Jan Blachowicz vs. Israel Adesanya prediction | UFC 259 breakdown

Who will win Jan Blachowicz vs. Israel Adesanya? MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom offers his breakdown and prediction for the UFC 259 main event super fight in Las Vegas.

Video Transcript

DAN TOM: It's a super [? fight ?] [? at ?] [? the Apex. ?] Dan Tom here with MMA Junkie to help you break down the main event for UFC 259 between the Jan Blachowicz and Israel Adesanya. Blachowicz, who is the light heavyweight champion, has won four straight, winning 8 out of the last 9 in what has almost been a Rafael do Anjos-like run to the title. As Blachowicz has proven the pundits and pros wrong with his vaunted Polish power.

However, standing in his way this Saturday is an interesting test in the middleweight champion who is moving up in Israel Adesanya to try and take Jan's belt. Adesanya, who is undefeated in his MMA career since coming over from kickboxing, has looked impressive every step of the way, showing new [? folds ?] under City Kickboxing's Eugene Berman and the rest of the crew, including some underrated work in the wrestling department.

At the time of this video, the oddsmakers and public are siding with the challenger, the middleweight champion Adesanya at minus 230 with a comeback roughly in the neighborhood of plus 190 for the sitting light heavyweight champ Blachowicz.

Now, it can seem disrespectful to have a near 2 to 1 underdog for the sitting champion, but this is a champion versus champion fight. And there is hype but deserved hype on Adesanya as he's very difficult to pick against.

However, I will warn people that this fight could be much more competitive than the odds lead on. As Jan Blachowicz doesn't just shout his Polish power for nothing. He actually keeps his power deceptively off his lead side, though he will switch Southpaw.

As Blachowicz has admitted himself, he is a bit more of a lefty naturally. We see it in his power there with that left hook. He's got a powerful left kick that he was able to damage Dominick Reyes's his body, and, if Adesanya isn't careful when he switches to a Southpaw stance, well, Blachowicz could build upon maybe his 3 and 0 record against Southpaws.

However, Blachowicz's last defeat came [? with ?] Thiago Santos who did knock him out with a check hook from the Southpaw stance. And Adesanya especially taking the title from Whittaker or in his last bout against Borrachinha Paulo Costa, he reminded us that he has check hooks from both stances as well as a kicking game that is proven himself.

So for that reason, I will go with Adesanya. However, to see some of the things I'll be looking for, including some cage wrestling from the Polish power, you might want to check out my in-depth breakdown over at MMA Junkie where you can find results for all the big fights this weekend.