the difference between the Jaguars being 2-6 and quite possibly 5-3, fighting for the AFC South lead with the Tennessee Titans. On top of all that, the Jaguars by some data are leading the league in missed tackles.

It’s a razor-thin margin for error in tight NFL games, and the Jaguars’ defense keeps coming up small in big moments. The only red-zone trip (excluding kneel-down situations) where an opponent got no points was stopping the New York Giants on fourth-and-2 at the 3 early in the third quarter.

But that didn’t change a bad outcome. After containing running back Saquon Barkley and QB Daniel Jones most of the game, the pair went off for 122 rushing yards on the last two Giants’ scoring drives of a 23-17 victory.

Being a contender in the mediocre AFC South division should be plenty attainable for the Jaguars, but the defense being too suspect at inopportune times is derailing that opportunity.

Here’s a bothersome discrepancy: the Jaguars allowed 10 points total in their two wins, but 24.7 points per game in the six defeats. They’ve also allowed 14 touchdowns on 20 red-zone trips during those six games.

The pass-rush has been average to mediocre (14 sacks). Though outside linebackers Josh Allen and Walker are getting a fair amount of pressure, it’s not translating into sacks. Backup Dawuane Smoot is tied with Allen for a team-leading three sacks, achieving that playing on only 35 percent of the defensive snaps (194 of 547), compared to 81.5 percent for Allen (446 of 547).

With Walker playing 85 percent of the snaps (465 of 547), it might not be a bad idea for the Jaguars to give Smoot a higher volume to keep Allen and Walker a little fresher in the fourth quarter.

Unfortunately, the Jaguars don’t have as much pass-rush depth as they hope since K’Lavon Chaisson got hurt and has played only 28 defensive snaps.

Outside of cornerback Tyson Campbell (two interceptions), one of the bright spots on a shaky defense, the secondary must tighten up in coverage. With Shaq Griffin still bothered by a bad back, the options are limited on how the Jaguars can beef up the defense’s back end. Replacement Tre Herndon is a decent backup, but tends to be a little vulnerable giving up big plays.

This defense has the potential to be pretty good, but it must do better at making clutch plays. In the Jaguars’ last two losses, it couldn’t take full advantage of a Denver offensive line missing three starters or the New York Giants losing two to injury during the game.

The Jaguars have little chance of a second-half turnaround unless the defense stops going backwards.

Special teams – B

The Jaguars appear to have settled on a reliable kicker in Riley Patterson after two years of turmoil at the position. He’s the 13th kicker employed by the team since 2020. The Jaguars claimed him off waivers on August 31 from the Detroit Lions and he beat out James McCourt for the job.

So far, the decision has been a sound one as Patterson has converted 11 of 12 field goal attempts, including 10 in a row since banging a 37-yarder off the right upright in Week 1 at Washington. Patterson made his longest kick, a 52-yarder, in the 24-0 win over Indianapolis.

His only PAT miss in 17 attempts was on a block by the New York Giants’ Nick McCloud coming around the edge. Patterson also has a respectable 23 touchbacks on 39 kickoff attempts. But he knows his job security isn’t completely safe as McCourt remains on the Jaguars’ practice squad.

One of the Jaguars’ most consistent performers, fifth-year punter Logan Cooke, continues his career trend as being among the league’s best at his craft. The Mississippi State product is fourth in the NFL with a net average of 44.3 yards and fifth in gross average at 49.9 yards. He’s also put nine of his 26 punts inside the 20-yard line.

Since the NFL began tracking net punt average in 1976, Cooke’s career mark of 43.2 yards (minimum 250 attempts) in that category is best in league history.

From a coverage standpoint, the Jaguars are in the top half of the league at ninth in punt coverage (6.6 yards per return) and 15th in kickoff coverage (21.2 yards per return). Chris Claybrooks, one of the team’s fastest players, and Daniel Thomas have done a solid job as the team’s primary gunners in punt coverage.

The Jaguars haven’t been able to get much juice out of the return game this season after Jamal Agnew provided a huge spark last year with two touchdowns. Agnew, sidelined the past two weeks by a knee injury, hasn’t been able to find many openings. His longest kickoff return is 27 yards and longest punt return only 15 yards.

With an average punt return of 5.9 yards, the Jaguars are 27th in that department. Their kick return average is 21.9 yards, which ranks 13th in the league.

Hasty, claimed off waivers on August 31 and now a backup to Etienne at running back, showed some decent burst on his four kick returns (24.3-yard average). The return game is the one part of Jaguars’ special teams that could use an upgrade.

Coaching: C-plus

Pederson has done a good job of cleaning up the mess made by Urban Meyer’s dysfunctional leadership. He’s getting the players to buy into his program, even if the results are not to anybody’s liking.

Nobody can say Pederson or his staff haven’t put the Jaguars in position to win. The players just aren’t finishing.

Pederson’s team rides the roller coaster like few teams in the NFL. They can look good for long stretches of games, then fade in the homestretch.

The Jaguars’ coach often makes reference to “self-inflicted wounds,” and his team needs to work on reducing penalties. The Jaguars are 12th in the NFL with 50 penalties for 384 yards, about the same pace as the past two years when they incurred 104 and 107 yellow flags, respectively.

Another concerning trend about the Jaguars is they’re outscoring teams 93-30 in the first and third quarters, but are outscored 128-79 in the second and fourth quarters. That includes opponents winning 38-9 in the combined final two minutes of each half.

Pederson has to make better decisions at times. It’s doubtful he will elect to throw on 1st-and-goal from the 1 again with Etienne or other running options available.

Furthermore, Caldwell probably shouldn’t ask Herndon to play press coverage in a single high safety situation like he did to start the Broncos’ game-winning drive. That resulted in a 47-yard completion to KJ Hamler.

The challenge for Pederson and his staff the rest of this season is to make sure the positive culture being built has no wavering. While the Jaguars’ margin for error has evaporated to get back into playoff contention, they can’t wave a white flag with nine games to go.

Kirk sees no chance for that to happen, saying: “We have a mature locker room. I don’t think [the five-game losing streak] is an effect for us. I think there’s a leadership and maturity in the locker room to not let those doubts creep in.”

At this point, Pederson needs to focus on just getting one win and see if that can provide some kind of spark.

Remember, the Eagles finished 7-9 and were in last place in the NFC East his first season in Philadelphia (2016), then won a Super Bowl the next year. That’s an unlikely scenario in Jacksonville, but things have a way of changing fast in the NFL.

It’s up to Pederson to put Trevor Lawrence and a slumping defense back on a good path.

Gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540 

Gene Frenette Sports columnist at Florida Times-Union, follow him on Twitter @genefrenette

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Midseason report card: Jaguars improved but still grade below average