Japan Premier’s Woes Fuel Speculation About Potential Successors

(Bloomberg) -- Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s days in office may be numbered, with a recent poll showing an overwhelming majority of voters want the embattled leader out of the top job by the end of his term in September at the latest.

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While he’s attempted to salvage his government by ousting ministers accused of concealing campaign funds, it’s unclear whether he’ll be able to stop the fallout from spreading, after reports that his own faction in the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party is suspected of doing the same thing.

The following are some of the potential candidates to take over as leader, now that members of the party faction formerly led by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are likely to be out of the running due to the funding allegations. If the male-dominated LDP’s crisis deepens, it may even take the unprecedented step of picking a woman.

Read: Japan’s Kishida Removes Ministers in Bid to Stay in Power

“What’s needed is a clean and fresh image,” Koya Miyamae, a senior economist at SMBC Nikko Securities in Tokyo, said in a research note. “The first female prime minister has emerged as a possibility.”

Taro Kono

An outspoken maverick who has long been popular with the public and the LDP at large, Kono lost to Kishida in the last party presidential election due to a lack of backing from his parliamentary peers. Yet the fact he isn’t a member of a faction could prompt the party to turn to him to refurbish its tarnished image. The LDP has tried something similar before — in 2001 it picked Junichiro Koizumi — seen as an outsider in the party. Currently minister for digital transformation, Kono has a wealth of cabinet experience, having served as foreign minister and defense minister. He’s known for advocating an end to inefficient work customs like hand-stamping documents. Kono has softened his opposition to nuclear power in recent years. He’s expressed concern about Beijing’s rise and has said Japan should join the “Five Eyes” intelligence grouping comprised of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US.

Yoko Kamikawa

Foreign Minister Kamikawa is a Harvard graduate who ran her own consulting firm before going into politics. While she’s a member of the faction formerly headed by Kishida, she’s said her own political funding has been reported in line with the law. She is known for her efforts to promote women candidates, an uphill battle given that only 12% of LDP lawmakers are female. Kamikawa has also come under fire from activists for signing off on as many as sixteen executions, including six members of the Aum Shinrikyo doomsday cult, while serving as the justice minister.

Shigeru Ishiba

A former defense minister who has made several unsuccessful runs for the leadership, Ishiba has said it may be necessary to abolish the LDP’s factions if they are found to have broken the law and openly raised the possibility of Kishida resigning after the budget passes. Ishiba supported Kono in the 2021 party leadership election and has kept his distance from Kishida’s administration. Ishiba has previously called for reinvigorating domestic demand, particularly in the regions, to spur growth rather than relying on foreign trade.

Shinjiro Koizumi

The son of former premier Junichiro, Shinjiro Koizumi attracted attention in September for surfing off Fukushima in a bid to underscore the safety of the release of treated waste water from the wrecked nuclear plant nearby. A former environment minister and proponent of renewable energy who attacked government support for coal generation, he made headlines for marrying a well-known TV newscaster and for becoming the first serving cabinet minister to take paternity leave. He has largely kept a low profile since telling a 2019 news conference he wanted to make the fight against climate change “sexy” — a remark seen by many in Japan as a gaffe. In a sign he may be willing to take on his country’s vested interests, Koizumi set up a cross-party group in November to advocate for the introduction of ride-sharing apps to help resolve the shortage of taxi drivers.

Sanae Takaichi

A former heavy metal drummer turned hard-line conservative, Takaichi has cited the late UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as an inspiration. Though currently serving as minister for economic security, she set up her own study group in November, which raised eyebrows because it’s seen as a means of gathering support for a leadership challenge. The Sankei newspaper said only 10 people attended December’s meeting, well short of the 20 signatures needed if she is to throw her hat into the ring. Selecting Takaichi, a frequent visitor to Yasukuni Shrine, which is seen across the region as a symbol of Japan’s past militarism, would endanger the country’s recent rapprochement with South Korea and could further sour ties with China. She has advocated more reliance on nuclear power and expressed concerns about environmental damage caused by solar panels. Takaichi was an admirer of Abe and in her 2021 run for the leadership expressed support for his ultra-loose monetary policy.

Yoshimasa Hayashi

Currently chief cabinet secretary, a high-profile role that will see him speak to the media daily, Hayashi is a member of Kishida’s faction. A former foreign minister, he has been criticized by conservatives who see him as soft on China. He’s also a keen amateur musician, known for his renditions of Beatles songs. He plays guitar and keyboards in a band called Gi!nz, a homonym for the Japanese word for parliamentarians.

--With assistance from Takashi Hirokawa and Yuki Hagiwara.

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