James W. Pfister: Cold war in the Pacific
Recently, President Joe Biden met at historic Camp David with leaders of Japan (Fumio Kishida) and South Korea (Yoon Suk Yeol). The purpose of the meeting was to shore up defense against China and North Korea and to tie together Japan and South Korea in a strategic amity relationship. Both are in a security relationship with the United States.
This should be seen in the larger context of other security relationships in the Pacific: the Quad (India, Australia, Japan and the U.S.), AUKUS (Australia, United Kingdom and the U.S.), and the dangerous relationship between the U.S. and Taiwan. The U.S. has also negotiated with the Philippines, its former colony, to provide for four new military bases. Peter Baker calls this expanding of defense “…working to stitch together various nations in the region in a sort of latticework of partnerships.” (The New York Times, Aug. 18, 2023.)
Is this a new Cold War in the Pacific? Is there an alternative to China-U.S. enmity?
Regarding enmity, there is no alternative: both sides must arm and prepare for war. In the game theory known as the “prisoner’s dilemma,” there is the choice to cooperate or defect. Mutual cooperation is ideal. But if one cooperates and the other defects, the defector wins big. Thus, when deciding independently, it is rational to defect, i.e., prepare for war in our current example.
But in the real world, as opposed to game theory, I believe it is possible to defect and cooperate at the same time. Our approach should be: prepare for war, pursue peace.
The meeting at Camp David did not produce a “mini-NATO,” as the Chinese dubbed it. NATO’s Article 5 requires that members act in defense of an attacked member; here, the commitment is to consult. But this has created a real partnership. It would “reinforce the expectation that the three would act in tandem.” (Baker, Ibid.) They agreed to meet at the leadership level annually, and they are to conduct military exercises. Indeed, on Aug. 29, 2023, they conducted a ballistic defense exercise in the East China Sea. (MDAA, “Missile Defense Mondays,” Sept. 4, 2023). Ominously, they also made reference to strong opposition to a change in the status quo by unilateral action, a clear reference and threat to China regarding Taiwan.
China and Russia have been exercising, too. They have recently conducted naval exercises around Okinawa, northeast of Taiwan. They have also operated near to Alaska. China has warned South Korea and Japan not to be drawn into the Taiwan issue: “’…no matter how yellow you dye your hair, or how sharp you make your nose, you’ll never turn into a European or American’.” (David Pierson and Olivia Wang, The New York Times, Aug. 19, 2023).
China is an economic powerhouse in the region. China is the No. 1 trading partner with both Japan and South Korea, the American allies here. Many look to China for upward mobility, being attracted to China’s dynamic economy. (Huizhong Wu, Associated Press, Sept. 4, 2023).
Unlike the prisoner’s dilemma, it is possible to choose both cooperation and defection with China. A growing, prosperous China will offer opportunity for trade, commerce, exchanges and tourism, but a military balance must be maintained. The future may provide a negotiated settlement regarding Taiwan, the major trouble spot. The problem is zero-sum and paranoid thinking on both sides. China seems to be paranoid about spies: the effect of the anti-spy campaign “has been to make even the slightest connection to foreigners grounds for suspicion.” (Vivian Wang, The New York Times, Sept. 2, 2023). Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., chairman of the House Committee on the Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party, says: “We are quite literally funding our own potential destruction (regarding) outbound investment in China.” (“Americans are unwittingly financing the CCP. It has to stop,” The Washington Post, Aug. 29, 2023). This thinking limits opportunities for mutual benefit.
As we move into the uncharted future, we must maintain military strength in enmity with opponents, but we can also choose to cooperate in reasonable ways. This is a new Cold War, but paranoia and zero-sum thinking are internal enemies of both sides, inimical to survival. President Franklin D. Roosevelt famously said that we have nothing to fear but fear itself. Prepare for war, pursue peace.
James W. Pfister, J.D. University of Toledo, Ph.D. University of Michigan (political science), retired after 46 years in the Political Science Department at Eastern Michigan University. He lives at Devils Lake and can be reached at jpfister@emich.edu.
This article originally appeared on The Daily Telegram: James W. Pfister: Cold war in the Pacific
