Jakub Kalenský: The information war against the Kremlin is far from over

Editor's Note: The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent.

There have been many optimistic takes claiming that Russia is losing or has already lost the information war against the West. This optimism is both misguided and dangerous.

“President Putin has comprehensively lost the information war in Ukraine and in the West,” said Sir Jeremy Fleming, the director of GCHQ, the U.K.’s intelligence, security, and cyber agency.

“Ukraine isn’t just winning the battle for hearts and minds online, it has already won,” wrote P.W. Singer, the co-author of "Likewar: The Weaponization of Social Media."

These are just a sample of the many similar opinions we hear throughout private conferences and debates, as well as public media commentary.

This optimism seems to be grounded primarily in two observations: a) that Ukrainians are not buying into the Kremlin’s propaganda, and b) that the West is still helping Ukraine resist the Kremlin’s aggression.

It is reinforced by circumstantial evidence that is eagerly seized on, like the claim that Russia is losing the information war because visitors to a conference in India laughed at Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov’s false assertion that Russia did not start the war.

Ukraine is heroically resisting not just in the military arena, but also on the information front. This could mean that Ukraine has become significantly stronger in the information domain since 2014, just as it has become much stronger militarily and in cyberspace.

Another factor to consider is that Russian crimes in Ukraine have crossed the line at which they could be excused by even flawless communication by the Kremlin. After all, it is always one’s actions that are the most important message – and the Kremlin’s actions are so atrocious that the horror and the responsibility for them cannot be hidden or blurred even by Russia’s massive disinformation machine, at least in Ukraine.

The resilience of Ukrainians is admirable and inspiring, and it does hopefully mean that Russian disinformation will not be successful there anytime soon. However, Russia’s lack of success in Ukraine does not tell us anything about Russia’s impact elsewhere, including on Western support for Ukraine.

This optimism and wishful thinking are not only misguided but also very dangerous.

Since the start of Russia’s renewed information aggression starting with the Revolution of Dignity in 2014, we have seen most of the democratic world struggle to react to the threat adequately and proportionally.

Government agencies, civil society organizations, and individuals countering the Kremlin’s disinformation in Europe are significantly outnumbered and outspent by Russia. They are regularly attacked not only by pro-Kremlin actors but also by various local enablers who wittingly or unwittingly facilitate Russia’s disinformation efforts. The Euro-Atlantic reaction to Russia’s disinformation onslaught remains inadequate, and even that inadequate reaction is constantly undermined.

The message that the West is winning the information war creates complacency and further weakens the already insufficient countermeasures to this problem.

We will have a much better chance to finally defeat the Kremlin’s propaganda if we honestly admit that it still presents a danger both in our own countries and globally, that it has achieved many successes, and that there are still years of hard work ahead for those of us who wish to repair at least some of them.